Editor’s Note: Due to my travel schedule over the next week, updates may be sporadic and may fall outside the typical schedule.

NEXT UPDATE: June 19

In a disappointing turn of events in a disappointing season, the Astros lost two of three in Anaheim, dropping them to 31-39.

Scoring 8 runs over 3 games is not a recipe for success, especially when you gave up 17.

Consequently, the expected wins drops to 72.

Worst in MLB

My son and I were talking about the walks and how the ABS system has hurt some pitching staff more than others. While I’m hesitant to draw sweeping conclusions from a single metric, the chart below shows that the Astros’ BB/9 has increased the most of any MLB team from 2025 to 2026.

Data is through games of June 10.

Updated Projections

The team is 4-5 in June with a 4.44 ERA and 4.65 FIP, including 5.91 ERA for the starters and 2.55 for the bullpen.

Meanwhile, the bats slashed .233/.314/.397, with 9 home runs and scoring 44 runs (4.9per game).

Walker has cooled and Altuve coming off the IL has yet to get going.

As noted above, the bullpen has been better as a whole.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Arrighetti continues to lead the way, even when not at his best.

Quality Starts

No quality starts since the last update and with 19 quality starts after 70 games, Houston is on pace for 44 quality starts on the season, after averaging 71 over the last three seasons.

That is not a recipe for making the postseason.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Game Scores

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in an easier-to-understand format.

So, I’ve converted the scores into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get a net of 31, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

It’s Yordan’s world, and it’s not close.

Hunter Brown has made two starts and he is fourth on this list after 67 games. Incredible.

MLB Expected Wins

The data below is through June 10.

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Editor’s Note: Due to my travel schedule over the next week, updates may be sporadic and may fall outside the typical schedule.

The Astros won the first two games against the A’s and my son and I were at both games.

Over the three games, Houston outscored the A’s 18-8, after a 13-run explosion on Saturday, and currently project to 74 wins.

Updated Projections

The team is 3-3 in June with a 4.83 ERA and 4.83 FIP, including 6.14 ERA for the starters and 3.28 for the bullpen.

Meanwhile, the bats slashed .272/.344/.455, with 7 home runs and scoring 36 runs (6.0 per game).

The bullpen has improved a lot, at least ERA-wise, with De Los Santos (3 appearances), Hader (2), Okert (3) and King (2), all rocking 0.00 ERAs for June in a combined 10 appearances.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Burrows continues to be a drag.

Quality Starts

No quality starts since the last update and with 17 quality starts after 67 games, Houston is on pace for 41 quality starts on the season, after averaging 71 over the last three seasons.

That is not a recipe for making the post season.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Game Scores

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in an easier-to-understand format.

So, I’ve converted the scores into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get a net of 30, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

It’s Yordan’s world, and it’s not close.

If you’re calculating at home, Yordan has been worth 31.3% of the Astros wins in 2026.

Hunter Brown has made two starts and he is fourth on this list after 67 games. Incredible.

MLB Expected Wins

The data below is through June 7.

Thanks for reading!

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Editor’s Note: Due to my travel schedule over the next three weeks, updates may be sporadic and may fall outside the typical schedule. I will be at the Astros games this coming Friday and Saturday against the A’s. The next update will be next week sometime.

As June dawns, the Astros have played 61 games, compiling a record of 27-34, and are in fourth place in the AL West, 4.5 games behind the Mariners.

Snatching a loss from the jaws of victory on Friday, in essence, cost the Astros the series and sapped the momentum Houston had built over the previous 10 or so days.

Despite that, the Astros have improved to an expected 73 wins since our last chat and appear to be getting healthier.

Updated Projections

Houston finished May with a 15-14 record and a 3.66 ERA, including an ERA of 3.93 for the starters and 3.27 for the bullpen.

Meanwhile, the bats slashed .219/.287/.376, smashing 39 home runs and scoring 101 runs (3.48 per game).

Record by Starting Pitcher

Spencer Arrighetti and it’s not close.

Quality Starts

The continued uptick in quality starts is encouraging, but still a long way to go. Getting Brown back would obviously help.

With 17 quality starts after 61 games, Houston is on pace for 45 quality starts on the season, after averaging 71 over the last three seasons.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Game Scores

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.

So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get a net of 27, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Yordan continues to lap the field, but Walker has been impressive, too.

I also have to give Cam Smith credit here, after pointing out how bad he was offensively over the first third of the season.

Abreu has been an abomination, and should not be in competitive games as he was Friday night. I would rather see Alimber Santa or anyone else in there.

Something Weird

This may surprise you, but Cam Smith has the fastest bat speed on the Astros at 77.3, while Zach Cole is second at 76.3, and Yordan Alvarez is coming in third (76.0).

That’s weird enough, but Cam’s average exit velo is “only” 88.4 MPH, while Cole’s is 92.5 and Yordan’s is 94.7.

That means the ratio for Cam is 1.14 (88.4/77.3), while Cole’s is 1.21 and Yordan’s is 1.24.

That’s 6% lower than Cole and 8% lower than Alvarez.

The league average is 1.24, and I would think the higher, the better.

Not even sure if that’s a thing, but it’s curious that the guy with the hardest swing has the 8th-highest exit velocity on the team, below guys like Loperfido, Shewmake and Matthews.

For whatever it’s worth, I looked back at 2025, and Cam was fifth in bat speed and, ummm, 17th in exit velocity on the team and his ratio was 1.17.

What does it mean? I don’t know. Maybe nothing. Maybe he’s due for positive regression, but I’ll keep an eye on it periodically to see if it remains an outlier.

Corpus

Watched Corpus play in San Antonio Friday night and it was horrendous. The pitching staff walked 12 (including at least two with the bases loaded), hit 2 and threw a wild pitch, while the offense had 2 hits.

They were shut out on five hits Saturday, before finally scoring 6 in a Sunday win.

I’m no scout, and it was 1 game in a long season, but it was not encouraging.

I understand their best offensive prospects are in Asheville, but that’s my point - they are a long way from MLB.

MLB Expected Wins

The data below is through May 31.

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Editor’s Note: Due to my travel schedule over the next three weeks, updates may be sporadic and may fall outside the typical schedule.

This will be brief. I’m headed out the door to San Antonio to watch the Hooks, and hopefully see some Astros prospects.

We are now 35.8% of the way through the season, the Astros stand in third place, percentage points ahead of Texas, and only 2.5 games back of the Mariners in the AL West

The 3-1 series win and resulting run differential improved the Astros expected wins by 2 games.

Updated Projections

In the 4 games in Arlington, the team slashed .235/.316/.485, but hit 10 HRs and recorded a 124 wRC+. Meanwhile, the arms compiled a 3.60 ERA, including 4.32 for the starters (heavily negatively influenced by Alexander’s start) and 1.80 for the bullpen.

Yordan recorded at 368 wRC+ in Arlington, with Pena coming in at 228 and Smith at 135.

Record by Starting Pitcher

7-1 when Arrighetti starts.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Quality Starts

The Astros are 14-2 when they get a quality start and 12-30 when they don’t.

Hopefully, I can find time for a longer post on Monday.

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Editor’s Note: Due to my travel schedule over the next three weeks, updates may be sporadic and may fall outside the typical schedule.

Exactly one-third of the way through the season, the Astros stand in fourth place, yet only 4.5 games back of the Athletics in the AL West and are coming off a three-game sweep in Chicago of the Cubs.

Despite outscoring Chicago 15-7 my formula projects the team to 68 wins, one less than their pace of 69.

The reason for this is their run differential (233-281).

Updated Projections

The Astros have gone 8-8 over the last 16 games, with a 77 wRC+ in that span, which was 25th in the league, while scoring just 48 runs for an average of 3.0 runs per game, while slashing .208/.276/.348.

The pitching staff was improved during the same timeframe: 3.64 ERA, including 3.76 for the starters and 3.44 for the bullpen.

Record by Starting Pitcher

6-1 when Arrighetti starts.

Quality Starts

A slight tick up in quality starts, but still a long way to go. Getting Brown back would obviously help.

With 13 quality starts after 54 games, Houston is on pace for 39 quality starts on the season, after averaging 71 over the last three seasons.

