Not ideal, but certainly better than it looked Sunday afternoon.

Before we get to the expected wins, let’s take a look at what fangraphs.com says about a potential playoff run:

Projected Remaining Record: 29-29

Projected Final Record: 79-83

Win Division: 12.3%

Wild Card: 11.5%

Make Playoffs: 23.9%

That feels about right to me, and as we’ll see, better than what I am currently projecting.

Expected Wins

The Astros still can’t seem to get past 77 expected wins, which they have now reached 5 times since June 30, only to fall back.

After the sweep of the Marlins, they once again sit at 77, with trips to Chicago and Anaheim on tap.

Hopefully, this post-All-Star Break breakout clarifies recency a bit.

The Astros are within 6 xWins of the AL West lead.

July wRC+

Alvarez, Pena and Paredes continue to lead the offense, while Walker and Smith have struggled mightily.

Updated Projections

My son and I were in the house for Lucas Spence’s debut, and based on a whole two games in person and four on TV, my takeaway is he is very similar to Jake - a good fielder (maybe half a notch below Jake) and a mediocre bat (maybe half a notch above Jake, but too early to tell).

The team has a 4.69 ERA in July, with the starters at 5.78 and the bullpen at 3.43.

The starters have been better over these last 6 days (two Lambert starts, one for other rotation members) - 3.62.

The bats are slashing .241/.310/.429 with 26 HR and 76 runs in 16 July games (4.75 R/G).

Record by Starting Pitcher

How does Astros Ace Peter Lambert sound?

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"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Quality Starts

The number of quality starts has edged up, but as I feared, the winning percentage is regressing.

On pace for 48 after 70 last season.

Game Scores

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in an easier-to-understand format.

So, I’ve converted the scores into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

Win Shares

Let me know what you think of the new format. I’m still messing around with it, hoping to make it easier to read.

Yordan continues to dominate, but it’s been a nice season to date for Isaac, and Pena is on a tear.

MLB Expected Wins

I’ll be back (probably) next Friday.

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My son and I will be there on Friday and Saturday.

Before we get to the expected wins, let’s take a look at what fangraphs.com says about a potential playoff run:

Projected Remaining Record: 32-32

Projected Final Record: 79-83

Win Division: 10.0%

Wild Card: 15.3%

Make Playoffs: 25.2%

That feels about right to me, and as we’ll see, better than what I am currently projecting.

Expected Wins

The Astros can’t seem to get past 77 expected wins, which they reached 4 times since June 30, only to fall back.

They currently sit at 76, which would place them 6 games behind the projected Division winner, the Seattle Mariners.

July wRC+

Reorganized to hopefully make it easier to read.

Updated Projections

Houston optioned Santa right before the break without a corresponding move that I have seen, so they are sitting at 12 pitchers as I type.

They will most certainly make a move for a 13th prior to Friday’s game.

The team has a 5.65 ERA in July, with the starters at 7.36 and the bullpen at 3.86, which wasn’t helped by a rough couple of outings by Brian King in the Rangers series.

The bats are slashing .242/.310/.438 with 17 HR and 52 runs in 10 July games.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Peter Lambert is the scheduled starter on Friday for Houston.

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"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Quality Starts

Not enough.

On pace for 46 after 70 last season.

Game Scores

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in an easier-to-understand format.

So, I’ve converted the scores into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

I’ve changed this chart, hoping to improve it.

Win Shares

Let me know what you think of the new format. I’m still messing around with it, hoping to make it easier to read.

Yordan continues to dominate, but nice season to date by Isaac.

MLB Expected Wins

I likely won’t have another post until next Friday.

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It’s no secret that Jose Altuve has declined in recent years, and now we’re at the point where the Astros leader sits at the All-Star Break with a .232 batting average (.228 xBA, 21st percentile).

I analyzed his descent last fall, and this is a follow-up to see what, if anything, has changed, for better or worse, in 2026.

One remarkable thing about Altuve’s career has stayed constant, though it is closer to being over than ever: With the exception of the pandemic season of 2020, Altuve has had a higher batting average than expected batting average every single year since it became a thing.

It’s precariously close this season, as close as it’s ever been, and could still flip, but at least for now it remains one of the few constants.

