<![CDATA[Crawford Street Journal: MLB Projected Standings]]>https://www.crawfordstreetjournal.com/s/mlb-projected-standingshttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5cTk!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf151fcd-5bf2-4c5a-80db-f55aa2469d6d_500x500.pngCrawford Street Journal: MLB Projected Standingshttps://www.crawfordstreetjournal.com/s/mlb-projected-standingsSubstackTue, 07 Apr 2026 03:30:08 GMT<![CDATA[Projected Standings - July 17, 2025]]>https://www.crawfordstreetjournal.com/p/projected-standings-july-17-2025https://www.crawfordstreetjournal.com/p/projected-standings-july-17-2025Thu, 17 Jul 2025 13:54:52 GMT

It wasn’t that long ago that we had multiple 100-win projections, including totals of 106 and 104.

We mentioned those numbers would likely shrink as the summer wore on and injuries and fatigue mounted.

That’s been the case as there are currently 0 teams on a 100-win trajectory.

The first three teams listed for each league are projected division winners by both me and by Fangraphs.

I’ve included the % FG gives for each to win their division.

The next three have playoff odds in parentheses.

American: Tigers (96.6%), Yankees (45.0%), Astros (73.9%), Blue Jays (83.8% to make playoffs), Red Sox (55.3% to make playoffs), Mariners (72.0% to make playoffs).

National: Cubs (63.5%), Dodgers (94.2%), Phillies (58.5%), Brewers (83.1% to make playoffs), Mets (85.0% to make playoffs), Padres (48.8% to make playoffs)/Giants (45.0% to make playoffs).

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]]><![CDATA[Projected Standings - July 3, 2025]]>https://www.crawfordstreetjournal.com/p/projected-standings-july-3-2025https://www.crawfordstreetjournal.com/p/projected-standings-july-3-2025Fri, 04 Jul 2025 13:59:56 GMT

The Dodgers are the only team projected to hit the 100-win mark with the Tigers right on their tail.

If the season ended after yesterday’s games, your playoffs would be:

American: Tigers, Yankees, Astros, Rays, Blue Jays, Mariners.

National: Dodgers, Cubs, Phillies, Mets, Brewers, Cardinals/Giants.

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]]><![CDATA[Projected Standings - July 1, 2025]]>https://www.crawfordstreetjournal.com/p/projected-standings-july-1-2025https://www.crawfordstreetjournal.com/p/projected-standings-july-1-2025Tue, 01 Jul 2025 13:27:39 GMT

While a couple of teams are close, the only team currently projected over 100 wins are the Tigers.

If the season ended after yesterday’s games, your playoffs would be:

American: Tigers, Yankees, Astros, Rays, Blue Jays, Mariners.

National: Dodgers, Cubs, Phillies, Brewers, Mets, Cardinals.

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]]><![CDATA[Projected Standings - June 17, 2025]]>https://www.crawfordstreetjournal.com/p/projected-standings-june-17-2025https://www.crawfordstreetjournal.com/p/projected-standings-june-17-2025Wed, 18 Jun 2025 15:30:43 GMT

The Cubs project to 102 wins, but others dip below triple digits.

If the season ended after yesterday’s games, your playoffs would be:

American: Tigers, Yankees, Astros, Rays, Rangers and Red Sox/Blue Jays/Mariners.

National: Cubs, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Phillies, Reds.

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]]><![CDATA[Projected Standings - June 15, 2025]]>https://www.crawfordstreetjournal.com/p/projected-standings-june-15-2025https://www.crawfordstreetjournal.com/p/projected-standings-june-15-2025Mon, 16 Jun 2025 14:02:45 GMT

The Cubs take the top spot by a game over the Yankees and Tigers.

If the season ended after yesterday’s games, your playoffs would be:

American: Yankees, Tigers, Astros, Rays, Rangers and Red Sox.

National: Cubs, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Phillies, Padres.

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]]><![CDATA[Projected Standings - June 13, 2025]]>https://www.crawfordstreetjournal.com/p/projected-standings-june-13-2025https://www.crawfordstreetjournal.com/p/projected-standings-june-13-2025Fri, 13 Jun 2025 13:17:45 GMT

The New York Mets overtake the Tigers, and the Yankees nudge ahead of the Tigers, too.

If the season ended after yesterday’s games, your playoffs would be:

American: Yankees, Tigers, Astros, Rays, Blue Jays, Twins.