Not enough given their offensive struggles.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Game Scores

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.

So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get a net of 23, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Yordan continues to pace the field, with Walker making a recent move.

MLB Expected Wins

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51 games in the bats have gone silent (or are injured) and the arms a tad better, but still putrid.

Welcome to the 2026 Houston Astros.

But over the long term, run prevention is an important thing and turning a potential 2-0 loss into an 8-0 loss tells you something about your club and it’s not good.

Updated Projections

The Astros have gone 5-8 over the last 13 games, rolling along with a 67 wRC+ in that span, which was 28th in the league, while scoring just 33 runs for an average of 2.5 runs per game, while slashing .200/.267/.326.

The pitching staff was improved during the same timeframe: 3.95 ERA, including 4.21 for the starters and 3.48 for the bullpen.

Record by Starting Pitcher

The Astros drop to 2-8 in Mike Burrows starts.

Quality Starts

Two quality starts last week is a slight improvement, but the Astros are on pace for 36 quality starts, just over half of the number they had last season.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Game Scores

Great job by Alexander in his first of the season.

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.

So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get a net of 19, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Yordan continues to pace the field, with Walker also playing well.

Both Correa and Altuve on the IL is depressing.

Astros Expected Wins

1-2 against the Twins, but outscored 11-6.

AL West Expected Wins

Coming dangerously close to projecting 100 losses.

MLB Expected Wins

This data does NOT include the 7 Thursday games.

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But over the long term, run prevention is an important thing and turning a potential 2-0 loss into an 8-0 loss tells you something about your club and it’s not good.

Updated Projections

We are now 29.6% of the way through the season, and the team has a 109 wRC+ (5th) and 5.43 ERA (30th).

The wRC+ has lagged since we last spoke (71, 27th in the league), while the ERA has improved slightly.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Arrighetti continues to be the leader and Burrows continues to struggle.

Quality Starts

Two quality starts last week is a slight improvement, but the Astros are on pace for 36 quality starts, just over half of the number they had last season.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Game Scores

Arrighetti overtakes Lambert.

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.

So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get a net of 19, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Yordan continues to pace the field, with Walker also playing well.

Both Correa and Altuve on the IL is depressing.

Astros Expected Wins

A 3-4 week for Houston, but outscored 33-16. Yikes.

AL West Expected Wins

Despite losing an expected win since this time last week, they are now projected for fourth, because the Angels have been worse.

MLB Expected Wins

Not sure if there’ll be another post this week or not, but if not, next Monday for sure.

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Ahead are the Mariners who have only 19 wins, with four of those coming at the Astros expense.

Yikes.

The Astros have a 16-25 record and are tied with the Angels for fourth/fifth place in the AL West, 5.5 games behind the Athletics.

Updated Projections

We are now 25.3% of the way through the season, and the team has a 113 wRC+ (5th) and 5.57 ERA (30th).

Record by Starting Pitcher

Arrighetti leading the way and it’s not close.

Quality Starts

Fantastic start by Burrows. Let’s hope that’s repeatable.

As I mentioned last time, teams win about 70% of the time they get a quality start across the league.

It’s not rocket science, especially when a team can score as this one does.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Game Scores

Lambert leads the active pitchers, with Arrighetti not to far behind.

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.

So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get a net of 16, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Yordan adds to his lead while Walker takes a step back.

That Correa injury is depressing.

Astros Expected Wins

1-2, but outscored the Reds 11-8.

AL West Expected Wins

The good news is the AL West is so mediocre that they are not out of it.

MLB Expected Wins

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The Astros have a 15-23 record and are tied with the Angels for fourth/fifth place in the AL West, 4.0 games behind the Athletics.

Updated Projections

We are now 23.5% of the way through the season, and the team has a 115 wRC+ (5th) and 5.82 ERA (30th).

Record by Starting Pitcher

Arrighetti leading the way and it’s not close.

Quality Starts

Fantastic outing by Lambert, outdueling Ohtani, but the team is running at about half of last season’s quality start %.

As I mentioned last time, teams win about 70% of the time they get a quality start across the league.

It’s not rocket science, especially when a team can score as this one does.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Game Scores

Lambert nudges out Arrighetti for active leader role.