Checking in on Breaking Balls

Back then, I wrote that the biggest change in 2025 was that Altuve struggled against breaking balls, defined as curves, sliders, sweepers, slurves, and knuckleballs.

Overall, Altuve has improved against breaking balls this season, hitting .232 and slugging .453 on those pitches in 2026, including 6 home runs in 95 at-bats, after hitting just 6 in 229 at-bats in 2025.

That said, his xBA against breaking balls this season is a horrendous .189, so there is room for regression.

Different Season, Different Pitch

I’ve seen online chatter that Altuve still mashes the fastball, and while that’s true from time to time (.252 average, .411 slug, 5 HR in 163 AB), it’s not like last season when he hit .310 and slugged .555 on fastballs (18 HR in 281 AB).

The fact is, he has regressed on the fastballs as a whole, which include the 4-Seam, Sinker, and Cutter varieties.

Digging in, it’s the sinker that seems to be the biggest culprit this season, as he’s gone from hitting .296 with a .439 slugging percentage to .217 and .283 on the pitch, while the run value has gone from 0 in 2025 to -4 through 98 games in 2026.

When he hits it, he’s hitting it harder more often (44% hard hit), but his whiff% and K% have increased on the pitch - it’s literally hit or miss.

And pitchers aren’t dumb: After seeing four-seam fastballs more than any other pitch for every year for as long as they’ve been tracked, this season Altuve is seeing more sinkers than any other pitch.

Some Peripheral Information

Father Time gets us all eventually, but it often catches up with professional athletes in public.

Altuve still has pop when he connects, but he’s always been up and down on his exit velo.

For example, some of his lowest exit velo seasons were in 2017 and 2022, years when the Astros won the World Series.

But this only tracks when there is an exit velo, and with his whiff% and K% increases, 2026 has seen fewer of those.

I don’t know enough about bat speed to intelligently comment, but it’s obviously slowing down, and this looks more linear than the exit velo variance.

Over the last three seasons, it’s down 1.8 MPH.

Conclusion

There’s no calculation I could make to put the proper value on Jose Altuve’s worth to the Houston Astros.

Some things just aren’t measurable.

Baseball, though, is a game of measurables.

It’s OK to admit that Altuve isn’t what he once was, but is still a valuable member of the team and the Astros current best option at second base.

How much longer that remains true is the question.

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But Yordan Alvarez is putting up a season for the ages with 64 games left in the Astros regular season, and it’s clear to me that he is the American League MVP at this point of the season.

Let me explain.

The Numbers

Yordan leads in every category, some by miles, except for stolen bases and fWAR.

This also shows how much impact defense has on the fAR metric, especially for an elite shortstop.

The wonders of AI brought me this estimate:

There’s really no other explanation for why Witt, as good as he is, has more fWAR than Yordan and you could argue it’s remarkable that it’s as close as it is, with Alvarez having only played 120 innings in the field this season.

I’ve been fairly critical of the fWAR metric over the years and this is why I came up with Win Shares.

But the criticism is not because of the way fWAR accounts for defense - defense is important - but rather the metric doesn’t measure what the name says it measures.

So I decided to use it to come up with a metric that does measure what the name says - Win Shares.

The Win Shares Methodology

It’s really quite simple.

Note: I sum each individual player’s fWAR on a team and not the team total, because rounding is a thing on fangraphs.com.

The Results

Yordan has been worth 2.4 more wins than Witt, Jr., and 3.0 more wins than Kurtz.

Problems with Win Shares

As you can tell by the chart above, there’s a tendency for players on teams with fewer wins to be favored by this formula. Those teams generally have lower team fWAR overall, so the denominator is smaller.

On the flip side, by nature of being really good on a “not so great” team, these players are inherently carrying more of the load, even though that load is smaller, in general.

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For example, while both are extremely valuable, I’d argue that Yordan is more valuable to the Astros than Ben Rice is to the Yankees.

The Yankees may survive a Rice injury, as they are (kind of) doing with Judge out right now.

The Astros would be less likely to survive a Yordan injury.

Summary

This is a fun tool, but not the be-all and end-all, and I recognize it has limitations.

Any ideas for improving it are welcome.

In fact, if I were voting, it would be Yordan, then Caminero, then Witt, Jr.

Instead of a definitive answer, think of it as one more box checked. Yordan leads in most of the significant categories AND he adds more wins to his team than any other player by this metric.

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There are two posts that I have wanted to do for some time, but haven’t had the time that I hope to get to during the break: 1) An update on this story from October on Jose Altuve’s struggles with breaking balls, and 2) Comparing Yordan and the rest of the AL via Win Shares as the MVP discussion grows.

The day-to-day projections continue to interest my numbers-loving brain, but there are other angles I’d like to attack during the post-All-Star Game season, too.

These are the first two.

Expected Wins

Houston has been as high as 77 expected wins recently, but no hire and Wednesday’s depressing loss drops it back to 76.

That means I’m projecting a 30-37 finish and a 76-86 record.

Fangraphs is projecting 4 more wins, a 33-34 post-All-Star game record, and a 79-83 finish.

Fangraphs gives the Astros a 10.6% chance of winning the AL West, a 20.8% chance of getting a Wild Card, and a 31.4% chance of making the playoffs.

Seems optimistic to me, someone who is typically optimistic isn’t feeling that way at the moment.

July wRC+

We are about a third of the way through the month calendar-wise, but more like halfway through it game-wise due to the 4-day break (from games).

The team has a 100 wRC+ for June with a .236/.305/.410 slash and has scored 35 runs in 7 games (5.0 runs per game).

This is a power-laden team with 10 home runs in July (1.43 per game) and 126 on the season (1.33 per game), putting them on pace for 215 home runs.

I currently project the team to 189 home runs.

My number seems low, but one injury could change that.

Updated Projections

Each game, moving forward, will push it 0.6% closer to the actual 2026 results.

The team has an ERA of 5.61 in June, with starters at 9.00 and the bullpen at 2.53.

Media reports that a left-handed hitting outfielder is the main target for Dana Brown, but you could acquire 3 of those and still not win with the current rotation.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Arrighetti is struggling and regressing hard after walking 6 on Wednesday.

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"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

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Quality Starts

Perhaps help is coming, but I’ll die on this hill: You are not making the playoffs with 27.4% quality starts.

The 81% win percentage in quality starts is likely unsustainable, so you need as many as possible.

Game Scores

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in an easier-to-understand format.

So, I’ve converted the scores into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

Lots of red on this chart.

Win Shares

Add all these together, and you get a net of 46, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Yordan is running away with this, but dropped a bit from last time after a mediocre week.

MLB Expected Wins

The data below is through July 9.

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In an all-too-familiar performance, Imai lasted just an inning and a third and required more yeoman’s work from A.J. Blubaugh, who has pitched more innings than Imai this season, despite Imai starting 12 games and Blubaugh starting none.

Expected Wins

After pushing their expected wins to 77 after Tuesday’s game, the loss on Wednesday dropped Houston back to 76 expected wins and leaves them projected for third place in a horrid AL West, 7 games behind the Mariners.

June wRC+

Yordan continued to rake in June, with assists from Pena, Paredes, Trammell, and Delgado, while Altuve and Walker struggled.

The team finished with a 100 wRC+ for June with a .237/.309/.413 slash and has scored 126 runs in 27 games (4.7 runs per game).

This is a power-laden team with 37 home runs in June (1.37 per game) and 116 on the season (1.30 per game for the season), which puts them on pace for 211 home runs.

I currently project the team to 194 home runs.

Updated Projections

Each game, moving forward, will push it 0.6% closer to the actual 2026 results.

Blubaugh has been invaluable as a long man.

The team has an ERA of 4.33 in June, with starters at 5.76 (xERA much better at 4.26) and the bullpen at 2.57.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Arrighetti is struggling; Teng was optioned, shocked that the team is 7-5 with Imai starting.

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"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

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Quality Starts

There has definitely been improvement in the rotation, but will it be enough? At the current pace, the Astros will finish with 46 quality starts, which is way below the three-season average.

The 84% win percentage in quality starts is likely unsustainable, so you need as many as possible.

Game Scores

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in an easier-to-understand format.

