Crawford Street Journal

On to Beantown

Marty Coleman — Fri, 01 May 2026 17:01:31 GMT

There were a lot of positives from Thursday’s second game, but the totality of the series was not what the Astros needed.

Winning 1 of 3 isn’t going to cut it.

The Astros 12-20 record leaves them tied for last in the AL West, 5.5 games behind the Athletics.

But it’s a new month and a new series, which brings new opportunities and maybe some new hope.

Updated Projections

We are now 19.8% of the way through the season and Yordan and Christian Walker continue to rake.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Decent starting pitching in both games of the doubleheader for Lambert and McCullers, Jr.

Quality Starts

The trend continues, but is unlikely to persist all season. My research has shown that about 70% of the time, if a team gets a quality start, that team will win the game.

It’s not rocket science, especially when a team can score like this one does.

Game Scores

Arrighetti leads the active starters.

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.

So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get a net of 12, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Yordan continues to pace the field, with Christian Walker gaining and Correa making a push.

Batters have combined for 6.3 fWAR, while the putrid pitching staff is at -0.1.

K-BB% Percentiles

I’ve heard a lot about this metric, particularly that it is a better predictor of success than ERA.

These are the Astros starters and their percentile rankings in this metric.

It’s still early, but here is the general scale:

Elite: 15-20%

Solid/Above Average: 12-15%

Average: 11-13%

Poor: Below 10%

As of this writing, the league average is 13.1% (for starters).

Then and Now

A new periodic segment comparing preseason projections to current projections to see how we are doing.

I did this with Christian Walker last time, and I enjoyed seeing how the actual results affected my projections.

Here’s Yordan, and it looks like I am going to miss this one by a mile, and I am thrilled about it.

My preseason projections are based on history, and unfortunately, Yordan’s recent history was an injury that caused him to miss the majority of 2025.

My model weights the most recent seasons more heavily and this resulted in a projection of only 91 games for Yordan.

That said, no one could have predicted the start Alvarez is off to, and the updated projections reflect his sizzling start and the reality that it’s unlikely to last for the entire 162-game schedule.

In just 32 games, Alvarez has gained: 19 points of average, 22 points on OBP, and 85 points on slug, not to mention 66 PA, 53 at-bats, 8 HR, and 15 RBI.

Astros Expected Wins

1-2 and outscored 20-17 since we last spoke.

AL West Expected Wins

They are still projected to end last in the AL West.

MLB Expected Wins

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On the Road Again

Marty Coleman — Tue, 28 Apr 2026 14:03:07 GMT

A quick three-game homestand is done, and the Astros now hit the road for the balance of the week with trips to Baltimore and Boston.

In theory, this should equate to a few wins, as both of those teams are under .500, but with the way Houston’s pitching has performed, I take nothing for granted.

The Astros 11-18 record leaves them dead last in the AL West, 4.5 games behind the, ahem, Athletics.

Updated Projections

We are now 17.9% of the way through the season.

One of my pet peeves is what I like to call “wasted roster spots,” which are essentially guys taking up a roster spot but simply aren’t playable.

The Astros, unfortunately, have a few of those, and the team is so injured that at least one, and sometimes two, of them have to play semi-regularly.

It’s tough to win when, on any given day, perhaps 22.2% of your lineup isn’t considered replacement-level Major League talent.

With no one at Sugar Land who is capable of helping, Joe Espada has to roll with what he has, and that’s not much.

For this offense to have the 4th-highest wRC+ and wOBA in the league, given the shape of the outfield, is remarkable.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Spencer Arrighetti to the rescue.

Kei-Wei Teng will add his name to the list later this evening.

Quality Starts

A nice start by Arrighetti to close out the Yankee series leaves the team 5-0 when they get a quality start and 6-18 when they don’t.

It’s not rocket science, especially when a team can score like this one does.

Game Scores

Arrighetti recorded a 72 on Sunday.

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.

So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

29 Starts: 3 A+, 3 A, 1 B, 3 C, 3 D, and 16 F.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get a net of 11, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Yordan continues to pace the field, with Christian Walker gaining and Correa making a push.

Batters have combined for 5.9 fWAR, while the putrid pitching staff is at -0.4.

If you calculate that out, it would mean the batters are responsible for 11.8 wins and the pitchers for -0.8 wins.

Incredible.

K-BB% Percentiles

I’ve heard a lot about this metric, particularly that it is a better predictor of success than ERA.

These are the Astros starters and their percentile rankings in this metric.

It’s still early, but here is the general scale:

Elite: 15-20%

Solid/Above Average: 12-15%

Average: 11-13%

Poor: Below 10%

As of this writing, the league average is 11.5%.

Then and Now

A new periodic segment comparing preseason projections to current projections to see how we are doing.

You may recall I was bullish on Christian Walker in the preseason, projecting improvement over his 2025 numbers.

I didn’t expect what Walker has done so far in 2026 (1.1 fWAR, 157 wRC+), and he won’t continue this pace for a full season.

Walker’s fast start has added 2 home runs and 7 RBI to my current projections.

Assuming Walker ends up with the updated projection numbers, that would equate to a ~120 wRC+ and ~2.1 fWAR.

While he’s not the defender he once was, I continue to believe his defense at first (0 OAA, 61st percentile) is underrated.

Astros Expected Wins

1-2 and outscored 24-14 since we last spoke.

AL West Expected Wins

They are still last in the AL West.

