Crawford Street Journal

The Last Game

Marty Coleman — Tue, 27 Oct 2026 19:30:52 GMT

It may not be tonight, but it will be some night soon that the World Series, and the 2026 MLB Season, ends and our perhaps long nightmare begins.

Sometime soon we’ll watch the last MLB baseball game for who knows how long.

Everyone understands that on December 1, the players will almost certainly be locked out by the owners, and no one knows when that will end or whether there will be MLB games in 2027.

My son is currently being optimistic, choosing to believe that those predicting a long lockout said the same thing last time around and look how that ended up.

Until he hears something “official”, he believes too much is at stake for both sides to miss an entire season.

Me, I’m older, have been through more in life, and believe more along the lines of “If there’s a way to screw it up, both sides will.”

With the “it” being the sport of baseball.

It’s really human nature, or as Don Henley once sang:

What are these voices
Outside love's open door
Make us throw off our contentment
And beg for something more?

Being famous and rich isn’t enough for either side, apparently, when there is more to be got, and both sides are “begging for something more” despite doing quite well at the moment.

I know it’s big business and more complicated than that, but it’s difficult to see from a working man’s day-to-day perspective, even one that spends thousands of dollars a year on baseball games.

I don’t pretend to understand the issues deeply, but I do know fans want to see baseball and they will pay to do so.

I’m just wondering if “they” will give us the opportunity to do so?

For me, I have a plan for this site if there is either a late start to the 2027 season or no 2027 MLB season at all.

My son and I will travel the state to see minor league games and prospects we otherwise wouldn’t be able to see, and I’ll have more disposable income and time to travel.

I’m looking forward to watching the guys who are still trying to make it, the future stars, that is, if the owners and players don’t kill the sport before they get there.

Sometime soon we’ll see the last out of the 2026 season, and for many fans that might be the last out they ever watch of MLB.

We say it every time, but it’s really a shame that it’s come to this.

It’s also predictable and purposely done.

That’s the real shame.

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A Walking Disaster

Marty Coleman — Tue, 13 Oct 2026 15:02:53 GMT

As I watched Mason Miller walk the bases loaded in game two of the NLDS and eventually surrender the lead and the game, two thoughts crossed my mind.

First, “So it’s not just the Astros”, and the second, “Just how bad were the Astros at this?”

The answer is damn near historically bad.

The MLB BB% has been creeping up year over year, from 8.2% in 2024 to 8.4% in 2025 to 8.9% this past season.

Meanwhile, after dipping from 9.0% to 8.4% from 2024 to 2025, the Astros pitchers’ BB% shot up 2.1% year over year to finish 2026 at a whopping 10.5%.

That jump and its place on the graph made me wonder just how bad they have been historically, say since they won their first World Series title back in 2017.

Bad. Real bad.

Houston’s 10.5% this season appears to be the second-worst BB% of any team over a full 162-game season in the last 9 seasons (excluding the 60-game schedule of 2020). The only worse rate came during the 2023 season by the Oakland Athletics.

The A’s lost 112 games that year.

That makes Houston’s 2026 performance more extreme than I initially realized.

They weren’t just bad; they were nearly historically bad.

The Astros used a lot of arms this season, but it was more than just that.

Hunter Brown’s BB% went from 7.8% in 2025 to 12.2% in 2026, Bryan Abreu’s from 10.5% to 15.3%, while others (De Los Santos, Blubaugh, and Okert, for example) went down to varying degrees.

So, while not every pitcher had a problem throwing strikes, this was a team-wide issue. You don’t walk 650 batters at a rate seen once in 9 seasons without it being a widespread issue.

Think about it this way: those 9 seasons mean there were 269 teams (30 x 9 minus the 2026 Astros) that had a chance to walk batters at a higher percentage than the 2026 Astros did.

Only one was worse. One of the last 269 = 0.0037% of teams had a worse walk rate than the 2026 Astros

Root Cause?

With the league BB% creeping up, one has to wonder if ABS has something to do with this, at least the 2026 jump, but why would the Astros suffer so badly?

For me, it’s likely pretty simple: the quality of the arms and perhaps a dash of ABS.

Dana Brown went with a lot of arms without, or with minimal, Major League experience, from Imai to Weiss to Bolton to Roa and on and on. Throw in ABS and injuries, and you have the mess we saw in 2026.

In the Championship seasons of 2017 and 2022, the Astros were below the league average in walks.

Yes, I know who was on those pitching staffs, and I know the current staff is nowhere near that level - that’s the point.

This can’t be fixed on the margins. It’s a team-wide epidemic from the “ace” to the last guy in the bullpen.

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Astros GM: No-Win Situation or Challenge Accepted?

Marty Coleman — Thu, 08 Oct 2026 16:01:40 GMT

A hundred years ago, I took a job few wanted, one fraught with personal and professional conflicts.

