Few Astros pitchers cause as much division among fans as the electric arm of Bryan Abreu.
Some see Abreu as a terminator (11.9K and 6.5H/9IP), while others see him as an angina-inducing terror.
Abreu’s numbers are generally fantastic, as evidenced by ERAs of 1.94, 1.75 and 3.10 over the last three seasons and 2.75 over 247 career appearances.
At the same time, it’s how Abreu gets there that causes angst and consternation: 4.1 BB per nine innings pitched over his career.
Walks have been an issue for Astros pitchers and are magnified when you’re a) pitching with a lead in the 7th inning or later and b) facing an average of just 4.17 batters per outing, as Abreu did in 2024.
With the trade of Ryan Pressly to Chicago, it’s assumed Abreu will step into the setup role in 2025 and close when Josh Hader needs a day.
While most are familiar with the concept of “Holds” referenced in the graphic above, fewer are as familiar with the “Shutdown” metric from Fangraphs.
In short, this means 43 times Abreu accumulated at least 6% win probability in a game.
For Abreu, that’s 55% of his appearances, while averaging just over 4 batters faced per appearance.
He impacted games, even as the 7th inning guy.
Abreu is at least part of the inspiration for a couple of new stats I hope to track this season, generally looking at easy innings, retiring opponents in order and shutting teams down after the Astros score.
Mostly, the projections above are in line with those of Fangraphs, except Fangraphs projects a much higher ERA (3.10) and that’s not surprising given the jump in ERA last season and the new, higher-pressure role Abreu assumes this season.
In 2024, Abreu registered a 0.9 fWAR and 2.0 Win Shares, which are projected for slight increases in 2025.
Projected fWAR: 1.2
Projected Win Shares: 2.6
Further Reading: