Let’s start off with the basics: Batter and Pitcher projections 89% of the way through the regular season.

That means 89% of this are actual performance and 11% projections.

The Astros have signed Jorge Barrosa and optioned Jake Meyers.

Yordan is back to 40 projected homers, but the team is now down to 207 projected homers.

The team’s home run pace is 210 - so, they are much closer together than they have been recently.

September wRC+

The team has a 76 wRC+ for the 6 September games.

It’s crunch time.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Record by Starting Pitcher

Quality Starts

Game Scores

Starting Pitcher Grades

AL West Playoff Update (as of September 7)

First, let’s take a look at what fangraphs.com says about a potential playoff run (through games of September 6):

Projected Remaining Record: 9-9 (Previous 14-14)

Projected Final Record: 82-80 (Previous 81-81)

Win Division: 76.2% (Previous 43.7%)

Wild Card: 2.4% (Previous 8.2%)

Make Playoffs: 88.1% (Previous 51.9%)

I’m also projecting an 82-80 record and AL West crown.

If the Astros Go…

A little game I like to play.

Every Astros win adds immense pressure to Texas and Seattle, as illustrated by the graphic below.

A simple .500 record means the Rangers have to win 2 of every 3 and the Mariners 5 of every 6.

Go 10-8 and the heat is really on those teams.

Thanks for reading!

Subscribe now

Share

Leave a comment

First, let’s take a look at what fangraphs.com says about a potential playoff run (through games of September 3):

Projected Remaining Record: 11-10 (Previous 13-12)

Projected Final Record: 83-79 (Previous 82-80)

Win Division: 72.9% (Previous 64.6%)

Wild Card: 4.9% (Previous 3.2%)

Make Playoffs: 77.9% (Previous 67.9%)

Expected Wins (as of September 3)

First, the big picture.

This chart tells you about the entire season, but it doesn’t tell you a whole lot about recency, because it’s 141 data points all jammed together.

So, I created these two that start in August.

These two contain the same information, in a different format.

SeaTown Sports

By Seattle sports fans, for Seattle sports fans — insight and analysis on every team in town.

By Kevin Cacabelos

The AL West Race

So far, we’ve been looking at the Astros in a vacuum, without regard to any other team, but that’s not how this works.

Here is my traditional look at the AL West. What a division.

So, I’m projecting a 10-11 finish for Houston, not the 11-10 that Fangraphs projects.

Here is what the AL West looks like under my current projections:

A note - the win totals and GB are rounded.

Here’s a graphic I put together to tell you why the Astros playoff projection % is so high and just what teams have to accomplish to overcome Houston.

Remember the Mariners have an “easy” schedule ahead as do the Rangers.

What this really shows you is if the Astros play competent ball over the next 21 games, it will be difficult to overcome.

If the Astros play really well, say 14-7, the Rangers would have to win 17 of 21 and the Mariners 20 of 21.

Because of the tiebreakers the Rangers have to make up 3 games and the Mariners 6.

The Astros have the tiebreaker over the Rangers, the Rangers have the tiebreaker over the Mariners and the Mariners have the tiebreaker over the Astros.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Batter and Pitcher Projections

I made an adjustment on Blubaugh and the numbers below seem more in line with what his final numbers should look like.

August wRC+ Final Numbers

Another poor month for Christian Walker.

I’m traveling this week, so updates will be sporadic and likely shorter.

Thank you for your understanding and thanks for reading!

Subscribe now

Share

Leave a comment

Don’t get it twisted, Houston has a long way to go over the next 25 games and if last year taught us anything, it’s that having a two game lead in late August doesn’t assure you of a postseason.

But - it’s better than the alternative.

First, let’s take a look at what fangraphs.com says about a potential playoff run (through games of August 30):

Projected Remaining Record: 13-12 (Previous 14-14)

Projected Final Record: 82-80 (Previous 81-81)

Win Division: 64.6% (Previous 43.7%)

Wild Card: 3.2% (Previous 8.2%)

Make Playoffs: 67.9% (Previous 51.9%)

Expected Wins (as of August 30)

First, the big picture.

This chart tells you about the entire season, but it doesn’t tell you a whole lot about recency, because it’s 137 data points all jammed together.

So, I created these two that start in August.

These two contain the same information, in a different format.

SeaTown Sports

By Seattle sports fans, for Seattle sports fans — insight and analysis on every team in town.

By Kevin Cacabelos

The AL West Race

So far, we’ve been looking at the Astros in a vacuum, without regard to any other team, but that’s not how this works.

Here is my traditional look at the AL West. What a division.

So, I’m projecting a 12-13 finish for Houston, not the 13-12 that Fangraphs projects.

Here is what the AL West looks like under my current projections:

A note - the win totals and GB are rounded.

Here’s a graphic I put together to tell you why the Astros playoff projection % is so high and just what teams have to accomplish to overcome Houston.

Remember the Mariners have an “easy” schedule ahead as do the Rangers.

What this really shows you is if the Astros play competent ball over the next 25 games, it will be difficult to overcome.