It was thought of as “no-win”, “everybody will hate you”, “I couldn’t do that”, and similar terms.

It involved automating processes (told you it was a long time ago) to make the company more efficient, but it could have resulted in a few people losing their jobs or, at the very least, being reassigned.

A Good Job?

As my son and I talked through the positives and negatives of being the next Houston Astros General Manager, many of the same type of questions came to mind.

Why would an established GM take a job where he’s not the final decision-maker (see Trevor Larnach-Bryan Abreu almost-trade)? Why would a young up-and-comer take a job that, at least from the outside, appears to be “no-win”? How much power do you really have? Who wants to work for a meddling owner, with a former team legend advising like it’s 1994? It could be a career-ender or, at the very least, a career stunter.

Challenge Accepted

I took the job and relished it. Sure, some of my new coworkers didn’t like me or appreciate why I was hired. Whispers in the elevator, quick glances when I entered the work area of those potentially impacted. Snide remarks when something I was working on went wrong.

You know the old saying: everyone’s for change as long as it doesn’t affect them.

I thrived.

On proving everyone wrong.

On communicating, being the guy who solved problems, heard their concerns, and addressed what I could.

I had a pretty cushy job prior to this, and while the pay at the new job was a slight bump, there was a bigger reason for me to take that leap.

The challenge.

My job at the time had become routine. There was very little challenge, very little reason to get up in the morning besides a paycheck, nothing driving me forward.

It’s not for everyone, and it goes without saying that the Astros will miss out on some very good candidates if they aren’t willing to change the decision-making process in baseball operations, and I’m of the opinion there should be major changes.

What if nothing changes?

We may not agree with how Jim Crane handles baseball ops, but he is the owner and can operate how he chooses and fans can decide how to react to that.

An Opportunity

But there’s also an opportunity for someone to make their mark, take a job someone else was unsuccessful at, and turn it around.

And here’s a key: Perhaps an opportunity that you might not get otherwise, or have to wait decades for, in an organization that runs its baseball ops in a “typical” fashion.

If you’re successful, the owner will see that, appreciate it, and likely adjust his trust accordingly.

If not, other organizations will see it (as happened to me), and you’ll have plenty of opportunities elsewhere.

I’m not going to pretend these candidates will fall out of the sky, and there will be missteps along the way.

But that’s part of change - finding the right person, explaining the operating rules, and letting them do their job.

Know What You’re Getting Into

I’d like to think Dana Brown knew how the Astros were run when he took the job, as the next GM will be.

That doesn’t guarantee success, but it is a first step.

Dana had the opportunity to be a general manager for a Major League Club - one of 30 in the world.

Did it work out? Nope. Was it a perfect setup? Nope.

But I’d be willing to bet he’d take it again, in the same circumstances.

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Say It Ain’t Joe

Marty Coleman — Tue, 06 Oct 2026 16:01:32 GMT

In a hundred ways, this isn’t Joe Espada’s fault, though he certainly made his fair share of lineup and in-game decisions that backfired or were perplexing.

Those come with the territory. Make thousands of decisions; some will be wrong. That’s life.

Shell Game

In fairness, Espada was handed a team that was the shell of its championship self, undermanned, banged-up, battered and fragile, yet with the same sky-high expectations from the owner, all while working for a rookie general manager, who traded a decent starting pitcher, of which you had few, for an injured outfielder who hit .172 with a 48 wRC+ and a -0.3 fWAR in his time with the Astros.

It wasn’t Joe who decided to trade Mauricio Dubon, field the worst offensive outfield in baseball, or sign 5 one million-dollar pitchers instead of one five-million-dollar pitcher who would move the needle.

Blame Game

He is also not blame-free. Look no further than accidentally removing Hunter Brown from a game against the A’s on August 22nd to willingly doing it against the same team on September 25th, two games the Astros lost.

Espada has done plenty good, too. The players love him, though that’s not always a good thing, and he seems like a genuinely good guy and great ambassador for the Astros.

Unfortunately, that’s not enough.

Clean Slate

More than any of that, a clean slate is needed, especially if a new General Manager is in the Astros future, which I assume is the case.

Though I wonder what kind of candidate would take this job with this farm system and the current decision making hierarchy in place.

Nonetheless, do it now; don’t wait and force the new GM to take a year or two to “evaluate” Espada.

We have enough evidence. 489 games worth.

It’s time to move on.

Hanging on to Espada would signal that the Astros haven’t acknowledged the failures over the last few years and still believe the way the organization has operated recently is the path forward.

It’s not.

This should be the first move towards showing the fans you want to win and the status quo is not acceptable.

You’ve said it, now show it.

Say it ain’t Joe.