MLB Expected Wins

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The Formerly Evil Empire

Marty Coleman — Fri, 24 Apr 2026 15:04:27 GMT

Fresh off a series win in Cleveland, the Astros take on the New York Yankees over the weekend at Daikin Park, before another off day on Monday.

I mentioned to the kid a few days ago that the Yankees don’t really represent the Evil Empire anymore; the Dodgers have taken that title these days.

New York leads the AL East by two games at 15-9 on the season.

Updated Projections

We are now 16.0% of the way through a season that feels like it’s moving fast. The two off days within 5 calendar days should hopefully slow things down enough to catch our breath and perhaps earn a few more wins.

The roster churn continues as players keep getting hurt. Last I saw, Houston led the league with 16 players on the IL.

While JP France is back with Sugar Land, Christian Roa has been claimed by the Twins and apparently will not return.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Peter Lambert has been added to the growing list.

Quality Starts

A nice start by Lambert to close out the Cleveland series leaves the Astros 4-0 when they get a quality start and 6-16 when they don’t.

Game Scores

Lambert recorded a 70 on Wednesday

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.

So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

20 Starts: 2 A+, 3 A, 1 B, 3 C, 2 D and 15 F.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get a net of 10, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Yordan continues to pace the field, with Altuve going 0-for-Cleveland and making an error.

Batters have combined for 6.1 fWAR, while the putrid pitching staff is at 0.1 (at least it’s positive this time).

If you calculate that out, it would mean the batters are responsible for 9.8 wins and the pitchers 0.2.

Sounds about right.

K-BB% Percentiles

I’ve heard a lot about this metric, particularly that it is a better predictor of success than ERA.

These are the Astros starters and their percentile rankings in this metric.

It’s still early, but here is the general scale:

Elite: 15-20%

Solid/Above Average: 12-15%

Average: 11-13%

Poor: Below 10%

As of this writing, the league average is 13.0%.

Astros Expected Wins

Going 2-1 and outscoring the Guardians 16-10, added 4 wins to the Astros total, but…

AL West Expected Wins

They are still last in the AL West.

MLB Expected Wins

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Cardinal Sin

Marty Coleman — Mon, 20 Apr 2026 15:01:28 GMT

The disastrous start to 2026 continued over the weekend at Daikin Park as the Astros were swept by a middling-appearing St. Louis Cardinals team.

If there was a way to lose the Astros found it, with blame being shared by the bats, arms and gloves across three games.

On to Cleveland for the 8-15 Astros.

Updated Projections

We are now 14.2% of the way through the season; it’s still early, but it’s getting late quickly in Houston.

Dustin Harris joins the Astros. Ironically, Harris was one of my favorites when the kid and I ventured to Round Rock over the last couple of seasons.

Something about the way he carried himself said, “Major Leaguer” to me, but we’ll see if my observational skills are any better than my dubious scouting skills.

The Sugar Land Shuffle is busy on the pitching staff, with guys coming and going every day the team is in Houston.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Peter Lambert has been added to the growing list.

Quality Starts

Only the Nationals (1) have fewer quality starts than the Astros, with the White Sox, Rockies, and Athletics also having 3.

That is not a list you want to be on.

Game Scores

A surprisingly high score of 51 by Burrows on Sunday, given that he only went 4.2.

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.

So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

20 Starts: 2 A+, 2 A, 1 B, 3 C, 1 D and 14 F.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get 8, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Batters have combined for 5.4 fWAR, while the putrid pitching staff is at -0.4.

K-BB% Percentiles

I’ve heard a lot about this metric, particularly that it is a better predictor of success than ERA.

These are the Astros starters and where they rank percentile-wise in this metric.

Arrighetti gets another chance tonight.

Astros Expected Wins

Being swept in 3 games and outscored 23-14 means the Astros dropped 5 games in expected wins amid early-season volatility since we last got together.

Yikes.

AL West Expected Wins

No one’s running away with the West, but the Astros are running in the wrong direction.

MLB Expected Wins

Fixed the scale.

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Two Out of Three Ain't Bad

Marty Coleman — Fri, 17 Apr 2026 18:01:06 GMT

To say that the Astros have righted the ship would be very optimistic, given the state of their rotation and the performance of their bullpen over the first 20 games of 2026.

I would have felt much better with a sweep of Colorado, but that didn’t happen, as the offense fell short.

If this pitching staff holds an opponent, any opponent, to 3 runs, you have to win that game.

Updated Projections

We are now 12.3% of the way through the season; it’s still early, but we are beginning to get a feeling where the season ahead is headed.

Record by Starting Pitcher

The list of starters is growing daily and will continue to grow this evening with the Astros debut of Peter Lambert.

Quality Starts

Three quality starts in 20 games is not a good sign.

The chart below is a clear warning about not-so-good things.

Game Scores

Spencer Arrighetti’s 69 led the way in increasing the average to 41.9, but that is still far below the MLB average (50).

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.

So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

20 Starts: 2 A+, 2 A, 1 B, 2 C, and 13 F.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get 8, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Batters have combined for 4.8 fWAR, while the putrid pitching staff is at -0.4.

K-BB% Percentiles

I’ve heard a lot about this metric, particularly that it is a better predictor of success than ERA.

These are the Astros starters and where they rank percentile-wise in this metric.

Perhaps it’s just me, and it was a one game sample, but I find it fascinating that Colton Gordon is in the same percentile as Hunter Brown.

I’m also encouraged by Arrighetti and Lance’s numbers here, but again, small sample.

Burrows is disappointing as is Imai.