Because of the tiebreakers the Rangers have to make up 3 games and the Mariners 5.

The Astros have the tiebreaker over the Rangers, the Rangers have the tiebreaker over the Mariners and the Mariners have the tiebreaker over the Astros.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Batter and Pitcher Projections

Win Shares

Yordan is still way ahead, but Isaac becomes the second batter in double figures.

A quality start gives Brown a nice bump past Enyel.

I’ll be traveling a good bit this week, hitting Round Rock Tuesday, San Antonio Friday, so updates will be sporadic and likely shorter.

Thank you for your understanding and thanks for reading!

Subscribe now

Share

Leave a comment

The working plan is instead of one large update on off days, the updates will be broken down over multiple posts as time allows.

Thanks for your indulgence.

Today, we focus on player projections, August wRC+, record by starting pitcher and a look at the AL West race.

First up, the batters.

With only one homer in the month as play finished on the 27th, Yordan is down to 39 projected homers.

I always thought he was somewhat of a homer regression candidate, but I did not expect just one over a month.

Expect him to pick it up in the coming days.

Despite Yordan’s homer drought, I’m projecting 210 homers for the Astros, who are on pace for 216, up from 213 in our last post.

The starting pitching has been horrific, but one bright spot has been Hayden Wesneski. As we’ll see shortly, the Astros are 5-1 in his starts.

Another name that has gone under the radar is A.J. Blubaugh.

Blubaugh’s role means he won’t earn much fWAR (0.5), but he is on pace to cover 99 innings in the bullpen. He needs an award just for that.

I have him at a much higher total that he’s not likely to reach, as it would require 32 innings over the next 28 games.

Yeoman's work.

August wRC+ Check-In

The team has a 95 wRC+ so far in August.

Despite the dearth of homers this month, Yordan is still slashing .296/.426/457 for August.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Record by Starting Pitcher

As mentioned earlier, the team is 5-1 when Wesneski starts.

There has been some expected regression with Lambert.

AL West Playoff Update

First, let’s take a look at what fangraphs.com says about a potential playoff run (through games of August 27):

Projected Remaining Record: 14-14 (Previous 16-15)

Projected Final Record: 81-81 (Previous 81-81)

Win Division: 43.7% (Previous 37.5%)

Wild Card: 8.2% (Previous 8.7%)

Make Playoffs: 51.9% (Previous 46.2%)

I’m projecting 13-15, and 80-82 record and first place in the AL West.

Next update to be determined.

Thanks for reading!

Subscribe now

Share

Leave a comment

Today, we focus on player projections, quality starts, record by starting pitcher, August wRC+ (and monthly) and Win Shares.

First up, the batters.

Yordan projecting to 40 home runs, 101 RBI, and a 1.035 OPS and has upped the projected plate appearances to 640.

I was incorrect last week when I wrote about my projected home run total. Not sure where the mix up was, but the large discrepancy caused me to go back and rework my projections and it now sits at 207.

The team is “on pace” for 213 (down from 218 last week) home runs, so I still see some more downside coming.

The pitching has been horrific and it has spread to the bullpen as of late.

August wRC+ Check-In

The team has a 91 wRC+ so far in August and struggled to score in the recent homestand.

The charts below are interesting perhaps only to me. What they show is some players have been very consistent - Yordan and Paredes for example, while others are wildly inconsistent - Pena, Cam and Altuve.

Walker seems to be in his own category - on fire for March and April, well below average since. Walker raked for a 154 wRC+ in March in April, but since then? 104 in May, 88 in June, 98, in July and 80 so far in August.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Win Shares

Batters 49.1 Win Shares

Pitchers 15.9 Win Shares

Record by Starting Pitcher

Hunter Brown wasn’t terrible, but who saw a 6-8 record in his starts? If that is turned around to say 8-6, the Astros are in a much better spot.

He just hasn’t been the dominating pitcher he was and perhaps is still working back from his injury (speculating).

Quality Starts

Game Scores and Starter Grades

MLB xWins through August 23

Next update to be determined. I will be traveling most of next week.

Thanks for reading!

Subscribe now

Share

Leave a comment

Consequently, there’s been a nosedive in the Astros odds of winning the West and/or making the playoffs.

First, let’s take a look at what fangraphs.com says about a potential playoff run (through games of August 23):

Projected Remaining Record: 16-15 (Previous 19-18)

Projected Final Record: 81-81 (Previous 82-80)

Win Division: 37.5% (Previous 52.2%)

Wild Card: 8.7% (Previous 10.2%)

Make Playoffs: 46.2% (Previous 62.2%)

Expected Wins (as of August 23)

First, the big picture.

This chart tells you about the entire season, but it doesn’t tell you a whole lot about recency, because it’s 131 data points all jammed together.

So, I created these two that start after the All-Star Break.

These two contain the same information, in a different format.

The important thing is, you can clearly see the Astros rise from a projected 76 wins to the current 80.

SeaTown Sports

By Seattle sports fans, for Seattle sports fans — insight and analysis on every team in town.