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Swept Away

Marty Coleman — Thu, 01 Oct 2026 17:01:21 GMT

There’s not a lot to say about what we witnessed over the last two days, just an average team (on a good day) against a better team in a playoff scenario.

At the same time, fans booing, players complaining about the booing and following it up with another poor performance, and empty seats in a playoff game are all things we could talk about, but I’m not up for it right now.

But if that’s the last we see of the Astros for a while, that’s a tough way to go out.

The Future of Crawford Street Journal

I’m at a crossroads with this site and deciding how and if I’ll move forward.

Crawford Street Journal hasn’t grown the way I envisioned, but I enjoy the process of writing about and discussing the Astros, and I plan to continue doing that somewhere, somehow, here or somewhere else.

If you know someone looking for an Astros writer, let me know.

At the same time, I’ve made major automation strides and have a contingency plan in the works should there be a lockout next season, and I’m excited about the potential to cover the Astros and/or their MiLB affiliates in 2027.

I’m going to take some time and decide how to move forward.

If you have any ideas or an opinion on how to improve the site, let me know.

Thank you for reading what I’ve written. It means more than you know.

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Playoffs?!?!?! Don’t Talk to Me About Playoffs!

Marty Coleman — Tue, 29 Sep 2026 15:01:45 GMT

The Astros won, and the Rangers lost Sunday, handing the Astros the AL West, no tiebreaker needed.

Houston now takes on the Chicago White Sox beginning today, Tuesday at 4 p.m. CST.

It was not always pretty, and the Astros have holes the size of the State of Texas, but many like the matchup with the White Sox given Houston’s 5-2 head-to-head record against the Southsiders.

Final Standings

Two 100-win teams, both in the NL, and two hundred-loss teams, one in each league, including a franchise first for the Angels.

Final Astros Stats

These are no longer projections, but final numbers.

I have not rearranged them to active and non-active playoff wise because that hasn’t come out as of this time.

Just note, that some stats may be rounded (IP, for example).

Win Shares

Add all these together and you get a net of 81 - which is obviously the Astros win total this season - that’s the goal.

Further breaking it down the batters totaled 60.0 wins and the pitchers 21.0.

Yordan and Isaac, far and away the leaders with Peter Lambert leading the arms.

Splits

Didn’t have time to do all the work I wanted, but here are the batter splits vs. RHPs and LHPs.

Roster not finalized at press time.

Did not include Correa, but note that he has a .798 OPS in 118 PA against LHPs.

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AL West Update

Marty Coleman — Fri, 25 Sep 2026 15:04:27 GMT

I just thought the AL West was tight yesterday, when I had the Rangers two hundredths of a percentage point ahead of the Astros, then last night both teams won by two runs, which made it even closer.

More on that in a minute, but first let’s update a couple things quickly.

First, the batters. Quite the night from Lucas Spence.

Here are the pitchers, with Miguel Ullola picking up two wins in the last few days.

Wins are fleeting, just ask Peter Lambert, but Ullola has pitched well with the exception of his second opener appearance.

September wRC+

Spence aside, there are some real stragglers here as Pena, Smith and Walker continue to struggle.

Win Shares

Likely the last update until season end.

AL West Race

It’s easy to laugh at the AL West, with the winner potentially finishing under .500, but it has turned out to be fantastic drama with 3 games to go.

First, let’s take a look at what fangraphs.com says about a potential playoff run (through games of September 24):

Projected Remaining Record: 2-1 (Previous 2-2)

Projected Final Record: 81-81 (Previous 80-82)

Win Division: 70.7% (Previous 71.2%)

Wild Card: 0.0% (Previous 0.1%)

Make Playoffs: 70.7% (Previous 71.2%)

I project a 1-2 finish and an 80-82 record, with the team making the playoffs as the AL West Division winner.

They are listed second below because the Rangers project to go 80.42 wins and the Astros 80.41 wins. However, that rounds to 80 and if the season ended with both teams at 80, we know the Astros have the tiebreaker.

xWins and GB are rounded.

Both the Astros and Rangers won by 2 runs last night, but the Astros scored 7 to the Rangers’ 3 - that’s why they inched closer and now are .01 “game “ behind the Rangers.

This is fun (for me, at least) to look at, but as mentioned above, if the teams end up tied, the Astros advance to the playoffs.

The standings will sort themselves out over the final three games.

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The One That Got Away

Marty Coleman — Thu, 24 Sep 2026 20:01:08 GMT

I think that’s the 32nd time I’ve written that this season, but to lose a 4-0 lead and burn your bullpen in game 158 is painful.

We are 97.5% of the way through the regular season.

That means 97.5% of this is actual performance and 2.5% is projection.

The offense is up to a 101 wRC+ for September.

The pitching staff is rocking a 3.75 ERA in September, with the starters posting a 3.04 ERA and the bullpen a 4.50 ERA.

Win Shares

All players together. Trying out some new formats.