So, I’ve converted the scores into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

Win Shares

Add all these together, and you get a net of 43, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Yordan is running away with this, and over the All-Star Break, I plan on doing some type of league-wide comparison to see where he stacks up in the MVP race.

MLB Expected Wins

The data below is through July 1.

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They only need one of three against the Twins to hit my 8-5 “minimum”, but at least two of three is obviously optimal.

Expected Wins

I’m projecting 76 wins for the Astros, 86 games in, but the AL West continues to be up for grabs.

June wRC+

A big home run from Walker on Sunday, improves his ugly numbers and the same goes for Raynel Delgado.

The team has a 100 wRC+ for June with a .238/.310/.412 slash and has scored 116 runs in 25 games (4.6 runs per game).

This is a power-laden team with 33 home runs in June (1.32 per game) and 112 on the season (1.30 per game for the season), which puts them on pace for 211 home runs.

For what it’s worth, my numbers show 192 home runs, which is a significant variance (~9%).

Simply put, my numbers project Yordan to slow down in the second half (see projections below) as the heat and number of games take their toll.

Updated Projections

Each game, moving forward, will push it 0.6% closer to the actual 2026 results.

Not shown is the projected 130 hits for Altuve. If that comes to fruition, 3,000 is likely out of reach during his current contract.

Blubaugh has been invaluable as a long man.

The team has an ERA of 4.32 in June, with starters at 5.68 (xERA much better at 4.06) and the bullpen at 2.66.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Arrighetti is struggling; Teng was optioned.

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"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Quality Starts

There has definitely been improvement in the rotation, but will it be enough? At the current pace, the Astros will finish with 47 quality starts, which is way below the three-season average.

The 84% win percentage in quality starts is likely unsustainable, so you need as many as possible.

Game Scores

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in an easier-to-understand format.

So, I’ve converted the scores into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

Win Shares

Add all these together, and you get a net of 42, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Pena makes a move.

MLB Expected Wins

The data below is through June 28.

Down to two one-hundred-win teams as June has claimed the Braves and Yankees.

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Last week, I mentioned the need to go (at least) 8-5 in the following 13 games, and the Astros are off to a 3-2 start, meaning at the very least a 5-3 finish is needed.

Expected Wins

I’m projecting 75 wins for the Astros at the halfway point.

June wRC+

Several batters are riding the struggle bus, but most importantly, Christian Walker continues his slide.

Updated Projections

Halfway through the season means these projections are exactly 50% preseason projections and 50% 2026 results.

Each game, moving forward, will push it 0.6% closer to the actual 2026 results.

Total up the expected wins below, and you get 76 - exactly twice what their “pace” (38-43) is. I feel good about these projections as a result.

The difference between the projected number of 75 above and the 76 here is likely rounding.

Record by Starting Pitcher

On pace to get 18 wins from Arrighetti starts and 14 from Lambert starts.

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"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

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Quality Starts

The starting pitching is killing any hopes of contending, as the last two days have shown.

MLB Expected Wins

The data below is through June 23.

Apologies for the shorter-than-typical post, but it’s been a hectic summer with more to come.

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As I mentioned last time, I personally feel like they needed 8-5 in this thirteen-game stretch to feel like a contender, and a 2-1 start keeps that within reach.

A 7-game roadie starts tonight in Toronto, the first of three in Canada, followed by 4 in Detroit and then three back at Daikin against the Twins.

It’s certainly doable, but the question is, will they?

Expected Wins

After Friday’s game, the Astros sat at 75 expected wins, a total that they haven’t exceeded since April 11.

Saturday’s 8-1 loss knocked them down a peg, and Sunday’s 2-1 victory was enough to get them back to 75.

June wRC+

Walker continues to struggle.

Updated Projections

The team is 10-8 in June with a 4.58 ERA and 4.11 FIP, including 5.91 ERA for the starters and 2.84 for the bullpen.

Meanwhile, the bats slashed .242/.314/.425, with 24 home runs and scored 85 runs (4.7 per game).

Great work by the bullpen over the weekend and a really good start by Teng Sunday.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Some regression from Arrighetti, not totally unexpected.

Quality Starts

Twenty-two quality starts on the season, 18 wins. This game can be really simple at times.

Houston is on pace for 45 quality starts on the season, after averaging 71 over the last three seasons.