By Kevin Cacabelos

The AL West Race

So far, we’ve been looking at the Astros in a vacuum, without regard to any other team, but that’s not how this works.

Here is my traditional look at the AL West. What a division.

So, I’m projecting a 15-16 finish for Houston, not the 16-15 that Fangraphs projects.

I use a formula I created that blends the Pythagorean formula with actual wins and losses over the course of the season, weighting wins and losses more heavily as the season progresses.

When I do that to this point in the season, I get these results:

How to read these: My formula says the Astros “should be” 64-67 - they have overperformed by a game, as have the Rangers and Mariners.

The Plus/Minus column tells you these standings have 1 less win than the actual standings.

What this graphic also shows you is how close my formula correlates to the actual standings, with no team more than a game off the actual standings 125ish games into the season.

Using the PCT column above we can extrapolate the entire season to a final of:

A note - the win totals are rounded. A .491 winning percentage = 79.542 wins. Obviously, the Astros won’t have 79.542 wins, so we round to the closest whole number, 80 in this case.

The Astros and Rangers have the same records, but the Astros run differential is +2 over the Rangers and that makes the difference here.

Basically, it’s a dead heat with a month to go.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

MLB Expected Wins (as of August 23)

Brewers and Dodgers leading the league.

Next Week’s Schedule

I hope to have a typical update tomorrow, but we’ll see.

I’ll be traveling a good bit next week, hitting Round Rock Tuesday, San Antonio Friday, and traveling on Saturday, so updates will be sporadic and likely shorter.

Thank you for your understanding!

Subscribe now

Share

Leave a comment

Today, we focus on player projections, quality starts, record by starting pitcher, and August wRC+.

We didn’t update win shares, because there has only been one win since our last update. Look for that next Monday.

First up, the batters.

Yordan projecting to 40 home runs, 101 RBI, and a 1.035 OPS and has upped the projected plate appearances to 632.

Of note - the team homer projection from me is down to 188, after being around 200 for a good chunk of the season. The team is “on pace” for 218 home runs.

For my current projection to come true the Astros would have to hit just 20 home runs in their last 37 games - unlikely.

For the 218 to come true the Astros would need to hit 50 home runs in their last 37 games - very possible - this is their pace through the first 125 games.

As the games tick away these two numbers will diverge and I’m of the opinion it’ll be closer to 218 than 188.

Blanco optioned after a particularly bad bullpen outing and Ullola recalled, but who knows for how long.

Instability in your rotation is not something you want down the stretch run, but here we are, with Ethan Pecko apparently and option.

August wRC+ Check-In

The team has a 100 wRC+ so far in August.

A slight pullback from Yordan, but, I mean, he’s still rocking a 137 for the first half of August.

I found some interesting trends when I look at this stat month by month, that I plan to publish soon.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Record by Starting Pitcher

Peter Lambert, Ace of Staff.

Quality Starts

Game Scores and Starter Grades

MLB xWins through August 16

Next updates will probably be next Monday and Tuesday.

Thanks for reading!

Subscribe now

Share

Leave a comment

First, let’s take a look at what fangraphs.com says about a potential playoff run (through games of August 16):

Projected Remaining Record: 19-18 (Previous 20-20)

Projected Final Record: 82-80 (Previous 82-80)

Win Division: 52.2% (Previous 52.4%)

Wild Card: 10.2% (Previous 10.6%)

Make Playoffs: 62.2% (Previous 63.0%)

To summarize: Odds of winning division or earning wild card spot down slightly after losing two of three to the Mariners.

Still trending toward division champs OR non-playoff team.

Expected Wins (as of August 16)

First, the big picture.

This chart tells you about the entire season, but it doesn’t tell you a whole lot about recency, because it’s 125 data points all jammed together.

So, I created these two that start after the All-Star Break.

These two contain the same information, in a different format.

The important thing is, you can clearly see the Astros rise from a projected 76 wins to the current 81.

SeaTown Sports

By Seattle sports fans, for Seattle sports fans — insight and analysis on every team in town.

By Kevin Cacabelos

The AL West Race

So far, we’ve been looking at the Astros in a vacuum, without regard to any other team, but that’s not how this works.

Here is my traditional look at the AL West.

So, I’m projecting a 18-19 finish for Houston, not the 19-18 that Fangraphs projects.

I use a formula I created that blends the Pythagorean formula with actual wins and losses over the course of the season, weighting wins and losses more heavily as the season progresses.

When I do that to this point in the season, I get these results:

How to read these: My formula says the Astros “should be” 62-63 - they have overperformed by a game. The Plus/Minus column tells you these standings have 1 less win than the actual standings.

What this graphic also shows you is how close my formula correlates to the actual standings, with no team more than a game off the actual standings 125ish games into the season.

Using the PCT column above we can extrapolate the entire season to a final of:

A note - the win totals are rounded. A .498 winning percentage = 80.676 wins. Obviously, the Astros won’t have 80.676 wins, so we round to the closest whole number, 81 in this case.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

MLB Expected Wins (as of August 16)

Brewers back to 100 xWins.