AL West Playoff Update (as of September 23)

First, let’s take a look at what fangraphs.com says about a potential playoff run (through games of September 23):

Projected Remaining Record: 2-2 (Previous 3-3)

Projected Final Record: 80-82 (Previous 80-82)

Win Division: 71.2% (Previous 43.5%)

Wild Card: 0.1% (Previous 1.5%)

Make Playoffs: 71.2% (Previous 45.0%)

I project a 2-2 finish and an 80-82 record, with the team making the playoffs as the AL West Division winner.

They are listed second below because the Rangers project to go 79.89 wins and the Astros 79.87 wins. However, that rounds to 80 and if the season ended with both teams at 80, we know the Astros have the tiebreaker.

xWins and GB are rounded.

Projected Standings

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Bully Ball

Marty Coleman — Tue, 22 Sep 2026 15:00:54 GMT

Let’s be honest: We knew the Astros weren’t World Series contenders despite being at the top of the meager AL West going into the Atlanta series.

Still, it’s baseball and anything can happen, right?

Well, what happened was the Astros got bullied by a better team.

Period.

We’ll see if the Alvarez-led team meeting leads to any results, but the fact that you have to call one at this point of the season, with this much on the line, speaks volumes.

Let’s start off with the basics: We are 96.3% of the way through the regular season.

That means 96.3% of this is actual performance and 3.7% is projection.

The offense was pitiful over the weekend and has now recorded a 95 wRC+ for the month (75 for the Braves series), wasting three good starts.

As mentioned above, three good, but inefficient, starts against Atlanta. The first two were Kikuchi starts, and the final was 5 shutout innings by Hunter Brown.

The bullpen is having a tough September with a 5.10 ERA. Their xERA is 3.92, suggesting some bad luck, and we saw a bit of that on Sunday as Bryan King suffered a chopper over Isaac’s head and a broken-bat single into right as the Braves took the lead and the inning spiraled out of control.

You can see that in the chart below, which shows King with a September ERA of 11.81 and an xERA of 3.39.

I’m not making excuses for King; he’s not been good. Just stating facts.

wRC+ for September

As mentioned, the team is rocking a 95 for the month, and there is plenty of blame to go around, but most noticeable are Cam (60) and Walker (17).

Win Shares

It’s always been Yordan.

AL West Playoff Update (as of September 21)

First, let’s take a look at what fangraphs.com says about a potential playoff run (through games of September 21):

Projected Remaining Record: 3-3 (Previous 5-4)

Projected Final Record: 80-82 (Previous 82-80)

Win Division: 43.5% (Previous 77.7%)

Wild Card: 1.5% (Previous 3.2%)

Make Playoffs: 45.0% (Previous 81.0%)

I project a 3-3 finish and an 80-82 record, and missing the playoffs for the second consecutive season.

xWins and GB are rounded.

Projected Standings

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Nine to Go

Marty Coleman — Fri, 18 Sep 2026 14:30:45 GMT

Just a quick update on batter and pitcher projections and the AL West race as I head to Houston later this morning to take in a couple of Astros - Braves matchups.

Let’s start off with the basics: We are 94.4% of the way through the regular season.

That means 94.4% of this is actual performance and 5.6% is projection.

Yordan now projects to 41 homers, and 5 Astros are over 20. Current team projection is 216 home runs.

Better pitching of late, but still tough to find many days in the rotation where you are “sure” you have a win.

AL West Playoff Update (as of September 17)

First, let’s take a look at what fangraphs.com says about a potential playoff run (through games of September 17):

Projected Remaining Record: 5-4 (Previous 6-6)

Projected Final Record: 82-80 (Previous 81-81)

Win Division: 77.7% (Previous 73.3%)

Wild Card: 3.2% (Previous 2.8%)

Make Playoffs: 81.0% (Previous 76.1%)

I project a 4-5 finish and an 81-81 record, but holding on to the AL West.

The White Sox/Guardian deal is an incredibly close one. Technically the White Sox are only 0.2 games ahead (82.7 to 82.5), so I chose to leave the GB at 0.

xWins and GB are rounded.

As mentioned, I’m traveling to Houston today for two games of the Braves series, so the next update will likely be Monday.

I’ve got some exciting news coming, that is if there is baseball next season.

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Wasted Days and Wasted Nights

Marty Coleman — Mon, 14 Sep 2026 18:00:55 GMT

Three days and three nights in Tampa, three games and three losses for the Astros.

Tampa is no doubt a good team. The kind of team you’ll eventually see in the playoffs, if you make it, but you have to come away with at least one win there.

Let’s start off with the basics: Batter and Pitcher projections 92.6% of the way through the regular season.

That means 92.6% of this is actual performance and 7.4% is projection.

Yordan is down to a projected 39 homers, 100 RBI and 1.012 OPS. Still lofty, but a decrease across the board.