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.

So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get a net of 15, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Yordan continues to lead, but Christian Walker gaining.

That Correa injury is depressing.

Lambert takes the pitcher lead.

Astros Expected Wins

1-2 and outscored Boston 21-7 by the Dodgers and 28-17 in the last 6 games, that’s why they’ve lost 4 expected wins in the last 6 games, despite going 3-3.

AL West Expected Wins

The good news is the AL West is so mediocre that they are not out of it.

MLB Expected Wins

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They all count the same at the end of the season.

The Astros have a 14-21 record, are out of the AL West cellar, and trail the A’s by 4.5 games.

Updated Projections

We are now 21.6% of the way through the season and the team has a 119 wRC+ (4th) and 5.75 ERA (30th).

Record by Starting Pitcher

Another good, if inefficient, start by Arrighetti.

Quality Starts

For the first time, the Astros lost a start when they got a quality start.

As I mentioned last time, teams win about 70% of the time they get a quality start across the league.

It’s not rocket science, especially when a team can score as this one does.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Game Scores

Arrighetti leads the active starters, but Lambert has been solid.

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.

So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get a net of 14, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Yordan continues to lead, but he took a step back in Boston with Christian Walker gaining 0.8 wins over that series.

The catchers are interesting to compare.

The pitchers are finally positive as a group (0.2 fWAR = 0.1 win shares).

Astros Expected Wins

2-1 and outscored Boston 10-7.

AL West Expected Wins

While the Astros are officially out of the cellar, my projections still show them tied for last.

The good news is the AL West is so mediocre that they are not out of it.

MLB Expected Wins

Thanks for reading!

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Winning 1 of 3 isn’t going to cut it.

The Astros 12-20 record leaves them tied for last in the AL West, 5.5 games behind the Athletics.

But it’s a new month and a new series, which brings new opportunities and maybe some new hope.

Updated Projections

We are now 19.8% of the way through the season and Yordan and Christian Walker continue to rake.

More on Yordan shortly.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Decent starting pitching in both games of the doubleheader for Lambert and McCullers, Jr.

Quality Starts

The trend continues, but is unlikely to persist all season. My research has shown that about 70% of the time, if a team gets a quality start, that team will win the game.

It’s not rocket science, especially when a team can score like this one does.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Game Scores

Arrighetti leads the active starters.

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.

So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get a net of 12, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Yordan continues to pace the field, with Christian Walker gaining and Correa making a push.

Batters have combined for 6.3 fWAR, while the putrid pitching staff is at -0.1.

K-BB% Percentiles

I’ve heard a lot about this metric, particularly that it is a better predictor of success than ERA.

These are the Astros starters and their percentile rankings in this metric.

It’s still early, but here is the general scale:

Elite: 15-20%

Solid/Above Average: 12-15%

Average: 11-13%

Poor: Below 10%

As of this writing, the league average is 13.1% (for starters).

Then and Now

A new periodic segment comparing preseason projections to current projections to see how we are doing.

I did this with Christian Walker last time, and I enjoyed seeing how the actual results affected my projections.

Here’s Yordan, and it looks like I am going to miss this one by a mile, and I am thrilled about it.

My preseason projections are based on history, and unfortunately, Yordan’s recent history was an injury that caused him to miss the majority of 2025.

My model weights the most recent seasons more heavily and this resulted in a projection of only 91 games for Yordan.

That said, no one could have predicted the start Alvarez is off to, and the updated projections reflect his sizzling start and the reality that it’s unlikely to last for the entire 162-game schedule.

In just 32 games, Alvarez has gained: 19 points of average, 22 points on OBP, and 85 points on slug, not to mention 66 PA, 53 at-bats, 8 HR, and 15 RBI.

Astros Expected Wins

1-2 and outscored 20-17 since we last spoke.

AL West Expected Wins

They are still projected to end last in the AL West.

MLB Expected Wins

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In theory, this should equate to a few wins, as both of those teams are under .500, but with the way Houston’s pitching has performed, I take nothing for granted.

The Astros 11-18 record leaves them dead last in the AL West, 4.5 games behind the, ahem, Athletics.