I plan on being back tomorrow with the regular updates.

Thanks for reading!

Subscribe now

Share

Leave a comment

Today, we focus on player projections, win shares and quality starts.

First up, the batters.

Amazing that Yordan is struggling a bit but still projects for 40 home runs, 101 RBI, and a 1.037 OPS.

Perhaps his biggest asset all season is his availability.

Never in my wildest dreams did I think he would see the plate 626 times, as currently projected.

After a shaky beginning, another solid 3 shutout innings out of the bullpen on Wednesday for Tatsuya Imai.

Perhaps that’s his role this season, as he is certainly adding value in the role (as we’ll see in Win Shares) over 2 appearances.

A.J. Blubaugh is not talked about enough.

The demise of Brian King (in a relief role) warrants study.

King was always a regression candidate, but he can’t go an outing without giving up a bomb, run, or a couple of walks.

August wRC+ Check-In

The team has a 96 wRC+ so far in August.

I’ve been fairly critical of Cam’s offense this season, if not on these pages then in real-life discussions.

It’s only Mid-August, but he’s been really good recently.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Record by Starting Pitcher

Quality Starts

Game Scores and Starter Grades

Win Shares

Add all these together, and the net should be around 62 (due to rounding).

It’s split like this: Batters 48.5 wins, pitchers 13.5 wins.

Yikes.

MLB xWins through August 12

Thanks for reading!

Subscribe now

Share

Leave a comment

I don’t want it to get lost at the end of a lot of numbers.

First, let’s take a look at what fangraphs.com says about a potential playoff run (through games of August 12):

Projected Remaining Record: 20-20 (Previous 24-22)

Projected Final Record: 82-80 (Previous 83-79)

Win Division: 52.4% (Previous 39.1%)

Wild Card: 10.6% (Previous 17.2%)

Make Playoffs: 63.0% (Previous 56.3%)

To summarize: Odds of winning division have increased in the last week; the odds of being a wild card entrant have decreased.

Trending toward division champs OR non-playoff team.

There is good news - in case of a tie with the Rangers, the Astros would be the winner by virtue of the Silver Boot stomping that has occurred this summer.

Expected Wins (as of August 12)

First, the big picture.

This chart tells you about the entire season, but it doesn’t tell you a whole lot about recency, because it’s 120 data points all jammed together.

So, I created these two that start after the All-Star Break.

These two contain the same information, in a different format.

The important thing is, you can clearly see the Astros rise from a projected 76 wins to the current 81.

SeaTown Sports

By Seattle sports fans, for Seattle sports fans — insight and analysis on every team in town.

By Kevin Cacabelos

The AL West Race

So far, we’ve been looking at the Astros in a vacuum, without regard to any other team, but that’s not how this works.

Here is my traditional look at the AL West.

So, I’m projecting a 19-21 finish for Houston, not the 20-20 that fangraphs projects.

I use a formula I created, which blends the Pythagorean formula with actual wins and losses over the course of the season, with the actual wins and losses weighted more and more as the season progresses.

When I do that to this point in the season, I get these results:

How to read these: My formula says the Astros “should be” 61-61 - they have overperformed by a game. The Plus/Minus column tells you these standings have 1 less win than the actual standings.

What this graphic also shows you is how close my formula correlates to the actual standings, with no team more than a game off the actual standings 120ish games into the season.

Using the PCT column above we can extrapolate the entire season to a final of:

A note - the win totals are rounded. A .501 winning percentage = 81.162 wins. Obviously, the Astros won’t have 81.162 wins, so we round to the closest whole number, 81 in this case.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

MLB Expected Wins (as of August 12)

Dodgers stumble, Cubs chasing the Brewers.

Zero 100-win teams currently projected.

I plan on being back tomorrow with the regular updates.

Thanks for reading!

Subscribe now

Share

Leave a comment

The Jays were down 3-0, had 0 hits, the Astros ace was on the mound, and when Andres Gimenez grounded out to second, Houston’s win probability was 89.2%.

It had to hurt for a team that missed the playoffs by one game last season.

Let’s take a look at what fangraphs.com says about a potential playoff run (as of August 6):

Projected Remaining Record: 24-22 (Previous 26-26)

Projected Final Record: 83-79 (Previous 81-81)

Win Division: 39.1% (Previous 21.3%)

Wild Card: 17.2% (Previous 17.2%)

Make Playoffs: 56.34% (Previous 38.6%)

They are well over 50% to make the playoffs for the first time I can remember this season.

I don’t generally fret over 1 regular season game, but that one should have been in the win column.

Expected Wins (as of August 6)

The Astros reached 82 expected wins before yesterday’s debacle.

Hopefully, this post-All-Star Break breakout clarifies recency a bit.

Will likely be a close race to mediocrity in the AL West.

July/August wRC+

Yordan has cooled a bit, if you can believe that, but continues to be 200+ and Pena has been scorching hot.

Nice month for Yainer.

Yordan continues his run early in August, with Altuve having a couple of big games, too.

Paredes is wearing an 0-15.