Kind of crazy to project no pitcher with more than 8 wins, though wins is an almost useless stat these days.

September wRC+

The team has a 91 wRC+ for September and the big names have failed to produce so far - Yordan, Altuve, Walker and Pena.

Quality Starts

In the preseason I looked at the quality starts projected by two projection systems, STEAMER and THE BAT.

STEAMER projected 73 quality starts (not sure how they came up with that number) and THE BAT came up with 44.

Obviously THE BAT was closer, and as a matter of fact could theoretically be EXACTLY right.

The Astros simply aren’t getting enough quality starts.

Win Shares

Yordan leads the way obviously, put treading water lately with his “slump”, while Isaac making a push.

Lambert leads the arms, but Josh Hader with 6.1 wins tells you what kind of season he is having.

AL West Playoff Update (as of September 13)

First, let’s take a look at what fangraphs.com says about a potential playoff run (through games of September 13):

Projected Remaining Record: 6-6 (Previous 9-9)

Projected Final Record: 81-81 (Previous 82-80)

Win Division: 73.3% (Previous 76.2%)

Wild Card: 2.8% (Previous 2.4%)

Make Playoffs: 76.1% (Previous 88.1%)

I’m also projecting an 81-81 record and AL West crown.

If the Astros Go…

A little game I like to play.

Every Astros win adds immense pressure to Texas and Seattle, as illustrated by the graphic below.

A simple .500 record means the Rangers have to win 2 of every 3 and the Mariners 11 of 12.

Go 7-5, and the pressure is really on the other two.

I’m travelling to Houston this weekend for two games of the Braves series, so the next update will either be a brief one on Thursday/Friday featuring playoff odds or next Tuesday.

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Under Pressure

Marty Coleman — Tue, 08 Sep 2026 13:04:08 GMT

It was right there in front of the Astros on Saturday, a chance to put another nail in the coffins of their AL West rivals, but they couldn’t hold on, lost that game and then lost again on Sunday, losing the series to the Diamondbacks.

Let’s start off with the basics: Batter and Pitcher projections 89% of the way through the regular season.

That means 89% of this are actual performance and 11% projections.

The Astros have signed Jorge Barrosa and optioned Jake Meyers.

Yordan is back to 40 projected homers, but the team is now down to 207 projected homers.

The team’s home run pace is 210 - so, they are much closer together than they have been recently.

September wRC+

The team has a 76 wRC+ for the 6 September games.

It’s crunch time.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Quality Starts

Game Scores

Starting Pitcher Grades

AL West Playoff Update (as of September 7)

First, let’s take a look at what fangraphs.com says about a potential playoff run (through games of September 6):

Projected Remaining Record: 9-9 (Previous 14-14)

Projected Final Record: 82-80 (Previous 81-81)

Win Division: 76.2% (Previous 43.7%)

Wild Card: 2.4% (Previous 8.2%)

Make Playoffs: 88.1% (Previous 51.9%)

I’m also projecting an 82-80 record and AL West crown.

If the Astros Go…

A little game I like to play.

Every Astros win adds immense pressure to Texas and Seattle, as illustrated by the graphic below.

A simple .500 record means the Rangers have to win 2 of every 3 and the Mariners 5 of every 6.

Go 10-8 and the heat is really on those teams.

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Winding Down

Marty Coleman — Fri, 04 Sep 2026 17:04:51 GMT

After taking 4 of 6 in Gotham City last week, Houston took 3 of 4 against the first place White Sox and lead the Rangers by 2 games and the Mariners by 6, with 21 games to play.

First, let’s take a look at what fangraphs.com says about a potential playoff run (through games of September 3):

Projected Remaining Record: 11-10 (Previous 13-12)

Projected Final Record: 83-79 (Previous 82-80)

Win Division: 72.9% (Previous 64.6%)

Wild Card: 4.9% (Previous 3.2%)

Make Playoffs: 77.9% (Previous 67.9%)

Expected Wins (as of September 3)

First, the big picture.

This chart tells you about the entire season, but it doesn’t tell you a whole lot about recency, because it’s 141 data points all jammed together.

So, I created these two that start in August.

These two contain the same information, in a different format.

The AL West Race

So far, we’ve been looking at the Astros in a vacuum, without regard to any other team, but that’s not how this works.

Here is my traditional look at the AL West. What a division.

So, I’m projecting a 10-11 finish for Houston, not the 11-10 that Fangraphs projects.

Here is what the AL West looks like under my current projections:

A note - the win totals and GB are rounded.

Here’s a graphic I put together to tell you why the Astros playoff projection % is so high and just what teams have to accomplish to overcome Houston.

Remember the Mariners have an “easy” schedule ahead as do the Rangers.