Updated Projections

We are now 17.9% of the way through the season.

One of my pet peeves is what I like to call “wasted roster spots,” which are essentially guys taking up a roster spot but simply aren’t playable.

The Astros, unfortunately, have a few of those, and the team is so injured that at least one, and sometimes two, of them have to play semi-regularly.

It’s tough to win when, on any given day, perhaps 22.2% of your lineup isn’t considered replacement-level Major League talent.

With no one at Sugar Land who is capable of helping, Joe Espada has to roll with what he has, and that’s not much.

For this offense to have the 4th-highest wRC+ and wOBA in the league, given the shape of the outfield, is remarkable.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Spencer Arrighetti to the rescue.

Kei-Wei Teng will add his name to the list later this evening.

Quality Starts

A nice start by Arrighetti to close out the Yankee series leaves the team 5-0 when they get a quality start and 6-18 when they don’t.

It’s not rocket science, especially when a team can score like this one does.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Game Scores

Arrighetti recorded a 72 on Sunday.

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.

So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

29 Starts: 3 A+, 3 A, 1 B, 3 C, 3 D, and 16 F.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get a net of 11, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Yordan continues to pace the field, with Christian Walker gaining and Correa making a push.

Batters have combined for 5.9 fWAR, while the putrid pitching staff is at -0.4.

If you calculate that out, it would mean the batters are responsible for 11.8 wins and the pitchers for -0.8 wins.

Incredible.

K-BB% Percentiles

I’ve heard a lot about this metric, particularly that it is a better predictor of success than ERA.

These are the Astros starters and their percentile rankings in this metric.

It’s still early, but here is the general scale:

Elite: 15-20%

Solid/Above Average: 12-15%

Average: 11-13%

Poor: Below 10%

As of this writing, the league average is 11.5%.

Then and Now

A new periodic segment comparing preseason projections to current projections to see how we are doing.

You may recall I was bullish on Christian Walker in the preseason, projecting improvement over his 2025 numbers.

I didn’t expect what Walker has done so far in 2026 (1.1 fWAR, 157 wRC+), and he won’t continue this pace for a full season.

Walker’s fast start has added 2 home runs and 7 RBI to my current projections.

Assuming Walker ends up with the updated projection numbers, that would equate to a ~120 wRC+ and ~2.1 fWAR.

While he’s not the defender he once was, I continue to believe his defense at first (0 OAA, 61st percentile) is underrated.

Astros Expected Wins

1-2 and outscored 24-14 since we last spoke.

AL West Expected Wins

They are still last in the AL West.

MLB Expected Wins

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I mentioned to the kid a few days ago that the Yankees don’t really represent the Evil Empire anymore; the Dodgers have taken that title these days.

New York leads the AL East by two games at 15-9 on the season.

Updated Projections

We are now 16.0% of the way through a season that feels like it’s moving fast. The two off days within 5 calendar days should hopefully slow things down enough to catch our breath and perhaps earn a few more wins.

The roster churn continues as players keep getting hurt. Last I saw, Houston led the league with 16 players on the IL.

While JP France is back with Sugar Land, Christian Roa has been claimed by the Twins and apparently will not return.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Peter Lambert has been added to the growing list.

Quality Starts

A nice start by Lambert to close out the Cleveland series leaves the Astros 4-0 when they get a quality start and 6-16 when they don’t.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Game Scores

Lambert recorded a 70 on Wednesday

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.

So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

20 Starts: 2 A+, 3 A, 1 B, 3 C, 2 D and 15 F.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get a net of 10, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Yordan continues to pace the field, with Altuve going 0-for-Cleveland and making an error.

Batters have combined for 6.1 fWAR, while the putrid pitching staff is at 0.1 (at least it’s positive this time).

If you calculate that out, it would mean the batters are responsible for 9.8 wins and the pitchers 0.2.

Sounds about right.

K-BB% Percentiles

I’ve heard a lot about this metric, particularly that it is a better predictor of success than ERA.

These are the Astros starters and their percentile rankings in this metric.

It’s still early, but here is the general scale:

Elite: 15-20%

Solid/Above Average: 12-15%

Average: 11-13%

Poor: Below 10%

As of this writing, the league average is 13.0%.