Updated Projections

The Lucas Spence experience has been optioned, and Varsho is an upgrade. Not sure how much of one, but an upgrade nonetheless.

To date, the team has slashed .246/.322/.416 with 157 home runs on the season.

In order, those would rank 11th, 9th, 6th, and 4th in the league, lending credence to my theory that this is a power-laden team.

The 157 home runs in 116 games puts the Astros on a 219 home run pace, but my algorithm sees the top end around 206.

The pitching has improved - all three Toronto games were quality starts (and they somehow managed to lose two of them).

On the season, the team ERA is 4.62 and xERA of 4.26, with starters coming in at 5.10 (28th) and relievers 4.03 (15th).

In 13 games since July 1st, Bryan Abreu has pitched to a 1.32 ERA over 13.2 innings, allowing just 6 hits and 4 walks (still high), while averaging 96.3 MPH on his four-seam.

The starters had 7 quality starts in July, but a 5.57 ERA, with the bullpen recording a 3.33 ERA for the month.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Lambert continues to be the savior.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Quality Starts

This number has ticked up a bit, but still a long way from previous seasons.

On pace for 49 after 70 last season.

Game Scores

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in an easier-to-understand format.

So, I’ve converted the scores into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

Win Shares

Yordan took a step back, despite adding to his fWAR because there are more wins to divy and more players are performing.

Lambert continues to be the most valuable pitcher.

MLB Expected Wins (as of August 6)

Not a great week for the Dodgers, other than getting Tarik Skubal.

I’ll be back (probably) next Friday.

Thanks for reading!

Subscribe now

Share

Leave a comment

This wasn’t sudden. Unless you consider 9 days sudden. Perhaps in the scheme of a 162-game MLB season, it is.

The Astros were last .500 or better on April 7. More than three and a half months ago. Not sudden. It’s been a long slog.

The Astros’ current streak of 8 wins in 9 games began on July 20th. Tomorrow is August 1st.

Let’s take a look at what fangraphs.com says about a potential playoff run (as of July 30):

Projected Remaining Record: 26-26 (Previous 29-29)

Projected Final Record: 81-81 (Previous 79-83)

Win Division: 21.3% (Previous 12.3%)

Wild Card: 17.2% (Previous 11.5%)

Make Playoffs: 38.6% (Previous 23.9%)

Win 5 of 6 (since last published) and your odds improve.

Funny how that works.

But the Rangers and Mariners being mediocre has certainly helped.

Expected Wins

The Astros are up to 79 expected wins in my formula and the reason they are below .500 is run differential (-41).

Hopefully, this post-All-Star Break breakout clarifies recency a bit.

The Astros are within 2 xWins of the AL West lead (as of July 30):

July wRC+

Yordan has cooled a bit, if you can believe that, but continues to be 200+ and Pena has been scorching hot.

Updated Projections

One wonders how long the Lucas Spence experience can continue.

Amazingly, Bryan Abreu is 7 for 7 in save opportunities.

The team has a 4.62 ERA in July, with the starters at 5.70 and the bullpen at 3.45.

The starters have improved slightly recently, but Imai is the standout and not in a good way, rolling with a 7.71 ERA (9.05 xERA, 7.91 FIP and 6.71 xFIP) in July.

The bats have been consistent, but not flashy, and are slashing .240/.317/.417 with 35 HR and 108 runs in 22 July games (4.91 R/G).

The slug dropped a bit since last week.

Record by Starting Pitcher

The crazy thing about Imai struggling is that the team scores and wins when he pitches, averaging 6.46 runs and going 10-5.

For reference, the Astros average 4.19 runs for Lambert, 4.03 for Arrighetti and 4.67 for Brown.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Quality Starts

Wesneski missed a quality by an out, but still provided what was needed - 17 outs and kept the team in the game.

On pace for 47 after 70 last season.

Game Scores

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in an easier-to-understand format.

So, I’ve converted the scores into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

Win Shares

Let me know what you think of the new format. I’m still messing around with it, hoping to make it easier to read.

Yordan continues to dominate; Pena has passed Paredes.

Lambert most valuable pitcher.

MLB Expected Wins (as of July 30)

I’ll be back (probably) next Friday.

Thanks for reading!

Subscribe now

Share

Leave a comment

Not ideal, but certainly better than it looked Sunday afternoon.

Before we get to the expected wins, let’s take a look at what fangraphs.com says about a potential playoff run:

Projected Remaining Record: 29-29

Projected Final Record: 79-83

Win Division: 12.3%

Wild Card: 11.5%

Make Playoffs: 23.9%

That feels about right to me, and as we’ll see, better than what I am currently projecting.

Expected Wins

The Astros still can’t seem to get past 77 expected wins, which they have now reached 5 times since June 30, only to fall back.

After the sweep of the Marlins, they once again sit at 77, with trips to Chicago and Anaheim on tap.

Hopefully, this post-All-Star Break breakout clarifies recency a bit.

The Astros are within 6 xWins of the AL West lead.

July wRC+

Alvarez, Pena and Paredes continue to lead the offense, while Walker and Smith have struggled mightily.