What this really shows you is if the Astros play competent ball over the next 21 games, it will be difficult to overcome.

If the Astros play really well, say 14-7, the Rangers would have to win 17 of 21 and the Mariners 20 of 21.

Because of the tiebreakers the Rangers have to make up 3 games and the Mariners 6.

The Astros have the tiebreaker over the Rangers, the Rangers have the tiebreaker over the Mariners and the Mariners have the tiebreaker over the Astros.

Batter and Pitcher Projections

I made an adjustment on Blubaugh and the numbers below seem more in line with what his final numbers should look like.

August wRC+ Final Numbers

Another poor month for Christian Walker.

I’m traveling this week, so updates will be sporadic and likely shorter.

Thank you for your understanding and thanks for reading!

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6 Days in New York

Marty Coleman — Mon, 31 Aug 2026 18:30:52 GMT

What a difference 6 days in New York has made for the Astros hopes in the AL West.

Don’t get it twisted, Houston has a long way to go over the next 25 games and if last year taught us anything, it’s that having a two game lead in late August doesn’t assure you of a postseason.

But - it’s better than the alternative.

First, let’s take a look at what fangraphs.com says about a potential playoff run (through games of August 30):

Projected Remaining Record: 13-12 (Previous 14-14)

Projected Final Record: 82-80 (Previous 81-81)

Win Division: 64.6% (Previous 43.7%)

Wild Card: 3.2% (Previous 8.2%)

Make Playoffs: 67.9% (Previous 51.9%)

Expected Wins (as of August 30)

First, the big picture.

This chart tells you about the entire season, but it doesn’t tell you a whole lot about recency, because it’s 137 data points all jammed together.

So, I created these two that start in August.

These two contain the same information, in a different format.

The AL West Race

So far, we’ve been looking at the Astros in a vacuum, without regard to any other team, but that’s not how this works.

Here is my traditional look at the AL West. What a division.

So, I’m projecting a 12-13 finish for Houston, not the 13-12 that Fangraphs projects.

Here is what the AL West looks like under my current projections:

A note - the win totals and GB are rounded.

Here’s a graphic I put together to tell you why the Astros playoff projection % is so high and just what teams have to accomplish to overcome Houston.

Remember the Mariners have an “easy” schedule ahead as do the Rangers.

What this really shows you is if the Astros play competent ball over the next 25 games, it will be difficult to overcome.

Because of the tiebreakers the Rangers have to make up 3 games and the Mariners 5.

The Astros have the tiebreaker over the Rangers, the Rangers have the tiebreaker over the Mariners and the Mariners have the tiebreaker over the Astros.

Batter and Pitcher Projections

Win Shares

Yordan is still way ahead, but Isaac becomes the second batter in double figures.

A quality start gives Brown a nice bump past Enyel.

I’ll be traveling a good bit this week, hitting Round Rock Tuesday, San Antonio Friday, so updates will be sporadic and likely shorter.

Thank you for your understanding and thanks for reading!

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Flushing the Home Stand in a New York Minute

Marty Coleman — Fri, 28 Aug 2026 18:01:24 GMT

As I mentioned last week I’ve got a busy couple of weeks ahead, so the updates will be briefer, but likely more often.

The working plan is instead of one large update on off days, the updates will be broken down over multiple posts as time allows.

Thanks for your indulgence.

Today, we focus on player projections, August wRC+, record by starting pitcher and a look at the AL West race.

First up, the batters.

With only one homer in the month as play finished on the 27th, Yordan is down to 39 projected homers.

I always thought he was somewhat of a homer regression candidate, but I did not expect just one over a month.

Expect him to pick it up in the coming days.

Despite Yordan’s homer drought, I’m projecting 210 homers for the Astros, who are on pace for 216, up from 213 in our last post.

The starting pitching has been horrific, but one bright spot has been Hayden Wesneski. As we’ll see shortly, the Astros are 5-1 in his starts.

Another name that has gone under the radar is A.J. Blubaugh.

Blubaugh’s role means he won’t earn much fWAR (0.5), but he is on pace to cover 99 innings in the bullpen. He needs an award just for that.

I have him at a much higher total that he’s not likely to reach, as it would require 32 innings over the next 28 games.

Yeoman's work.

August wRC+ Check-In

The team has a 95 wRC+ so far in August.

Despite the dearth of homers this month, Yordan is still slashing .296/.426/457 for August.

Record by Starting Pitcher

As mentioned earlier, the team is 5-1 when Wesneski starts.

There has been some expected regression with Lambert.

AL West Playoff Update

First, let’s take a look at what fangraphs.com says about a potential playoff run (through games of August 27):

Projected Remaining Record: 14-14 (Previous 16-15)

Projected Final Record: 81-81 (Previous 81-81)

Win Division: 43.7% (Previous 37.5%)

Wild Card: 8.2% (Previous 8.7%)

Make Playoffs: 51.9% (Previous 46.2%)

I’m projecting 13-15, and 80-82 record and first place in the AL West.