Astros Expected Wins

Early-season volatility is crazy. At this stage, this is nothing but laying the groundwork for a 162-game slog.

This ticked up 2 games with the results of the Colorado series.

AL West Expected Wins

The AL West is developing into an interesting follow.

I didn’t say great, just interesting.

MLB Expected Wins

Still early and I doubt any of the 100+ win teams stay there, with the exception of you know who, and even then it won’t be close to 120.

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Stuck at Six

Marty Coleman — Tue, 14 Apr 2026 16:00:56 GMT

The worst Astros baseball in at least a decade has the Astros in last place in the AL West and playing arguably the ugliest baseball in MLB.

There’s not much to say other than what Carlos Correa said post-game on Monday.

I would say the bright side is that the Rockies and Cardinals are dead ahead, but the Rockies contributed mightily to this spiral, taking all three last week in Colorado.

But we’re not just fans in good times. We’re here for the bad, too.

As Pat Green once sang, “Life would be awfully boring if the good times were all that we had.”

Updated Projections

We are now 10.5% of the way through the season; it’s still early, but it’s certainly time to be concerned about the injuries.

Maybe it wasn’t Jeremiah Randall’s fault after all.

The Sugar Land Shuffle is in full effect, with the yoyo of J.P. France, Christian Roa, and anyone else available.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Colton Gordon will get his shot at breaking the streak tonight.

Quality Starts

Quality starts feel like a pipe dream at this point.

The chart below is a clear warning about not-so-good things.

Game Scores

The team average has dropped from 45.4 to 40.6 since we last talked, down to 20% below the MLB average (50) over the 4 games in Seattle.

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.

So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

17 Starts: 2 A+, 1 A, 1 B, 2 C, and 11 F.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get 6, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Unfortunately, I didn’t have to change the sentence above since the second consecutive update.

Astros Expected Wins

Early-season volatility is crazy. At this stage, this is nothing but laying the groundwork for a 162-game slog.

AL West Expected Wins

Rangers and Mariners seize the lead.

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Strugglin' Stros Settle in Seattle

Marty Coleman — Fri, 10 Apr 2026 15:03:13 GMT

Well, that was quick.

In the span of 13 games, the Astros went from a team that couldn’t score (2 runs combined in their first two games) to a dominant offensive unit (the next 9 games) and back to a struggling offense that couldn’t stop anyone from scoring (the last two games).

What a ride it’s been, and there are 149 games to go.

But the Astros have real problems and real injuries to deal with.

As I type this, there have been no official moves on the Astros roster, but word is that J.P. France and Taylor Trammell are in Seattle, and it’s just a matter of time before they are added, with Cristian Javier and Jake Meyers being the unfortunate reciprocal moves to the IL.

As a result, I have included the anticipated moves below.

Updated Projections

We are now 8.0% of the way through the season, and it’s obviously still early and not time to panic, but it’s certainly a time to be concerned with Brown and Javier injured, not to mention Myers.

It will be interesting to see how the org navigates the pitching staff for the next little while, with two starters down and the bullpen ineffective.

Seattle is struggling, too, perhaps more than Houston, so it’s the movable force against the stoppable object in the next four.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Quality Starts

The same two lonely quality starts for a pitching staff that is nowhere near playoff-caliber.

The chart below is a big, gigantic flashing sign of not good things.

Game Scores

How bad has it been? Cristian Javier’s one-inning outing, where he had a score of 35, was the highest of his three starts.

Yikes.

The team average is 45.4, which is below the average MLB start (50).

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.

So, I’ve taken the scores and transformed them into a letter grade as you’d get in school.

This is a work in progress and not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through this in real time.

That said, look at the Fs.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get 6, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Unfortunately, I didn’t have to change the sentence above since the last update.

Astros Expected Wins

Early-season volatility is crazy. At this stage, this is nothing but laying the groundwork for a 162-game slog.

AL West Expected Wins

Rangers take the early lead.

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Raking Astros Head to Colorado

Marty Coleman — Mon, 06 Apr 2026 19:01:37 GMT

One of the more surprising turns of events early in the MLB season has to be the Astros bats.

Even if you were a preseason believer, I’m not sure you imagined the Astros leading the league in runs scored and a host of other numbers.

I certainly didn’t.

It’s a fascinating watch that will need to continue to support a less-than-stellar pitching staff that will be without its ace for the foreseeable future.

Updated Projections

We are now 6.2% of the way through the season, so it’s obviously still early.

We will see Brown’s numbers below decrease as the missed starts pile up.

Christian Walker is up to 95 projected RBI and is off to a fantastic start.

The only Astros really on the struggle bus early is Brice Matthews, who is rocking a .118/.211/.353 slash with a 52.6% strikeout rate.

Chandler Rome has posted that Roddery Munoz has been released, but I haven’t made the change here because nothing official from the team yet.

I sometimes write about wasted roster spots. This was one and this one is on Dana Brown.

Not sure what to say about Bryan Abreu, but Hader’s loss is proving to be a big one, even if it is temporary.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Quality Starts

None since we last talked, though Imai did have a Kikuchi Start and just couldn’t get the 18th out.

Obviously, Brown’s injury makes this tougher, and with Cody Bolton starting tonight, it will almost certainly fall to 2/11.

Game Scores

Two times through the rotation and Lance’s first start against the Red Sox is the high score at 75.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together and you get 6, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Astros Expected Wins

Early-season volatility is crazy. At this stage, this is nothing but laying the groundwork for a 162-game slog.