Updated Projections

My son and I were in the house for Lucas Spence’s debut, and based on a whole two games in person and four on TV, my takeaway is he is very similar to Jake - a good fielder (maybe half a notch below Jake) and a mediocre bat (maybe half a notch above Jake, but too early to tell).

The team has a 4.69 ERA in July, with the starters at 5.78 and the bullpen at 3.43.

The starters have been better over these last 6 days (two Lambert starts, one for other rotation members) - 3.62.

The bats are slashing .241/.310/.429 with 26 HR and 76 runs in 16 July games (4.75 R/G).

Record by Starting Pitcher

How does Astros Ace Peter Lambert sound?

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Quality Starts

The number of quality starts has edged up, but as I feared, the winning percentage is regressing.

On pace for 48 after 70 last season.

Game Scores

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in an easier-to-understand format.

So, I’ve converted the scores into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

Win Shares

Let me know what you think of the new format. I’m still messing around with it, hoping to make it easier to read.

Yordan continues to dominate, but it’s been a nice season to date for Isaac, and Pena is on a tear.

MLB Expected Wins

I’ll be back (probably) next Friday.

Thanks for reading!

Subscribe now

Share

Leave a comment

My son and I will be there on Friday and Saturday.

Before we get to the expected wins, let’s take a look at what fangraphs.com says about a potential playoff run:

Projected Remaining Record: 32-32

Projected Final Record: 79-83

Win Division: 10.0%

Wild Card: 15.3%

Make Playoffs: 25.2%

That feels about right to me, and as we’ll see, better than what I am currently projecting.

Expected Wins

The Astros can’t seem to get past 77 expected wins, which they reached 4 times since June 30, only to fall back.

They currently sit at 76, which would place them 6 games behind the projected Division winner, the Seattle Mariners.

July wRC+

Reorganized to hopefully make it easier to read.

Updated Projections

Houston optioned Santa right before the break without a corresponding move that I have seen, so they are sitting at 12 pitchers as I type.

They will most certainly make a move for a 13th prior to Friday’s game.

The team has a 5.65 ERA in July, with the starters at 7.36 and the bullpen at 3.86, which wasn’t helped by a rough couple of outings by Brian King in the Rangers series.

The bats are slashing .242/.310/.438 with 17 HR and 52 runs in 10 July games.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Peter Lambert is the scheduled starter on Friday for Houston.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Quality Starts

Not enough.

On pace for 46 after 70 last season.

Game Scores

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in an easier-to-understand format.

So, I’ve converted the scores into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

I’ve changed this chart, hoping to improve it.

Win Shares

Let me know what you think of the new format. I’m still messing around with it, hoping to make it easier to read.

Yordan continues to dominate, but nice season to date by Isaac.

MLB Expected Wins

I likely won’t have another post until next Friday.

Thanks for reading!

Subscribe now

Share

Leave a comment

It’s no secret that Jose Altuve has declined in recent years, and now we’re at the point where the Astros leader sits at the All-Star Break with a .232 batting average (.228 xBA, 21st percentile).

I analyzed his descent last fall, and this is a follow-up to see what, if anything, has changed, for better or worse, in 2026.

One remarkable thing about Altuve’s career has stayed constant, though it is closer to being over than ever: With the exception of the pandemic season of 2020, Altuve has had a higher batting average than expected batting average every single year since it became a thing.

It’s precariously close this season, as close as it’s ever been, and could still flip, but at least for now it remains one of the few constants.

Checking in on Breaking Balls

Back then, I wrote that the biggest change in 2025 was that Altuve struggled against breaking balls, defined as curves, sliders, sweepers, slurves, and knuckleballs.

Overall, Altuve has improved against breaking balls this season, hitting .232 and slugging .453 on those pitches in 2026, including 6 home runs in 95 at-bats, after hitting just 6 in 229 at-bats in 2025.

That said, his xBA against breaking balls this season is a horrendous .189, so there is room for regression.

Different Season, Different Pitch

I’ve seen online chatter that Altuve still mashes the fastball, and while that’s true from time to time (.252 average, .411 slug, 5 HR in 163 AB), it’s not like last season when he hit .310 and slugged .555 on fastballs (18 HR in 281 AB).

The fact is, he has regressed on the fastballs as a whole, which include the 4-Seam, Sinker, and Cutter varieties.

Digging in, it’s the sinker that seems to be the biggest culprit this season, as he’s gone from hitting .296 with a .439 slugging percentage to .217 and .283 on the pitch, while the run value has gone from 0 in 2025 to -4 through 98 games in 2026.

When he hits it, he’s hitting it harder more often (44% hard hit), but his whiff% and K% have increased on the pitch - it’s literally hit or miss.

And pitchers aren’t dumb: After seeing four-seam fastballs more than any other pitch for every year for as long as they’ve been tracked, this season Altuve is seeing more sinkers than any other pitch.

Some Peripheral Information

Father Time gets us all eventually, but it often catches up with professional athletes in public.

Altuve still has pop when he connects, but he’s always been up and down on his exit velo.

