2025 Projection: Christian Walker

The focus is on his bat, but improved defense at first could rejuvenate Astros infield defense

I struggle to take anything at all from Spring Training games, but a couple days ago I found myself watching the Astros take on the Mets as several Astros (and future Astros) made their spring debuts.

In his first at-bat, Christian Walker hit a ball off the center field wall for a double.

It was overshadowed by a pair of home runs by Cam Smith and in the big scheme of things means absolutely 0, but it somehow gave me confidence that the Walker signing will not be Jose Abreu Part Two.

Walker also adds top-level defense, including three consecutive Gold Gloves, to an infield that sorely needed addressing. Adding up all the anticipated moves and counter moves equals a better infield both at the plate and in the field.

As I like to say, “Walker/Paredes > Bregman/Singleton”.

That sounds great in theory, but now they need to go out and prove me correct.

Walker will also be counted on to replace some of the power lost in the Kyle Tucker trade.

Two pieces of information that give me some level of confidence that will happen are Walker’s bat speed, which stayed the same from 2023 to 2024 and is well above the MLB average, and his exit velo, which came in at the 82nd percentile.

Projecting 30 home runs for a 33-year-old first baseman can be perilous business, but here we are.

Steamer is even more bullish on Walker, going slightly lower on the slash line metrics, but coming in at 32 home runs and 96 RBI, so my projections are certainly within the realm of possibility.

As always, thanks for reading!

Projected fWAR: 3.1

Projected Win Shares: 6.7

If you’re counting at home the totals are 40.6 fWAR and 88.2 Win Shares, assuming the same efficiency as last season.

Injuries (such as Dubin) and other roster moves will affect the final projections, but I plan to post a final prediction on the AL West later in the spring.