AL West Expected Wins

An early look at the AL West expected wins.

I’ll be back on Friday with the next update.

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Astros Off to Fast Start

Marty Coleman — Fri, 03 Apr 2026 15:15:44 GMT

After an inauspicious first two games, the Astros righted the ship and took the final two from the Angels and then swept the Red Sox at Daikin with surprising bats and excellent starting pitching from Lance McCullers, Jr. and Hunter Brown.

How surprising have the Astros bats been? Well, they lead MLB in batters’ fWAR.

Now THAT is surprising.

A while back, I posited that Yordan could make up to a 10-game difference if he was healthy. So far, that looks closer to true than hyperbole, and it could even be an understatement if he continues at this pace.

Next up, 10 games in 11 days on a roadie to Sacramento, Colorado, and Seattle (4 games), with the day off coming between Colorado and Seattle on April 9, which will be the last off day until April 23.

Updated Projections

Just 4.3% of the way through the season, all projections should be taken with a grain of salt.

As an illustration of how our rolling projections work, let’s take a look at a comparison of Altuve’s preseason projection and his current projection.

Jose’s hot early start has added 3 points to his projected average, 8 points to OBP and slug, and 16 points to his OPS.

An early home run bumps his current projection to 23, while his projected RBI remain at 68.

These projections are currently weighted 95.7% to preseason projections and 4.3% to actual season results.

The plan is to look at hot or cold players during the season to see how the season affects their updated projections as it goes on.

Quality Starts

The Astros have won both of their quality starts, but the problem (again, it’s early) is that they aren’t getting many.

Last season, the Astros won over 70% of their quality starts and less than 40% of games when they didn’t get a quality start.

It’s early, but they will fail if they only get 29% quality starts, a pace of 46 on the season.

Early Peak at Win Shares

I’ll pretty this up as the season moves along and put a chart to it, but wanted to share this early look at Win Shares for Houston.

Astros Expected Wins

From 0 to 106 in 6 games (getting shutout in game 1 means they were projected to go 0-162 after 1 game).

Early-season volatility is crazy. At this stage, this is nothing but laying the groundwork for a 162-game slog.

AL West Expected Wins

An early look at the AL West expected wins lines up this way: Astros, Rangers, Mariners, Angels, A’s.

Subjectively, that matches up with the early results for me.

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Splitsville

Marty Coleman — Mon, 30 Mar 2026 15:02:54 GMT

It’s finally time for the first update of the season, four games into a 162-game slog.

Remember - it’s early - something I had to tell myself repeatedly this weekend.

In fact, 4 games is just 2.5% of the way through a season, and any comments I make below should be kept with that - and the fact that 97.5% of the regular season remains - in mind.

First, the updated projections.

Season Projections

Field Notes

Random takeaways from the weekend, but remember to take these lightly at this point in the season.

Christian Walker looks much better with 3 doubles and 3 RBI over the weekend and only 1 strikeout over 16 plate appearances, along with a hard hit % of 66.7% and 95.6 average exit velo.
Yordan looks healthy. Let’s hope it stays that way. He was a big piece of the missing power from last year, but that said, no other Astro homered in the series.
Still concerned about the outfield, though Joey Loperfido was solid, and everyone had their moments.
Isaac looked smooth at second base, though there will be balls he can’t get to over the course of the season. Some of the offseason commentary led me to believe he would be a disaster there, and time will tell, but he played fine.
Yainer did not look interested in batting.
Jose Altuve seeing 78 pitches and walking 5 times over 18 plate appearances was something.
It looks like Espada is going to play everybody and not waste a spot (last season, he had players that would barely play over two weeks). Three different starting centerfielders in four games (yay), Isaac at second base, Loperfido at multiple positions, pinch running, etc.
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The rotation was ineffective and inefficient - guess which team leads the MLB in walks? Houston. Yikes.
Abreu’s Sunday velocity is a huge red flag.
Don’t understand Roddery Munoz at all. It’s like he’s learning how to pitch at the MLB level. Feels like a wasted spot that will cost the Astros a game at some point. This is something a rebuilding team would do.
Bullpen in general is a huge question mark, but Okert and King look solid.
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Astros Expected Wins

When you go .500 and are outscored, this is what you get early in the season.

Expected Wins - AL West

I’ll have these for all divisions eventually, but right now they are so wonky (Giants projected to go 2-160) they’re pretty useless.

These will fluctuate wildly early in the season. Just don’t be the Giants.

Thanks for reading, more on Friday.

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Composite Projections for 2026 Opening Day Roster

Marty Coleman — Thu, 26 Mar 2026 14:03:08 GMT

Opening Day for the Astros is finally here, and so are the composite projections for the 2026 Astros.

Below are projections for 24 Astro players on the Opening Day roster for the 2026 season.

There are no projections for Ryan Weiss or Tatsuya Imai because my projections are based on prior MLB history, and neither has any.

Projections for 2026 Astros Batters

Projections for 2026 Astros Pitchers

2026 AL West Win Total Projections

Here are the win total projections from yesterday, and you can read all about how we got there here.

I’ll be back on Monday with our first 2026 update!

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How the West was Won: 2026 AL West Projections and Win Totals

Marty Coleman — Wed, 25 Mar 2026 14:03:06 GMT

I tried everything I could think of, but being a numbers guy, I eventually had to face the music.