For example, some of his lowest exit velo seasons were in 2017 and 2022, years when the Astros won the World Series.

But this only tracks when there is an exit velo, and with his whiff% and K% increases, 2026 has seen fewer of those.

I don’t know enough about bat speed to intelligently comment, but it’s obviously slowing down, and this looks more linear than the exit velo variance.

Over the last three seasons, it’s down 1.8 MPH.

Conclusion

There’s no calculation I could make to put the proper value on Jose Altuve’s worth to the Houston Astros.

Some things just aren’t measurable.

Baseball, though, is a game of measurables.

It’s OK to admit that Altuve isn’t what he once was, but is still a valuable member of the team and the Astros current best option at second base.

How much longer that remains true is the question.

Share

Subscribe now

Leave a comment

But Yordan Alvarez is putting up a season for the ages with 64 games left in the Astros regular season, and it’s clear to me that he is the American League MVP at this point of the season.

Let me explain.

The Numbers

Yordan leads in every category, some by miles, except for stolen bases and fWAR.

This also shows how much impact defense has on the fAR metric, especially for an elite shortstop.

The wonders of AI brought me this estimate:

There’s really no other explanation for why Witt, as good as he is, has more fWAR than Yordan and you could argue it’s remarkable that it’s as close as it is, with Alvarez having only played 120 innings in the field this season.

I’ve been fairly critical of the fWAR metric over the years and this is why I came up with Win Shares.

But the criticism is not because of the way fWAR accounts for defense - defense is important - but rather the metric doesn’t measure what the name says it measures.

So I decided to use it to come up with a metric that does measure what the name says - Win Shares.

The Win Shares Methodology

It’s really quite simple.

Note: I sum each individual player’s fWAR on a team and not the team total, because rounding is a thing on fangraphs.com.

The Results

Yordan has been worth 2.4 more wins than Witt, Jr., and 3.0 more wins than Kurtz.

Problems with Win Shares

As you can tell by the chart above, there’s a tendency for players on teams with fewer wins to be favored by this formula. Those teams generally have lower team fWAR overall, so the denominator is smaller.

On the flip side, by nature of being really good on a “not so great” team, these players are inherently carrying more of the load, even though that load is smaller, in general.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

For example, while both are extremely valuable, I’d argue that Yordan is more valuable to the Astros than Ben Rice is to the Yankees.

The Yankees may survive a Rice injury, as they are (kind of) doing with Judge out right now.

The Astros would be less likely to survive a Yordan injury.

Summary

This is a fun tool, but not the be-all and end-all, and I recognize it has limitations.

Any ideas for improving it are welcome.

In fact, if I were voting, it would be Yordan, then Caminero, then Witt, Jr.

Instead of a definitive answer, think of it as one more box checked. Yordan leads in most of the significant categories AND he adds more wins to his team than any other player by this metric.

Thanks for reading!

Share

Leave a comment

Subscribe now

There are two posts that I have wanted to do for some time, but haven’t had the time that I hope to get to during the break: 1) An update on this story from October on Jose Altuve’s struggles with breaking balls, and 2) Comparing Yordan and the rest of the AL via Win Shares as the MVP discussion grows.

The day-to-day projections continue to interest my numbers-loving brain, but there are other angles I’d like to attack during the post-All-Star Game season, too.

These are the first two.

Expected Wins

Houston has been as high as 77 expected wins recently, but no hire and Wednesday’s depressing loss drops it back to 76.

That means I’m projecting a 30-37 finish and a 76-86 record.

Fangraphs is projecting 4 more wins, a 33-34 post-All-Star game record, and a 79-83 finish.

Fangraphs gives the Astros a 10.6% chance of winning the AL West, a 20.8% chance of getting a Wild Card, and a 31.4% chance of making the playoffs.

Seems optimistic to me, someone who is typically optimistic isn’t feeling that way at the moment.

July wRC+

We are about a third of the way through the month calendar-wise, but more like halfway through it game-wise due to the 4-day break (from games).

The team has a 100 wRC+ for June with a .236/.305/.410 slash and has scored 35 runs in 7 games (5.0 runs per game).

This is a power-laden team with 10 home runs in July (1.43 per game) and 126 on the season (1.33 per game), putting them on pace for 215 home runs.

I currently project the team to 189 home runs.

My number seems low, but one injury could change that.

Updated Projections

Each game, moving forward, will push it 0.6% closer to the actual 2026 results.

The team has an ERA of 5.61 in June, with starters at 9.00 and the bullpen at 2.53.

Media reports that a left-handed hitting outfielder is the main target for Dana Brown, but you could acquire 3 of those and still not win with the current rotation.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Arrighetti is struggling and regressing hard after walking 6 on Wednesday.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Quality Starts

Perhaps help is coming, but I’ll die on this hill: You are not making the playoffs with 27.4% quality starts.

The 81% win percentage in quality starts is likely unsustainable, so you need as many as possible.

Game Scores

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in an easier-to-understand format.

So, I’ve converted the scores into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

Lots of red on this chart.