National: Mets, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Padres, Phillies.

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]]><![CDATA[Projected Standings - June 10, 2025]]>https://www.crawfordstreetjournal.com/p/projected-standings-june-10-2025https://www.crawfordstreetjournal.com/p/projected-standings-june-10-2025Tue, 10 Jun 2025 15:37:57 GMT

The Detroit Tigers and the New York Mets are in a dead heat.

If the season ended after yesterday’s games, your playoffs would be:

American: Tigers, Yankees, Astros, Rays, Twins and Blue Jays.

National: Mets, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Giants and Padres/Phillies/Cardinals/Reds all at 88.

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]]><![CDATA[Projected Standings - June 5, 2025]]>https://www.crawfordstreetjournal.com/p/projected-standings-june-5-2025https://www.crawfordstreetjournal.com/p/projected-standings-june-5-2025Thu, 05 Jun 2025 14:25:50 GMT

The Detroit Tigers edge the Yankees.

Followed by the Cubs and Mets.

If the season ended after yesterday’s games, your playoffs would be:

American: Tigers, Yankees, Astros, Twins, Rays, Mariners.

National: Cubs, Mets, Dodgers, Phillies, Giants, Padres or Cardinals.

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]]><![CDATA[Projected Standings - June 4, 2025]]>https://www.crawfordstreetjournal.com/p/projected-standings-june-4-2025https://www.crawfordstreetjournal.com/p/projected-standings-june-4-2025Wed, 04 Jun 2025 12:37:55 GMT

The Detroit Tigers edge the Yankees.

Followed by the Cubs and Mets.

If the season ended after yesterday’s games, your playoffs would be:

American: Tigers, Yankees, Astros, Twins, Rays, Mariners.

National: Cubs, Mets, Dodgers, Phillies, Giants, Padres.

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]]><![CDATA[Projected Standings - June 3, 2025]]>https://www.crawfordstreetjournal.com/p/projected-standings-june-3-2025https://www.crawfordstreetjournal.com/p/projected-standings-june-3-2025Tue, 03 Jun 2025 14:25:33 GMT

The Detroit Tigers.

Followed by the Yankees, Cubs and Mets.

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]]><![CDATA[Projected Standings - May 22, 2025]]>https://www.crawfordstreetjournal.com/p/projected-standings-may-22-2025https://www.crawfordstreetjournal.com/p/projected-standings-may-22-2025Thu, 22 May 2025 18:26:52 GMT

Tigers and Yankees continue to roll.

Not expecting 5 teams to finish with 100 wins, but ironic that the NL West is the only division currently not projecting a 100-game winner.

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]]><![CDATA[Projected Standings - May 8, 2025]]>https://www.crawfordstreetjournal.com/p/projected-standings-may-8-2025https://www.crawfordstreetjournal.com/p/projected-standings-may-8-2025Thu, 08 May 2025 14:05:34 GMT

Games through May 7.

The Tigers have been the class of the American League and the Orioles the biggest disappointment.

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The Dodgers vault to the top of the tough NL West, with the Mets projecting the best record as of today.

The Rockies project to be worse than the 2024 White Sox and considering the Division they’re in, that’s a real possibility.

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]]><![CDATA[Projected Standings - May 3, 2025]]>https://www.crawfordstreetjournal.com/p/projected-standings-may-3-2025https://www.crawfordstreetjournal.com/p/projected-standings-may-3-2025Sat, 03 May 2025 15:14:40 GMT

Looking at the info below you can see why I don’t publish these until May 1 at the earliest.

The Mets aren’t going to win 112 games, or the Tigers 108.

The takeaway is those and other teams like them have played really well so far.

It’s that simple.

With each passing game the actual record means more and more in the algorithm and the run differential less and less.

We’ll get there.

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]]><![CDATA[Projected Standings - May 2, 2025]]>https://www.crawfordstreetjournal.com/p/projected-standings-may-2-2025https://www.crawfordstreetjournal.com/p/projected-standings-may-2-2025Fri, 02 May 2025 12:28:17 GMT

No, I do not think 6 teams will win 100 games. The summer has a way of working these things out, as does injury and illness.

These projections, project finishes with how the teams have played to date.

In other words, if the Yankees continue to play the way they have so far this season, they would win 103 games.

The sample is around 18-20%. These will change. Often and in some cases by a lot.

This is what we have as May 2 dawns.

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