Not a recipe for making the postseason.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Game Scores

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in an easier-to-understand format.

So, I’ve converted the scores into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get a net of 37, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

A slight step back for Yordan and Arrighetti.

MLB Expected Wins

The data below is through June 21.

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It’s just the next progression/regression in an up-and-down season, where the Astros can’t quite get over the hump, but also can’t fall out of it due to the mediocrity of the American League.

Is this 4-2 week the start of a sustained good stretch?

Who knows?

It feels like this next 13-game stretch, ending July 1, is important. The Astros host Cleveland (3), travel to Toronto (3) and Detroit (4), before hosting the Twins (3).

Of those teams, only the Guardians have a winning record, and they will be without Jose Ramirez, which seems important.

Houston will be 89 games in after this stretch and the difference between contending and “also ran” feels closer than ever to being determined.

8-5 keeps hope alive. I’d argue 7-6 or 6-7 keeps the team in purgatory and anything worse is a sign and not a good one.

Expected Wins

That 4-2 stretch and the resulting 3 run scoring deficit (29-32) leaves the expected wins at 74, a two-win increase over last week at this time.

wRC+ by Month (selected players)

Interesting chart, perhaps only to me. The steadiness of Yordan Alvarez (220 for March/April is hidden behind the 218 of June), the steady decline of Christian Walker, and the implosion of Christian Vazquez (expected to a degree) all stand out.

Updated Projections

The team is 8-7 in June with a 4.70 ERA and 4.38 FIP, including 6.14 ERA for the starters and 2.97 for the bullpen.

Meanwhile, the bats slashed .240/.318/.425, with 20 home runs and scored 73 runs (4.9 per game).

Hader’s recovery has strengthened the bullpen.

Record by Starting Pitcher

An Arrighetti loss, but the return of Hunter Brown fuels hope.

Quality Starts

Twenty quality starts on the season, 16 wins. This game can be really simple at times.

Houston is on pace for 42 quality starts on the season, after averaging 71 over the last three seasons.

Not a recipe for making the postseason.

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"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

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Game Scores

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in an easier-to-understand format.

So, I’ve converted the scores into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get a net of 35, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Yordan is dominating so much that the scale is losing its visual effect.

According to this measure, he has earned 30% of the Astros’ wins on his own.

With one start, Brown jumps from 1.4 to 2.1.

Fantastic job by Arrighetti and Lambert.

MLB Expected Wins

The data below is through June 17.

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Editor’s Note: Due to my travel schedule over the next week, updates may be sporadic and may fall outside the typical schedule.

NEXT UPDATE: June 19

In a disappointing turn of events in a disappointing season, the Astros lost two of three in Anaheim, dropping them to 31-39.

Scoring 8 runs over 3 games is not a recipe for success, especially when you gave up 17.

Consequently, the expected wins drops to 72.

Worst in MLB

My son and I were talking about the walks and how the ABS system has hurt some pitching staff more than others. While I’m hesitant to draw sweeping conclusions from a single metric, the chart below shows that the Astros’ BB/9 has increased the most of any MLB team from 2025 to 2026.

Data is through games of June 10.

Updated Projections

The team is 4-5 in June with a 4.44 ERA and 4.65 FIP, including 5.91 ERA for the starters and 2.55 for the bullpen.

Meanwhile, the bats slashed .233/.314/.397, with 9 home runs and scoring 44 runs (4.9per game).

Walker has cooled and Altuve coming off the IL has yet to get going.

As noted above, the bullpen has been better as a whole.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Arrighetti continues to lead the way, even when not at his best.

Quality Starts

No quality starts since the last update and with 19 quality starts after 70 games, Houston is on pace for 44 quality starts on the season, after averaging 71 over the last three seasons.

That is not a recipe for making the postseason.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Game Scores

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in an easier-to-understand format.

So, I’ve converted the scores into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get a net of 31, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

It’s Yordan’s world, and it’s not close.

Hunter Brown has made two starts and he is fourth on this list after 67 games. Incredible.

MLB Expected Wins

The data below is through June 10.

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Editor’s Note: Due to my travel schedule over the next week, updates may be sporadic and may fall outside the typical schedule.