Despite being the lonely dude screaming from the mountaintop (is that where lonely dudes scream from?) that we can’t trust the fWAR projections, there is one immutable truth - fWAR is a 0-sum game, capped at 1,000 per season. If you have more, someone else has less or vice versa, and more often than not, the team with more wins.

Don’t misunderstand - I said more often than not, but not always.

So yes, there’s a chance for the Astros, just not a great one.

Fangraphs pegs such chances at 13.3% (1 in 7.5) to win the division and 33.7% to make the playoffs, while placing the Astros at 80.4 wins.

But more than that, the site projects the Mariners to compile 6.1 more fWAR than Houston (as of March 24).

It’s not shown well on the chart, but the Angels are at 29.5.

With 1,000 fWAR divvied out over 2,430 games, that means each win earns .41 fWAR across the league on average, or alternatively, about 2.4 wins per fWAR pm average.

Teams accumulate fWAR at different rates, so it’s not as simple as multiplying the estimated fWAR times 2.4 to estimate wins, and the Mariners are not going to win 113 games that calculation would give us.

But we know preseason fWAR is handed out like candy, 18% above the possible high, and adding that adjustment to the calculation brings me to these more reasonable projected win totals (and order of finish) for the AL West.

Important Caveats

Projections are fun, but almost always incorrect. After all, the players have to go out on the field and do it.

Injuries, of course, play a big role too, as any 2025 Astros fan knows. We know of some injuries that affected these projections, but there are many more we don’t know about because they haven’t happened yet and are impossible to predict and time.

Trades, as the season goes along and most obviously around the trade deadline, are also something that can shift the projected win total of a team.

For those reasons and many more, understand that this is just a starting point and not the end.

Last Year

One of my big issues with the fWAR projections is that it assumes, almost literally, that everyone is going to get better.

Take the AL West, for example.

Every team is expected to get better (fWAR-wise), with the Angels apparently re-signing Shohei while we weren’t looking.

This is largely true across the league - everyone gets more fWAR! That isn’t possible; as noted above, the league’s upper limit is 1,000.

But this chart is instructive in at least one sense - the teams finished in the order of fWAR accumulated (red bars).

Starting from Behind

The conclusion I’ve come to with all of this is not that the Astros can’t win the West, it’s that I wouldn’t project them to, and that they are starting from behind and have a long way to go to catch up, at least theoretically.

As mentioned, injuries, trades, over- and underperformance can go a long way to closing (or widening) the gap.

But there are real concerns with the 2026 version of the Astros - their rotation is full of questions, the bullpen is injured, the outfield might be one of the least productive in MLB, and that’s just off the top of my head.

This position-by-position breakdown speaks volumes.

At the starting pole, the Mariners have the advantage, and it’s a significant one.

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2026 Projections: Lance McCullers, Jr., Steven Okert and Bennett Sousa

Marty Coleman — Tue, 24 Mar 2026 14:03:34 GMT

Our final three projections prior to projecting the AL West (Wednesday) and posting composite projections on Opening Day (Thursday).

Lance McCullers, Jr.

If the numbers below look familiar, it’s because they are Lance’s from last season, and I’m starting his 2026 the same way (similar to how I would project a rookie), since the only relevant experience McCullers, Jr. has is last season.

There are projection systems that project him to throw 113 or 120 innings. That could happen, but I’m not going to project that.

I’ll start conservative and build on it as the season matures.

For what it’s worth, Lance is in the final year of his contract, and I imagine his last year with the Astros.

He has been named the 5th starter to begin the season.

Summary: Priors are pretty useless in Lance’s case because, simply put, he isn’t remotely the same pitcher he was pre-injury. That leaves me grasping at what this season will look like. As mentioned, some projection systems are more bullish than I am. I’ll have to see it first.

Steven Okert

With Hader and Sousa out to start the season, Okert will see an increase in responsibility and leverage.

Okert was exceptionally good last season in an under-the-radar kind of way, and the Astros are going to need that and more this season.

While I don’t think 2025 was a mirage, some regression is likely due for Okert, but that doesn’t mean he won’t contribute positively to an Astros bullpen full of questions.

Summary: Okert profiles as a solid mid-tier reliever contribution for 58 IP: better-than-replacement value from strong strikeouts and control, offset by moderate HR allowance and lower leverage than a closer.

Expect some regression in FIP, with increased leverage (0.89 last season).

Bennett Sousa

The “Astros Killer,” otherwise known as an oblique injury, will sideline Sousa to start the season, and it sounds like it may be a while before he gets back.

This is a big blow to the Astros bullpen as the left-handed Sousa was nails out of the pen last season, posting a 2.84 ERA and 2.72 FIP across 51 innings.

The projections below reflect a semi-educated guess on the length of Sousa’s absence.

Some minor regression is expected in fWAR, ERA and FIP.

Summary: Sousa provides strong value for just 34 IP: elite peripherals drive solid above-replacement production, with leverage boosting Sousa’s profile despite limited volume. Comparable to a good setup man or part-time closer.

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2026 Projections: Josh Hader, Cristian Javier and Bryan King

Marty Coleman — Mon, 23 Mar 2026 14:02:05 GMT

As the season closes in, we continue our pitcher projections and explain the plan moving forward.

The Plan

With the Astros opening on Thursday, the plan is to finish up the projections tomorrow (Tuesday), with Lance McCullers, Jr., Steven Okert, and Bennett Sousa.

There will not be projections for Tatsuya Imai or Ryan Weiss because they have no MLB experience, though others have made projections for both players here and here.