Astros Expected Wins

Going 2-1 and outscoring the Guardians 16-10, added 4 wins to the Astros total, but…

AL West Expected Wins

They are still last in the AL West.

MLB Expected Wins

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If there was a way to lose the Astros found it, with blame being shared by the bats, arms and gloves across three games.

On to Cleveland for the 8-15 Astros.

Updated Projections

We are now 14.2% of the way through the season; it’s still early, but it’s getting late quickly in Houston.

Dustin Harris joins the Astros. Ironically, Harris was one of my favorites when the kid and I ventured to Round Rock over the last couple of seasons.

Something about the way he carried himself said, “Major Leaguer” to me, but we’ll see if my observational skills are any better than my dubious scouting skills.

The Sugar Land Shuffle is busy on the pitching staff, with guys coming and going every day the team is in Houston.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Peter Lambert has been added to the growing list.

Quality Starts

Only the Nationals (1) have fewer quality starts than the Astros, with the White Sox, Rockies, and Athletics also having 3.

That is not a list you want to be on.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Game Scores

A surprisingly high score of 51 by Burrows on Sunday, given that he only went 4.2.

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.

So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

20 Starts: 2 A+, 2 A, 1 B, 3 C, 1 D and 14 F.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get 8, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Batters have combined for 5.4 fWAR, while the putrid pitching staff is at -0.4.

K-BB% Percentiles

I’ve heard a lot about this metric, particularly that it is a better predictor of success than ERA.

These are the Astros starters and where they rank percentile-wise in this metric.

Arrighetti gets another chance tonight.

Astros Expected Wins

Being swept in 3 games and outscored 23-14 means the Astros dropped 5 games in expected wins amid early-season volatility since we last got together.

Yikes.

AL West Expected Wins

No one’s running away with the West, but the Astros are running in the wrong direction.

MLB Expected Wins

Fixed the scale.

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I would have felt much better with a sweep of Colorado, but that didn’t happen, as the offense fell short.

If this pitching staff holds an opponent, any opponent, to 3 runs, you have to win that game.

Updated Projections

We are now 12.3% of the way through the season; it’s still early, but we are beginning to get a feeling where the season ahead is headed.

Record by Starting Pitcher

The list of starters is growing daily and will continue to grow this evening with the Astros debut of Peter Lambert.

Quality Starts

Three quality starts in 20 games is not a good sign.

The chart below is a clear warning about not-so-good things.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Game Scores

Spencer Arrighetti’s 69 led the way in increasing the average to 41.9, but that is still far below the MLB average (50).

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.

So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

20 Starts: 2 A+, 2 A, 1 B, 2 C, and 13 F.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get 8, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Batters have combined for 4.8 fWAR, while the putrid pitching staff is at -0.4.

K-BB% Percentiles

I’ve heard a lot about this metric, particularly that it is a better predictor of success than ERA.

These are the Astros starters and where they rank percentile-wise in this metric.

Perhaps it’s just me, and it was a one game sample, but I find it fascinating that Colton Gordon is in the same percentile as Hunter Brown.

I’m also encouraged by Arrighetti and Lance’s numbers here, but again, small sample.

Burrows is disappointing as is Imai.

Astros Expected Wins

Early-season volatility is crazy. At this stage, this is nothing but laying the groundwork for a 162-game slog.

This ticked up 2 games with the results of the Colorado series.

AL West Expected Wins

The AL West is developing into an interesting follow.

I didn’t say great, just interesting.

MLB Expected Wins

Still early and I doubt any of the 100+ win teams stay there, with the exception of you know who, and even then it won’t be close to 120.

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There’s not much to say other than what Carlos Correa said post-game on Monday.

I would say the bright side is that the Rockies and Cardinals are dead ahead, but the Rockies contributed mightily to this spiral, taking all three last week in Colorado.

But we’re not just fans in good times. We’re here for the bad, too.

As Pat Green once sang, “Life would be awfully boring if the good times were all that we had.”

Updated Projections

We are now 10.5% of the way through the season; it’s still early, but it’s certainly time to be concerned about the injuries.

