2026 Projections: Abreu, Arrighetti and Blubaugh
The temporary closer, the mystery and the electric rookie
On to the pitchers we go, as we are just about a week away from first pitch against the Angels.
Bryan Abreu
Abreu has been living on the edge for three years now and is doing just fine, thank you very much.
His role increases in the early part of this season (at least) as Josh Hader ramps up from a biceps injury.
Hang on, Astros fans, as there are few 1-2-3 innings in Abreu’s game, but in the end, he gets the job done far more often than not.
The numbers above were compiled prior to the Hader news, so the saves are likely low, but they will adjust as the season plays out.
Summary: Abreu profiles as a solid setup reliever, reflecting the strong peripherals and innings. Elite setup/fire guys can push 2.0+ fWAR, but Abreu’s profile is very good without being dominant (not 14+ K/9 or sub-2.00 FIP).
Spencer Arrighetti
I haven’t been the biggest Spencer Arrighetti fan, as I feel the hype has not matched the results.
Add in that he’s coming off an injury, and it’s a bit of a mystery to me where he fits when the Astros go back to 5 starters.
That said, assuming health, you can never have too many arms, and with Arrighetti having options available that could be the short-term answer (Roster Resource has him pegged for AAA).
Summary: Arrighetti profiles as a typical back-of-the-rotation starter who provides innings with decent strikeout ability but is hurt by the high ERA.
AJ Blubaugh
Blubaugh provided a shot in the arm and was electric out of the pen in 2025, a 0.1 fWAR and 1.69 ERA over 32 innings.
The reason for concern is an average 4-seamer (94.6) and less-than-spectacular peripherals, which scream regression candidate over a larger sample.
By now, you know the drill - my projection is the same as above, but I’m hopeful Blubaugh will be available and effective for the entire season, blowing my projections out of the water.
Summary: Blubaugh showed elite strikeout ability but vulnerability to home runs and some walks. The tiny ERA is not projectable over a full season. A realistic full-season projection assumes regression to a more average BABIP/luck, sustaining good but not elite K-BB, and a HR rate that stays moderate-high unless stuff changes.
Projections to Date
As always, thank you for reading!