There may be a few others that make the roster as a surprise, but their impact will likely be minimal; I’ll figure out how to handle them, if at all, when that time comes.

I’ll post an AL West projection on Wednesday and a composite of player projections on Thursday.

The current plan is to update the projections on the opening day of each series, but there will be exceptions.

Josh Hader

Josh Hader starts the season on the IL, and it’s a mystery as to whether it’ll be two weeks, a month, or longer until he sees live action in an MLB game.

Knowing this, I made a semi-educated guess, and this projection reflects the time he is likely to miss.

It turns out very close to 2025, not just in traditional stats, but also in fWAR and FIP.

Summary: Hader is still one of the game’s best closers when healthy, and the high strikeout rate and closer role give Hader solid value despite only 49 IP. Hopefully, we see Hader before April is out because the downstream effects on the Astros bullpen become more of an issue each game he misses.

Cristian Javier

There’s been good and bad for Javier this spring, covering 10.2 innings. 8.4 K per 9 and 5.1 BB per 9, wrapped around a 1.69 ERA and 4.97 FIP.

There are concerns about the velo on his four-seam fastball, which begins outings mediocre and then slows noticeably.

Keep in mind that he faced roughly Double-A-level competition, per Baseball-Reference.

Overall, I would say it’s promising, but the sample is tiny, and the walks are a concern.

My projection is for slightly more production than last season, with regression in FIP to pre-injury levels.

Summary: Javier is a difficult one to project, as FIP has rarely matched production, even in good years, giving you the sense that regression was always coming.

The fastball velo is something to keep an eye on.

This is a reasonable partial-season value for a #4–#5 starter (league-average-ish FIP, ~5 IP/start average). Full-season pace would be ~2.5–3.0 fWAR if sustained over ~150–180 IP, but that’s a pipe dream with Javier’s injury history.

Bryan King

A personal favorite in this house that we have affectionately nicknamed “Burger King”, he’s given the Astros a really good season and a half.

The appearances are surprisingly low, but part of that is that his usage is likely to be more conservative in the setup role.

The fWAR includes a bump for his likely early-season set-up role while Hader is on the mend, and interestingly enough, the FIP stays exactly the same.

Summary: King projects another very good reliever season: elite K rate, low ERA/FIP, moderate volume. His numbers are comparable to those of top-30 relievers in recent years. Depending on when Hader returns and King moves back to a 7th inning role, the fWAR could project closer to 0.9.

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2026 Projections: Hunter Brown, Mike Burrows, and Enyel De los Santos

Marty Coleman — Fri, 20 Mar 2026 14:03:10 GMT

As the season closes in, we continue our pitcher projections, with an interesting combination of the undisputed (finally) ace, an intriguing add, and a regression candidate.

Hunter Brown

How consistent has Hunter Brown been? He’s pitched in 31 games in each of the last three seasons, and I have him, unsurprisingly, projected for 31 more this season.

That’s the good news; the bad news is that if he pitches in any less, the Astros are likely out of the AL West race.

I argued that Brown was the ace last season, but now there is no question that Brown leads this staff.

While you may be surprised that my numbers show some regression in fWAR, this is not out of line with the professional projections, and, in fact, mine is higher than any on FanGraphs.

Similarly, there’s a minor regression in FIP, but it is still in the elite range.

Summary: Brown’s Baseball Savant page is covered in red, meaning he is elite in almost every category and probably one of the best 10 pitchers in the game.

Despite the regression in FIP, it is still elite, and if defense/sequencing holds and peripherals stay strong, his fWAR could nudge 4.5+. This is a very good-to-great season for a rotation anchor — a durable, effective pitcher with high upside.

Mike Burrows

Burrows is a tough one to model, given a 1 game trial in 2024 and the way he was used by the Pirates in 2025, so more than most, I would take this with a grain of salt (as you should all projections, mine or others).

Seeing the “2” in the projected win column doesn’t really feel right, but that’s what the model spit out for someone with Burrow’s MLB history.

As opposed to wins, I would focus more on IP, ERA (to some extent), and FIP.

Summary: The 3.57 ERA looks good, but fWAR credits the FIP more than runs allowed, suggesting some positive sequencing/luck that may regress slightly. Burrows profiles as a fringe #4/5 starter or swingman with average-ish stuff and good health.

The Astros have a history of making these types of pitchers more than they profile as, so I’m optimistic this is the floor.

Enyel De los Santos

I had no idea who De los Santos was when the Astros acquired him, but my son’s scouting report was not positive.

De los Santos was better than expected with the Astros and looked like he belonged at the MLB level after ups and downs at several stops.

It’s important to know what De los Santos is and what he is not.

Bullpens are notoriously unpredictable from season to season and one look at De los Santos’ history provides an example.

It’s a roller coaster.

Summary: De los Santos is a typical middle/lower-leverage reliever, an innings eater with okay stuff but HR vulnerability.

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2026 Projections: Abreu, Arrighetti and Blubaugh

Marty Coleman — Thu, 19 Mar 2026 14:03:00 GMT

On to the pitchers we go, as we are just about a week away from first pitch against the Angels.

Bryan Abreu

Abreu has been living on the edge for three years now and is doing just fine, thank you very much.

His role increases in the early part of this season (at least) as Josh Hader ramps up from a biceps injury.

Hang on, Astros fans, as there are few 1-2-3 innings in Abreu’s game, but in the end, he gets the job done far more often than not.

The numbers above were compiled prior to the Hader news, so the saves are likely low, but they will adjust as the season plays out.