The Astros won the first two games against the A’s and my son and I were at both games.

Over the three games, Houston outscored the A’s 18-8, after a 13-run explosion on Saturday, and currently project to 74 wins.

Updated Projections

The team is 3-3 in June with a 4.83 ERA and 4.83 FIP, including 6.14 ERA for the starters and 3.28 for the bullpen.

Meanwhile, the bats slashed .272/.344/.455, with 7 home runs and scoring 36 runs (6.0 per game).

The bullpen has improved a lot, at least ERA-wise, with De Los Santos (3 appearances), Hader (2), Okert (3) and King (2), all rocking 0.00 ERAs for June in a combined 10 appearances.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Burrows continues to be a drag.

Quality Starts

No quality starts since the last update and with 17 quality starts after 67 games, Houston is on pace for 41 quality starts on the season, after averaging 71 over the last three seasons.

That is not a recipe for making the post season.

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"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Game Scores

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in an easier-to-understand format.

So, I’ve converted the scores into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get a net of 30, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

It’s Yordan’s world, and it’s not close.

If you’re calculating at home, Yordan has been worth 31.3% of the Astros wins in 2026.

Hunter Brown has made two starts and he is fourth on this list after 67 games. Incredible.

MLB Expected Wins

The data below is through June 7.

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Editor’s Note: Due to my travel schedule over the next three weeks, updates may be sporadic and may fall outside the typical schedule. I will be at the Astros games this coming Friday and Saturday against the A’s. The next update will be next week sometime.

As June dawns, the Astros have played 61 games, compiling a record of 27-34, and are in fourth place in the AL West, 4.5 games behind the Mariners.

Snatching a loss from the jaws of victory on Friday, in essence, cost the Astros the series and sapped the momentum Houston had built over the previous 10 or so days.

Despite that, the Astros have improved to an expected 73 wins since our last chat and appear to be getting healthier.

Updated Projections

Houston finished May with a 15-14 record and a 3.66 ERA, including an ERA of 3.93 for the starters and 3.27 for the bullpen.

Meanwhile, the bats slashed .219/.287/.376, smashing 39 home runs and scoring 101 runs (3.48 per game).

Record by Starting Pitcher

Spencer Arrighetti and it’s not close.

Quality Starts

The continued uptick in quality starts is encouraging, but still a long way to go. Getting Brown back would obviously help.

With 17 quality starts after 61 games, Houston is on pace for 45 quality starts on the season, after averaging 71 over the last three seasons.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Game Scores

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.

So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get a net of 27, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Yordan continues to lap the field, but Walker has been impressive, too.

I also have to give Cam Smith credit here, after pointing out how bad he was offensively over the first third of the season.

Abreu has been an abomination, and should not be in competitive games as he was Friday night. I would rather see Alimber Santa or anyone else in there.

Something Weird

This may surprise you, but Cam Smith has the fastest bat speed on the Astros at 77.3, while Zach Cole is second at 76.3, and Yordan Alvarez is coming in third (76.0).

That’s weird enough, but Cam’s average exit velo is “only” 88.4 MPH, while Cole’s is 92.5 and Yordan’s is 94.7.

That means the ratio for Cam is 1.14 (88.4/77.3), while Cole’s is 1.21 and Yordan’s is 1.24.

That’s 6% lower than Cole and 8% lower than Alvarez.

The league average is 1.24, and I would think the higher, the better.

Not even sure if that’s a thing, but it’s curious that the guy with the hardest swing has the 8th-highest exit velocity on the team, below guys like Loperfido, Shewmake and Matthews.

For whatever it’s worth, I looked back at 2025, and Cam was fifth in bat speed and, ummm, 17th in exit velocity on the team and his ratio was 1.17.

What does it mean? I don’t know. Maybe nothing. Maybe he’s due for positive regression, but I’ll keep an eye on it periodically to see if it remains an outlier.

Corpus

Watched Corpus play in San Antonio Friday night and it was horrendous. The pitching staff walked 12 (including at least two with the bases loaded), hit 2 and threw a wild pitch, while the offense had 2 hits.

They were shut out on five hits Saturday, before finally scoring 6 in a Sunday win.

I’m no scout, and it was 1 game in a long season, but it was not encouraging.

