2025 Projection: Jeremy Pena
Can Jeremy Pena reverse downward trends?
Now more than ever, the Astros need Jeremy Pena to return to his rookie form of 2022.
As the Astros won the World Series, Pena played Gold Glove level shortstop, slashed .253/.289/.426, hit 22 home runs and knocked in 63 runs.
While the subsequent two seasons have seen an increase in average, the slug numbers and home runs are way down and the defense is trending downward, to below average by the Outs Above Average metric.
Pena has been an average Major League shortstop - 98 wRC+, 0 Outs Above Average - over the last two seasons.
Pena was never elite offensively, despite the 22 home runs as a rookie, his wRC+ was just a couple ticks above average at 102, but the Astros could get away with it back then, whereas now more is needed.
We did a deep dive into Pena’s defense back in October, but the short version is his defense has declined the last two seasons.
I asked the question then and it’s more relevant now - was 2022 a mirage defensively?
It seems clear that Pena is average offensively and after three seasons, I wouldn’t expect a major shift one way or the other with the bat.
We have seen more defensively, though just not in the last two seasons.
Perhaps Tony Perezchica can bring the best out in Pena defensively, or at least bring something closer to 2022 and less like 2024.
Steamer projects similar average and OBP numbers, but is a little more bullish on the slug and RBI than I.
As always, thanks for reading!
Projected fWAR: 3.3
Projected Win Shares: 7.2