Maybe it wasn’t Jeremiah Randall’s fault after all.

The Sugar Land Shuffle is in full effect, with the yoyo of J.P. France, Christian Roa, and anyone else available.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Colton Gordon will get his shot at breaking the streak tonight.

Quality Starts

Quality starts feel like a pipe dream at this point.

The chart below is a clear warning about not-so-good things.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Game Scores

The team average has dropped from 45.4 to 40.6 since we last talked, down to 20% below the MLB average (50) over the 4 games in Seattle.

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.

So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

17 Starts: 2 A+, 1 A, 1 B, 2 C, and 11 F.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get 6, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Unfortunately, I didn’t have to change the sentence above since the second consecutive update.

Astros Expected Wins

Early-season volatility is crazy. At this stage, this is nothing but laying the groundwork for a 162-game slog.

AL West Expected Wins

Rangers and Mariners seize the lead.

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In the span of 13 games, the Astros went from a team that couldn’t score (2 runs combined in their first two games) to a dominant offensive unit (the next 9 games) and back to a struggling offense that couldn’t stop anyone from scoring (the last two games).

What a ride it’s been, and there are 149 games to go.

But the Astros have real problems and real injuries to deal with.

As I type this, there have been no official moves on the Astros roster, but word is that J.P. France and Taylor Trammell are in Seattle, and it’s just a matter of time before they are added, with Cristian Javier and Jake Meyers being the unfortunate reciprocal moves to the IL.

As a result, I have included the anticipated moves below.

Updated Projections

We are now 8.0% of the way through the season, and it’s obviously still early and not time to panic, but it’s certainly a time to be concerned with Brown and Javier injured, not to mention Myers.

It will be interesting to see how the org navigates the pitching staff for the next little while, with two starters down and the bullpen ineffective.

Seattle is struggling, too, perhaps more than Houston, so it’s the movable force against the stoppable object in the next four.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Quality Starts

The same two lonely quality starts for a pitching staff that is nowhere near playoff-caliber.

The chart below is a big, gigantic flashing sign of not good things.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Game Scores

How bad has it been? Cristian Javier’s one-inning outing, where he had a score of 35, was the highest of his three starts.

Yikes.

The team average is 45.4, which is below the average MLB start (50).

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.

So, I’ve taken the scores and transformed them into a letter grade as you’d get in school.

This is a work in progress and not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through this in real time.

That said, look at the Fs.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get 6, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Unfortunately, I didn’t have to change the sentence above since the last update.

Astros Expected Wins

Early-season volatility is crazy. At this stage, this is nothing but laying the groundwork for a 162-game slog.

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By Seattle sports fans, for Seattle sports fans. SeaTown Sports provides insight and analysis on Seattle's sports teams.

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AL West Expected Wins

Rangers take the early lead.

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Even if you were a preseason believer, I’m not sure you imagined the Astros leading the league in runs scored and a host of other numbers.

I certainly didn’t.

It’s a fascinating watch that will need to continue to support a less-than-stellar pitching staff that will be without its ace for the foreseeable future.

Updated Projections

We are now 6.2% of the way through the season, so it’s obviously still early.

We will see Brown’s numbers below decrease as the missed starts pile up.

Christian Walker is up to 95 projected RBI and is off to a fantastic start.

The only Astros really on the struggle bus early is Brice Matthews, who is rocking a .118/.211/.353 slash with a 52.6% strikeout rate.

Chandler Rome has posted that Roddery Munoz has been released, but I haven’t made the change here because nothing official from the team yet.

I sometimes write about wasted roster spots. This was one and this one is on Dana Brown.

Not sure what to say about Bryan Abreu, but Hader’s loss is proving to be a big one, even if it is temporary.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Quality Starts

None since we last talked, though Imai did have a Kikuchi Start and just couldn’t get the 18th out.

Obviously, Brown’s injury makes this tougher, and with Cody Bolton starting tonight, it will almost certainly fall to 2/11.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Game Scores

Two times through the rotation and Lance’s first start against the Red Sox is the high score at 75.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together and you get 6, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Astros Expected Wins

Early-season volatility is crazy. At this stage, this is nothing but laying the groundwork for a 162-game slog.