Next update to be determined.

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Summertime Sadness

Marty Coleman — Tue, 25 Aug 2026 14:03:39 GMT

If you missed it, yesterday we updated the playoff odds, expected wins and AL West projections.

Today, we focus on player projections, quality starts, record by starting pitcher, August wRC+ (and monthly) and Win Shares.

First up, the batters.

Yordan projecting to 40 home runs, 101 RBI, and a 1.035 OPS and has upped the projected plate appearances to 640.

I was incorrect last week when I wrote about my projected home run total. Not sure where the mix up was, but the large discrepancy caused me to go back and rework my projections and it now sits at 207.

The team is “on pace” for 213 (down from 218 last week) home runs, so I still see some more downside coming.

The pitching has been horrific and it has spread to the bullpen as of late.

August wRC+ Check-In

The team has a 91 wRC+ so far in August and struggled to score in the recent homestand.

The charts below are interesting perhaps only to me. What they show is some players have been very consistent - Yordan and Paredes for example, while others are wildly inconsistent - Pena, Cam and Altuve.

Walker seems to be in his own category - on fire for March and April, well below average since. Walker raked for a 154 wRC+ in March in April, but since then? 104 in May, 88 in June, 98, in July and 80 so far in August.

Win Shares

Batters 49.1 Win Shares

Pitchers 15.9 Win Shares

Record by Starting Pitcher

Hunter Brown wasn’t terrible, but who saw a 6-8 record in his starts? If that is turned around to say 8-6, the Astros are in a much better spot.

He just hasn’t been the dominating pitcher he was and perhaps is still working back from his injury (speculating).

Quality Starts

Game Scores and Starter Grades

MLB xWins through August 23

Next update to be determined. I will be traveling most of next week.

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AL West Standings Update (131 Games)

Marty Coleman — Mon, 24 Aug 2026 14:02:38 GMT

What a disastrous week, there’s no way around that. A 9 game homestand against teams you should go 6-3 or better against, ends up 3-6. Yikes.

Consequently, there’s been a nosedive in the Astros odds of winning the West and/or making the playoffs.

First, let’s take a look at what fangraphs.com says about a potential playoff run (through games of August 23):

Projected Remaining Record: 16-15 (Previous 19-18)

Projected Final Record: 81-81 (Previous 82-80)

Win Division: 37.5% (Previous 52.2%)

Wild Card: 8.7% (Previous 10.2%)

Make Playoffs: 46.2% (Previous 62.2%)

Expected Wins (as of August 23)

First, the big picture.

This chart tells you about the entire season, but it doesn’t tell you a whole lot about recency, because it’s 131 data points all jammed together.

So, I created these two that start after the All-Star Break.

These two contain the same information, in a different format.

The important thing is, you can clearly see the Astros rise from a projected 76 wins to the current 80.

The AL West Race

So far, we’ve been looking at the Astros in a vacuum, without regard to any other team, but that’s not how this works.

Here is my traditional look at the AL West. What a division.

So, I’m projecting a 15-16 finish for Houston, not the 16-15 that Fangraphs projects.

I use a formula I created that blends the Pythagorean formula with actual wins and losses over the course of the season, weighting wins and losses more heavily as the season progresses.

When I do that to this point in the season, I get these results:

How to read these: My formula says the Astros “should be” 64-67 - they have overperformed by a game, as have the Rangers and Mariners.

The Plus/Minus column tells you these standings have 1 less win than the actual standings.

What this graphic also shows you is how close my formula correlates to the actual standings, with no team more than a game off the actual standings 125ish games into the season.

Using the PCT column above we can extrapolate the entire season to a final of:

A note - the win totals are rounded. A .491 winning percentage = 79.542 wins. Obviously, the Astros won’t have 79.542 wins, so we round to the closest whole number, 80 in this case.

The Astros and Rangers have the same records, but the Astros run differential is +2 over the Rangers and that makes the difference here.

Basically, it’s a dead heat with a month to go.

MLB Expected Wins (as of August 23)

Brewers and Dodgers leading the league.

Next Week’s Schedule

I hope to have a typical update tomorrow, but we’ll see.

I’ll be traveling a good bit next week, hitting Round Rock Tuesday, San Antonio Friday, and traveling on Saturday, so updates will be sporadic and likely shorter.

Thank you for your understanding!

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You Keep Me Hangin' On

Marty Coleman — Tue, 18 Aug 2026 14:03:54 GMT

If you missed it, yesterday we updated the playoff odds, expected wins and AL West projections.

Today, we focus on player projections, quality starts, record by starting pitcher, and August wRC+.

We didn’t update win shares, because there has only been one win since our last update. Look for that next Monday.