I understand their best offensive prospects are in Asheville, but that’s my point - they are a long way from MLB.

MLB Expected Wins

The data below is through May 31.

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Editor’s Note: Due to my travel schedule over the next three weeks, updates may be sporadic and may fall outside the typical schedule.

This will be brief. I’m headed out the door to San Antonio to watch the Hooks, and hopefully see some Astros prospects.

We are now 35.8% of the way through the season, the Astros stand in third place, percentage points ahead of Texas, and only 2.5 games back of the Mariners in the AL West

The 3-1 series win and resulting run differential improved the Astros expected wins by 2 games.

Updated Projections

In the 4 games in Arlington, the team slashed .235/.316/.485, but hit 10 HRs and recorded a 124 wRC+. Meanwhile, the arms compiled a 3.60 ERA, including 4.32 for the starters (heavily negatively influenced by Alexander’s start) and 1.80 for the bullpen.

Yordan recorded at 368 wRC+ in Arlington, with Pena coming in at 228 and Smith at 135.

Record by Starting Pitcher

7-1 when Arrighetti starts.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Quality Starts

The Astros are 14-2 when they get a quality start and 12-30 when they don’t.

Hopefully, I can find time for a longer post on Monday.

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Editor’s Note: Due to my travel schedule over the next three weeks, updates may be sporadic and may fall outside the typical schedule.

Exactly one-third of the way through the season, the Astros stand in fourth place, yet only 4.5 games back of the Athletics in the AL West and are coming off a three-game sweep in Chicago of the Cubs.

Despite outscoring Chicago 15-7 my formula projects the team to 68 wins, one less than their pace of 69.

The reason for this is their run differential (233-281).

Updated Projections

The Astros have gone 8-8 over the last 16 games, with a 77 wRC+ in that span, which was 25th in the league, while scoring just 48 runs for an average of 3.0 runs per game, while slashing .208/.276/.348.

The pitching staff was improved during the same timeframe: 3.64 ERA, including 3.76 for the starters and 3.44 for the bullpen.

Record by Starting Pitcher

6-1 when Arrighetti starts.

Quality Starts

A slight tick up in quality starts, but still a long way to go. Getting Brown back would obviously help.

With 13 quality starts after 54 games, Houston is on pace for 39 quality starts on the season, after averaging 71 over the last three seasons.

Not enough given their offensive struggles.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Game Scores

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.

So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get a net of 23, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Yordan continues to pace the field, with Walker making a recent move.

MLB Expected Wins

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51 games in the bats have gone silent (or are injured) and the arms a tad better, but still putrid.

Welcome to the 2026 Houston Astros.

But over the long term, run prevention is an important thing and turning a potential 2-0 loss into an 8-0 loss tells you something about your club and it’s not good.

Updated Projections

The Astros have gone 5-8 over the last 13 games, rolling along with a 67 wRC+ in that span, which was 28th in the league, while scoring just 33 runs for an average of 2.5 runs per game, while slashing .200/.267/.326.

The pitching staff was improved during the same timeframe: 3.95 ERA, including 4.21 for the starters and 3.48 for the bullpen.

Record by Starting Pitcher

The Astros drop to 2-8 in Mike Burrows starts.

Quality Starts

Two quality starts last week is a slight improvement, but the Astros are on pace for 36 quality starts, just over half of the number they had last season.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Game Scores

Great job by Alexander in his first of the season.

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.

So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get a net of 19, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Yordan continues to pace the field, with Walker also playing well.

Both Correa and Altuve on the IL is depressing.

Astros Expected Wins

1-2 against the Twins, but outscored 11-6.

AL West Expected Wins

Coming dangerously close to projecting 100 losses.

MLB Expected Wins

This data does NOT include the 7 Thursday games.

Thanks for reading!

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But over the long term, run prevention is an important thing and turning a potential 2-0 loss into an 8-0 loss tells you something about your club and it’s not good.

Updated Projections

We are now 29.6% of the way through the season, and the team has a 109 wRC+ (5th) and 5.43 ERA (30th).

The wRC+ has lagged since we last spoke (71, 27th in the league), while the ERA has improved slightly.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Arrighetti continues to be the leader and Burrows continues to struggle.