Win Shares

Add all these together, and you get a net of 46, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Yordan is running away with this, but dropped a bit from last time after a mediocre week.

MLB Expected Wins

The data below is through July 9.

Thanks for reading!

Share

Leave a comment

Subscribe now

In an all-too-familiar performance, Imai lasted just an inning and a third and required more yeoman’s work from A.J. Blubaugh, who has pitched more innings than Imai this season, despite Imai starting 12 games and Blubaugh starting none.

Expected Wins

After pushing their expected wins to 77 after Tuesday’s game, the loss on Wednesday dropped Houston back to 76 expected wins and leaves them projected for third place in a horrid AL West, 7 games behind the Mariners.

June wRC+

Yordan continued to rake in June, with assists from Pena, Paredes, Trammell, and Delgado, while Altuve and Walker struggled.

The team finished with a 100 wRC+ for June with a .237/.309/.413 slash and has scored 126 runs in 27 games (4.7 runs per game).

This is a power-laden team with 37 home runs in June (1.37 per game) and 116 on the season (1.30 per game for the season), which puts them on pace for 211 home runs.

I currently project the team to 194 home runs.

Updated Projections

Each game, moving forward, will push it 0.6% closer to the actual 2026 results.

Blubaugh has been invaluable as a long man.

The team has an ERA of 4.33 in June, with starters at 5.76 (xERA much better at 4.26) and the bullpen at 2.57.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Arrighetti is struggling; Teng was optioned, shocked that the team is 7-5 with Imai starting.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Quality Starts

There has definitely been improvement in the rotation, but will it be enough? At the current pace, the Astros will finish with 46 quality starts, which is way below the three-season average.

The 84% win percentage in quality starts is likely unsustainable, so you need as many as possible.

Game Scores

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in an easier-to-understand format.

So, I’ve converted the scores into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

Win Shares

Add all these together, and you get a net of 43, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Yordan is running away with this, and over the All-Star Break, I plan on doing some type of league-wide comparison to see where he stacks up in the MVP race.

MLB Expected Wins

The data below is through July 1.

Thanks for reading!

Share

Leave a comment

Subscribe now

They only need one of three against the Twins to hit my 8-5 “minimum”, but at least two of three is obviously optimal.

Expected Wins

I’m projecting 76 wins for the Astros, 86 games in, but the AL West continues to be up for grabs.

June wRC+

A big home run from Walker on Sunday, improves his ugly numbers and the same goes for Raynel Delgado.

The team has a 100 wRC+ for June with a .238/.310/.412 slash and has scored 116 runs in 25 games (4.6 runs per game).

This is a power-laden team with 33 home runs in June (1.32 per game) and 112 on the season (1.30 per game for the season), which puts them on pace for 211 home runs.

For what it’s worth, my numbers show 192 home runs, which is a significant variance (~9%).

Simply put, my numbers project Yordan to slow down in the second half (see projections below) as the heat and number of games take their toll.

Updated Projections

Each game, moving forward, will push it 0.6% closer to the actual 2026 results.

Not shown is the projected 130 hits for Altuve. If that comes to fruition, 3,000 is likely out of reach during his current contract.

Blubaugh has been invaluable as a long man.

The team has an ERA of 4.32 in June, with starters at 5.68 (xERA much better at 4.06) and the bullpen at 2.66.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Arrighetti is struggling; Teng was optioned.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Quality Starts

There has definitely been improvement in the rotation, but will it be enough? At the current pace, the Astros will finish with 47 quality starts, which is way below the three-season average.

The 84% win percentage in quality starts is likely unsustainable, so you need as many as possible.

Game Scores

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in an easier-to-understand format.

So, I’ve converted the scores into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

Win Shares

Add all these together, and you get a net of 42, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Pena makes a move.

MLB Expected Wins

The data below is through June 28.

Down to two one-hundred-win teams as June has claimed the Braves and Yankees.

Thanks for reading!

Share

Leave a comment

Subscribe now

Last week, I mentioned the need to go (at least) 8-5 in the following 13 games, and the Astros are off to a 3-2 start, meaning at the very least a 5-3 finish is needed.

Expected Wins

I’m projecting 75 wins for the Astros at the halfway point.

June wRC+

Several batters are riding the struggle bus, but most importantly, Christian Walker continues his slide.

Updated Projections

Halfway through the season means these projections are exactly 50% preseason projections and 50% 2026 results.

Each game, moving forward, will push it 0.6% closer to the actual 2026 results.

Total up the expected wins below, and you get 76 - exactly twice what their “pace” (38-43) is. I feel good about these projections as a result.

The difference between the projected number of 75 above and the 76 here is likely rounding.

Record by Starting Pitcher

On pace to get 18 wins from Arrighetti starts and 14 from Lambert starts.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Quality Starts

The starting pitching is killing any hopes of contending, as the last two days have shown.

MLB Expected Wins

The data below is through June 23.

Apologies for the shorter-than-typical post, but it’s been a hectic summer with more to come.

Thanks for reading!

Share

Leave a comment

Subscribe now