First up, the batters.

Yordan projecting to 40 home runs, 101 RBI, and a 1.035 OPS and has upped the projected plate appearances to 632.

Of note - the team homer projection from me is down to 188, after being around 200 for a good chunk of the season. The team is “on pace” for 218 home runs.

For my current projection to come true the Astros would have to hit just 20 home runs in their last 37 games - unlikely.

For the 218 to come true the Astros would need to hit 50 home runs in their last 37 games - very possible - this is their pace through the first 125 games.

As the games tick away these two numbers will diverge and I’m of the opinion it’ll be closer to 218 than 188.

Blanco optioned after a particularly bad bullpen outing and Ullola recalled, but who knows for how long.

Instability in your rotation is not something you want down the stretch run, but here we are, with Ethan Pecko apparently and option.

August wRC+ Check-In

The team has a 100 wRC+ so far in August.

A slight pullback from Yordan, but, I mean, he’s still rocking a 137 for the first half of August.

I found some interesting trends when I look at this stat month by month, that I plan to publish soon.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Peter Lambert, Ace of Staff.

Quality Starts

Game Scores and Starter Grades

MLB xWins through August 16

Next updates will probably be next Monday and Tuesday.

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AL West Standings Update (125 Games)

Marty Coleman — Mon, 17 Aug 2026 14:00:46 GMT

With 37 games left in the Astros’ regular season, here’s information on the AL West, the standings, probabilities, and projections, separate from the stats projections.

First, let’s take a look at what fangraphs.com says about a potential playoff run (through games of August 16):

Projected Remaining Record: 19-18 (Previous 20-20)

Projected Final Record: 82-80 (Previous 82-80)

Win Division: 52.2% (Previous 52.4%)

Wild Card: 10.2% (Previous 10.6%)

Make Playoffs: 62.2% (Previous 63.0%)

To summarize: Odds of winning division or earning wild card spot down slightly after losing two of three to the Mariners.

Still trending toward division champs OR non-playoff team.

Expected Wins (as of August 16)

First, the big picture.

This chart tells you about the entire season, but it doesn’t tell you a whole lot about recency, because it’s 125 data points all jammed together.

So, I created these two that start after the All-Star Break.

These two contain the same information, in a different format.

The important thing is, you can clearly see the Astros rise from a projected 76 wins to the current 81.

The AL West Race

So far, we’ve been looking at the Astros in a vacuum, without regard to any other team, but that’s not how this works.

Here is my traditional look at the AL West.

So, I’m projecting a 18-19 finish for Houston, not the 19-18 that Fangraphs projects.

I use a formula I created that blends the Pythagorean formula with actual wins and losses over the course of the season, weighting wins and losses more heavily as the season progresses.

When I do that to this point in the season, I get these results:

How to read these: My formula says the Astros “should be” 62-63 - they have overperformed by a game. The Plus/Minus column tells you these standings have 1 less win than the actual standings.

What this graphic also shows you is how close my formula correlates to the actual standings, with no team more than a game off the actual standings 125ish games into the season.

Using the PCT column above we can extrapolate the entire season to a final of:

A note - the win totals are rounded. A .498 winning percentage = 80.676 wins. Obviously, the Astros won’t have 80.676 wins, so we round to the closest whole number, 81 in this case.

MLB Expected Wins (as of August 16)

Brewers back to 100 xWins.

I plan on being back tomorrow with the regular updates.

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Homeward Bound

Marty Coleman — Fri, 14 Aug 2026 14:30:55 GMT

If you missed it, yesterday we updated the playoff odds, expected wins and AL West projections.

Today, we focus on player projections, win shares and quality starts.

First up, the batters.

Amazing that Yordan is struggling a bit but still projects for 40 home runs, 101 RBI, and a 1.037 OPS.

Perhaps his biggest asset all season is his availability.

Never in my wildest dreams did I think he would see the plate 626 times, as currently projected.

After a shaky beginning, another solid 3 shutout innings out of the bullpen on Wednesday for Tatsuya Imai.

Perhaps that’s his role this season, as he is certainly adding value in the role (as we’ll see in Win Shares) over 2 appearances.

A.J. Blubaugh is not talked about enough.

The demise of Brian King (in a relief role) warrants study.

King was always a regression candidate, but he can’t go an outing without giving up a bomb, run, or a couple of walks.

August wRC+ Check-In

The team has a 96 wRC+ so far in August.

I’ve been fairly critical of Cam’s offense this season, if not on these pages then in real-life discussions.

It’s only Mid-August, but he’s been really good recently.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Quality Starts

Game Scores and Starter Grades

Win Shares

Add all these together, and the net should be around 62 (due to rounding).

It’s split like this: Batters 48.5 wins, pitchers 13.5 wins.

Yikes.

MLB xWins through August 12

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