Quality Starts

Two quality starts last week is a slight improvement, but the Astros are on pace for 36 quality starts, just over half of the number they had last season.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Game Scores

Arrighetti overtakes Lambert.

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.

So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get a net of 19, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Yordan continues to pace the field, with Walker also playing well.

Both Correa and Altuve on the IL is depressing.

Astros Expected Wins

A 3-4 week for Houston, but outscored 33-16. Yikes.

AL West Expected Wins

Despite losing an expected win since this time last week, they are now projected for fourth, because the Angels have been worse.

MLB Expected Wins

Not sure if there’ll be another post this week or not, but if not, next Monday for sure.

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Ahead are the Mariners who have only 19 wins, with four of those coming at the Astros expense.

Yikes.

The Astros have a 16-25 record and are tied with the Angels for fourth/fifth place in the AL West, 5.5 games behind the Athletics.

Updated Projections

We are now 25.3% of the way through the season, and the team has a 113 wRC+ (5th) and 5.57 ERA (30th).

Record by Starting Pitcher

Arrighetti leading the way and it’s not close.

Quality Starts

Fantastic start by Burrows. Let’s hope that’s repeatable.

As I mentioned last time, teams win about 70% of the time they get a quality start across the league.

It’s not rocket science, especially when a team can score as this one does.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Game Scores

Lambert leads the active pitchers, with Arrighetti not to far behind.

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.

So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get a net of 16, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Yordan adds to his lead while Walker takes a step back.

That Correa injury is depressing.

Astros Expected Wins

1-2, but outscored the Reds 11-8.

AL West Expected Wins

The good news is the AL West is so mediocre that they are not out of it.

MLB Expected Wins

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The Astros have a 15-23 record and are tied with the Angels for fourth/fifth place in the AL West, 4.0 games behind the Athletics.

Updated Projections

We are now 23.5% of the way through the season, and the team has a 115 wRC+ (5th) and 5.82 ERA (30th).

Record by Starting Pitcher

Arrighetti leading the way and it’s not close.

Quality Starts

Fantastic outing by Lambert, outdueling Ohtani, but the team is running at about half of last season’s quality start %.

As I mentioned last time, teams win about 70% of the time they get a quality start across the league.

It’s not rocket science, especially when a team can score as this one does.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Game Scores

Lambert nudges out Arrighetti for active leader role.

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.

So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get a net of 15, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Yordan continues to lead, but Christian Walker gaining.

That Correa injury is depressing.

Lambert takes the pitcher lead.

Astros Expected Wins

1-2 and outscored Boston 21-7 by the Dodgers and 28-17 in the last 6 games, that’s why they’ve lost 4 expected wins in the last 6 games, despite going 3-3.

AL West Expected Wins

The good news is the AL West is so mediocre that they are not out of it.

MLB Expected Wins

Thanks for reading!

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They all count the same at the end of the season.

The Astros have a 14-21 record, are out of the AL West cellar, and trail the A’s by 4.5 games.

Updated Projections

We are now 21.6% of the way through the season and the team has a 119 wRC+ (4th) and 5.75 ERA (30th).

Record by Starting Pitcher

Another good, if inefficient, start by Arrighetti.

Quality Starts

For the first time, the Astros lost a start when they got a quality start.

As I mentioned last time, teams win about 70% of the time they get a quality start across the league.

It’s not rocket science, especially when a team can score as this one does.

Front Row & Backstage

"The best music history writing online!" It's rock, records, and radio, as we go behind the scenes of my years in FM rock radio and the record biz in the '70s & '80s!

By Brad Kyle

Game Scores

Arrighetti leads the active starters, but Lambert has been solid.

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.

So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get a net of 14, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Yordan continues to lead, but he took a step back in Boston with Christian Walker gaining 0.8 wins over that series.

The catchers are interesting to compare.

The pitchers are finally positive as a group (0.2 fWAR = 0.1 win shares).

Astros Expected Wins

2-1 and outscored Boston 10-7.

AL West Expected Wins

While the Astros are officially out of the cellar, my projections still show them tied for last.

The good news is the AL West is so mediocre that they are not out of it.

MLB Expected Wins

Thanks for reading!

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