AL West Expected Wins

An early look at the AL West expected wins.

I’ll be back on Friday with the next update.

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How surprising have the Astros bats been? Well, they lead MLB in batters’ fWAR.

Now THAT is surprising.

A while back, I posited that Yordan could make up to a 10-game difference if he was healthy. So far, that looks closer to true than hyperbole, and it could even be an understatement if he continues at this pace.

Next up, 10 games in 11 days on a roadie to Sacramento, Colorado, and Seattle (4 games), with the day off coming between Colorado and Seattle on April 9, which will be the last off day until April 23.

Updated Projections

Just 4.3% of the way through the season, all projections should be taken with a grain of salt.

As an illustration of how our rolling projections work, let’s take a look at a comparison of Altuve’s preseason projection and his current projection.

Jose’s hot early start has added 3 points to his projected average, 8 points to OBP and slug, and 16 points to his OPS.

An early home run bumps his current projection to 23, while his projected RBI remain at 68.

These projections are currently weighted 95.7% to preseason projections and 4.3% to actual season results.

The plan is to look at hot or cold players during the season to see how the season affects their updated projections as it goes on.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Quality Starts

The Astros have won both of their quality starts, but the problem (again, it’s early) is that they aren’t getting many.

Last season, the Astros won over 70% of their quality starts and less than 40% of games when they didn’t get a quality start.

It’s early, but they will fail if they only get 29% quality starts, a pace of 46 on the season.

Early Peak at Win Shares

I’ll pretty this up as the season moves along and put a chart to it, but wanted to share this early look at Win Shares for Houston.

Astros Expected Wins

From 0 to 106 in 6 games (getting shutout in game 1 means they were projected to go 0-162 after 1 game).

Early-season volatility is crazy. At this stage, this is nothing but laying the groundwork for a 162-game slog.

AL West Expected Wins

An early look at the AL West expected wins lines up this way: Astros, Rangers, Mariners, Angels, A’s.

Subjectively, that matches up with the early results for me.

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Remember - it’s early - something I had to tell myself repeatedly this weekend.

In fact, 4 games is just 2.5% of the way through a season, and any comments I make below should be kept with that - and the fact that 97.5% of the regular season remains - in mind.

First, the updated projections.

Season Projections

Field Notes

Random takeaways from the weekend, but remember to take these lightly at this point in the season.

1. Christian Walker looks much better with 3 doubles and 3 RBI over the weekend and only 1 strikeout over 16 plate appearances, along with a hard hit % of 66.7% and 95.6 average exit velo.

2. Yordan looks healthy. Let’s hope it stays that way. He was a big piece of the missing power from last year, but that said, no other Astro homered in the series.

3. Still concerned about the outfield, though Joey Loperfido was solid, and everyone had their moments.

4. Isaac looked smooth at second base, though there will be balls he can’t get to over the course of the season. Some of the offseason commentary led me to believe he would be a disaster there, and time will tell, but he played fine.

5. Yainer did not look interested in batting.

6. Jose Altuve seeing 78 pitches and walking 5 times over 18 plate appearances was something.

7. It looks like Espada is going to play everybody and not waste a spot (last season, he had players that would barely play over two weeks). Three different starting centerfielders in four games (yay), Isaac at second base, Loperfido at multiple positions, pinch running, etc.

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8. The rotation was ineffective and inefficient - guess which team leads the MLB in walks? Houston. Yikes.

9. Abreu’s Sunday velocity is a huge red flag.

10. Don’t understand Roddery Munoz at all. It’s like he’s learning how to pitch at the MLB level. Feels like a wasted spot that will cost the Astros a game at some point. This is something a rebuilding team would do.

11. Bullpen in general is a huge question mark, but Okert and King look solid.

    Front Row & Backstage

    "The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

    By Brad Kyle

Astros Expected Wins

When you go .500 and are outscored, this is what you get early in the season.

Expected Wins - AL West

I’ll have these for all divisions eventually, but right now they are so wonky (Giants projected to go 2-160) they’re pretty useless.

These will fluctuate wildly early in the season. Just don’t be the Giants.

Thanks for reading, more on Friday.

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