2025 Projection: Josh Hader

Our memories are tricky things and Hader's 2024 season is a case in point

I’m not sure exactly what I expected from Josh Hader in his initial season with the Astros, but I came away mildly disappointed.

Maybe that’s a wild thing to say about someone who converted almost 90% of his save opportunities (34/38), had an opponent’s xBA and K% in the top 1% of the league and finished with a WHIP under 1.

In retrospect, my feelings are likely rooted in two things: The way Ryan Pressly was treated and the Astros historically horrid start with Hader being the losing pitcher in games 3 and 4 of that horrid start.

That and the long ball was a problem for Hader last season, giving up 12, the second most of his career and way out of line with 2022 and 2023.

That said, I shouldn’t lose sight of the forest for the trees. Overall Hader was good, allowing a .117 batting average on sliders and .192 on sinkers and despite giving up 8 home runs on sinkers the slug was just .372 and xSLG .321.

When you’re the closer, especially taking over for a closer who has done nothing to lose the job, your mistakes are going to be magnified.

Couple that with the disastrous start, for which you were at least in part responsible, and it equals being “over-hated,” as my son would say.

This is the exact scenario of why I analyze baseball with a mix of opinion AND metrics.

My conclusions were affected by a few rough appearances early that were difficult to “forget”, despite the season numbers showing something different.

Hader’s 2025 projections look similar - 34 saves, with a few less appearances and innings pitched along with an improved ERA.

fWAR (and WAR in general) doesn’t appreciate relievers much, but Hader’s projected Steamer fWAR is the same as last season’s at 0.9.

As always, thanks for reading!

Projected fWAR: 0.9

Projected Win Shares: 2.0