Summary: Abreu profiles as a solid setup reliever, reflecting the strong peripherals and innings. Elite setup/fire guys can push 2.0+ fWAR, but Abreu’s profile is very good without being dominant (not 14+ K/9 or sub-2.00 FIP).

Spencer Arrighetti

I haven’t been the biggest Spencer Arrighetti fan, as I feel the hype has not matched the results.

Add in that he’s coming off an injury, and it’s a bit of a mystery to me where he fits when the Astros go back to 5 starters.

That said, assuming health, you can never have too many arms, and with Arrighetti having options available that could be the short-term answer (Roster Resource has him pegged for AAA).

Summary: Arrighetti profiles as a typical back-of-the-rotation starter who provides innings with decent strikeout ability but is hurt by the high ERA.

AJ Blubaugh

Blubaugh provided a shot in the arm and was electric out of the pen in 2025, a 0.1 fWAR and 1.69 ERA over 32 innings.

The reason for concern is an average 4-seamer (94.6) and less-than-spectacular peripherals, which scream regression candidate over a larger sample.

By now, you know the drill - my projection is the same as above, but I’m hopeful Blubaugh will be available and effective for the entire season, blowing my projections out of the water.

Summary: Blubaugh showed elite strikeout ability but vulnerability to home runs and some walks. The tiny ERA is not projectable over a full season. A realistic full-season projection assumes regression to a more average BABIP/luck, sustaining good but not elite K-BB, and a HR rate that stays moderate-high unless stuff changes.

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2026 Projections: Taylor Trammell and Christian Walker

Marty Coleman — Wed, 18 Mar 2026 14:03:06 GMT

The final two, at least for now, offensive players for the 2026 Astros.

I may add a couple more, if roster decisions warrant, but this will wrap up the bulk of batters.

Taylor Trammell

Once again, Taylor Trammell is battling for a spot on the Astros roster, and there appears to be a difference of opinion on whether the non-roster invitee will make the team out of the spring.

Chandler Rome has Trammell on his 3.0 version as of March 16, but Roster Resource does not.

I don’t think it’s a big deal either way, because I’d be surprised if Trammell makes a major impact before someone takes his spot.

He simply hasn’t produced at the MLB level.

My son says that when Trammell hits the ball, it goes a long way, but he doesn’t hit it enough (30.4% Ks last season) to add much value.

Summary: Small sample, lots of volatility, but based purely on his stats and average defense, expect a very poor ~75 wRC+ and near 0 fWAR (or even slightly negative).

Christian Walker

Somewhere along the line, I wondered if I had projected anyone to improve year over year, and then I hit Christian Walker.

Not the guy most would want to project improvement on, after his disappointing 2025.

In fairness to Walker, he did hit 27 home runs (I projected 30), but a bunch came late in the season, and his underlying stats were disappointing, including striking out 177 times. Yikes.

Why would I project wild numbers like the fWAR below for such a big disappointment?

My model sees 2025 as an outlier; looking at Walker’s history, it was, as Walker posted fWARs of 3.9 in 2023 and 3.1 in 2024.

Even if you believe he hit the proverbial cliff, which is definitely a possibility, the drop from 3.1 to 1.1 feels like too much, and he’s due for some positive regression in 2026.

Summary: No longer a star, Walker can be a positive-impact player well above replacement level. He’s a dependable, power-focused above-average first baseman, a solid offensive contributor relative to his position, with average-to-good glove work keeping overall value strong for an everyday role in 2026.

A 3.8 fWAR sounds like a lot, but I’m betting it’s closer to that number than it is to last season’s 1.1.

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2026 Projections: Loperfido, Salazar, Smith

Marty Coleman — Tue, 17 Mar 2026 14:02:18 GMT

It’s a three-projection day at Crawford Street Journal with the return of Joey Loperfido, fan favorite Cesar Salazar and the kid, Cam Smith up today.

Joey Loperfido

Returning to the Astros fold after a year-plus in Canada, Joey Loperfido is a left-handed bat who broke in with the Astros in 2024 and was sent to Toronto in the Kikuchi deal later that summer.

He thrived in Toronto last season in limited playing time and was re-acquired for Jesus Sanchez in the off-season in a move that earned the Astros some salary relief.

Loperfido has an opportunity for extensive playing time in the corner outfield spots, especially if someone like Zach Cole doesn’t make the roster out of the spring, and in fact, Roster Resource has Loperfido starting in left as of this writing.

That said, the projections are mediocre as there is a ton of swing and miss in Loperfido’s profile.

To date, he has 122 MLB strikeouts and just 17 walks.

Summary: Loperfido could develop into a solid everyday player, but he could also end up on the replacement-level fringe if defense and/or offense dip.

He feels like a platoon player as his career OPS+ is 105 vs. RHP and just 78 vs. LHP, with 80% of his MLB plate appearances coming against RHP, and asking him to be an everyday player at the MLB level is more of a commentary on the Astros roster than Loperfido’s skill level.

Cesar Salazar

We are Cesar Salazar fans in this house.

Sure, he’s thought of as an organizational player who’s been forced to the MLB level out of desperation three straight seasons. It’s apparent the Astros are not comfortable with him as a full-season backup and have signed a couple of veterans “just in case”.

As the old saying goes, it is what it is.

Salazar will do fine when given the opportunity, but those opportunities will be few and far between, even when he’s on the Big League roster.

Given that he has 0 options remaining, the Astros may lose him when that decision is required to be made, or, as the Astros are wont to do, they may keep him so they don’t have to face that choice.

Summary: Salazar is a classic average backup catcher profile — weak power bat (sub-90 wRC+), but on-base help in spots keeps overall value positive in a bench role.

As seen in the wRC+ history above, the tiny sample limits precision (or anything close to it), but this fits the archetype of a serviceable third catcher/emergency option rather than a high-end backup.

Cam Smith

No charts here, as Smith is another where my rookie rule applies: His projections for this season start with what he did last season, nothing more, nothing less, and for Smith, that means a 90 wRC+ and a 1.0 fWAR that will be updated as 2026 develops.

There was so much hope and hype about Smith in 2025, but it looked like he was exhausted mentally and physically by the time August rolled around, struggling to a 25 OPS+ in August and a 93 in September.

Above, I suggested Loperfido could be a platoon candidate, and this could be his counterpart.

The right-handed-batting Smith has extreme splits: 132 OPS+ vs. LHP and 72 vs. RHP.

Roster Resource has Smith as the everyday right fielder, and the professional projections are for modest gains - ~1.2 fWAR and 96-98 wRC+.

I dare say, a team with 3 HR from their centerfielder will need more than 9 from their right fielder.

Summary: The offensive output is below what you would expect from a right fielder, but Smith provides above-average defense and some baserunning value, which elevate Smith to a positive contributor and a dependable contributor in 2026.

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2026 Projections: Jeremy Pena and Isaac Paredes

Marty Coleman — Mon, 16 Mar 2026 14:03:03 GMT

Projecting 2026 stats for what the left side of the 2025 infield was for most of the season brings mixed emotions.

Jeremy Pena, of course, is out with a fractured finger, while Isaac Paredes is learning to play second base, at least part-time, while the Astros dangle him in trade talks.

To say 2026 has started out inauspiciously for both players would be an understatement, and, for our purposes here, makes projecting their numbers more difficult.

Jeremy Pena

Pena is always difficult to project as which do you believe is more likely to happen? The mediocre offense of his first three seasons (102, 96, 99 wRC+) or his breakout 2025 (135 wRC+)?

Cases like this are why I use a model, because most people tend to think performances, especially for their favorite player or team, are linear and generally up and to the right.

The good news is that the professional projection systems generally agree with me; the bad news is that I’m expecting some regression.

Pena’s defense has also fluctuated greatly over the last three seasons, going from the 76th percentile in OAA to 28th and then way up to 96th in 2025, and likely regressing to a more moderate number this season.

Summary: Pena is a legitimately good shortstop overall — solid bat (well above position norms), plus speed, and reliable defense make for strong two-way value and everyday viability.

Expecting more out of him than 2025 seems foolish, as some regression is likely both offensively and in the field.

Isaac Paredes

My model accounts for a lot of what occurs on the field, but nothing that occurs off of it, like trade rumors, learning a new position, and the like.

It will be a fascinating study as I feel like Paredes is undervalued, at least in the way the Astros are handling his situation, and he was having a fantastic 2025 pre-injury.

Paredes’ defense at third is mediocre, and if he does end up playing second, it will likely be an adventure.

But his is a bat the Astros desperately need in the current iteration of their offense.

Summary: A dependable, bat-first average third baseman — strong on-base and power skills make the offense a plus relative to position averages, while average defense and low speed keep overall value in the good-but-not-elite starter range. If the glove grades slightly below average or first base (or second base, for that matter) time increases significantly, it could dip toward 3.0-3.5; if defense holds average and plate appearances climb, it pushes higher.

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2026 Projections: Brice Matthews and Jake Meyers

Marty Coleman — Sat, 14 Mar 2026 16:30:28 GMT

Brice Matthews

Dana Brown’s first draft pick as Astros GM made his MLB debut in 2025 and provided some pop, including a two-home run game, but struggled at the plate overall, while providing solid defense in limited opportunities.

Similar to Zach Cole’s projections, my numbers will duplicate last year’s production (0.1 fWAR and 83 wRC+) until I have further evidence of his MLB production.

At the time of this writing, Matthews is having an OK spring, slashing .222/.323/.296 with 7 RBI and 5 stolen bases, albeit against something around AA pitching on average, but the strikeouts continue to haunt (10 in 27at-bats). If Pena is healthy, Matthews may be headed back to Sugar Land.

Summary: Flashes of pop (4 HRs!), but horrific plate discipline and contact make it a low-value line overall.

Barring injury, I don’t see a path to consistent playing time, and in a full-season extrapolation, it'd be negative WAR without massive improvement; positional flexibility, athleticism, and speed keep it from tanking completely.

Jake Meyers

When healthy in 2025, Jake Meyers had a fantastic year in multiple ways, hitting .292 and recording an Outs Above Average in the 96th percentile.

But somewhere along the way of becoming a serviceable hitter, Meyers gave up what power he had (10 HR in 2023 and 13 in 2024) for average (3 HR last season, two in one game).

Simply put, Houston needs more power from centerfield, and hopefully it’s not at the expense of 75 points of batting average.

To that end, there’s talk of Meyers being traded this spring as various players audition at the position (including Matthews).

I’m not sure that I agree with that, but I do understand it and I believe Jake does, too.

I expect to see a return to closer to Jake’s pre-2025 bat, with a little more power and less average, which may or may not be enough for a 9-hole hitter.

Summary: Meyers provides mediocre-to-weak offense, but elite center-field defense and plus baserunning, which make him a positive contributor and a valuable everyday player.

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