2026 Projections: Hunter Brown, Mike Burrows, and Enyel De los Santos
The Ace, The Unknown and The Regression Candidate
As the season closes in, we continue our pitcher projections, with an interesting combination of the undisputed (finally) ace, an intriguing add, and a regression candidate.
Hunter Brown
How consistent has Hunter Brown been? He’s pitched in 31 games in each of the last three seasons, and I have him, unsurprisingly, projected for 31 more this season.
That’s the good news; the bad news is that if he pitches in any less, the Astros are likely out of the AL West race.
I argued that Brown was the ace last season, but now there is no question that Brown leads this staff.
While you may be surprised that my numbers show some regression in fWAR, this is not out of line with the professional projections, and, in fact, mine is higher than any on FanGraphs.
Similarly, there’s a minor regression in FIP, but it is still in the elite range.
Summary: Brown’s Baseball Savant page is covered in red, meaning he is elite in almost every category and probably one of the best 10 pitchers in the game.
Despite the regression in FIP, it is still elite, and if defense/sequencing holds and peripherals stay strong, his fWAR could nudge 4.5+. This is a very good-to-great season for a rotation anchor — a durable, effective pitcher with high upside.
Mike Burrows
Burrows is a tough one to model, given a 1 game trial in 2024 and the way he was used by the Pirates in 2025, so more than most, I would take this with a grain of salt (as you should all projections, mine or others).
Seeing the “2” in the projected win column doesn’t really feel right, but that’s what the model spit out for someone with Burrow’s MLB history.
As opposed to wins, I would focus more on IP, ERA (to some extent), and FIP.
Summary: The 3.57 ERA looks good, but fWAR credits the FIP more than runs allowed, suggesting some positive sequencing/luck that may regress slightly. Burrows profiles as a fringe #4/5 starter or swingman with average-ish stuff and good health.
The Astros have a history of making these types of pitchers more than they profile as, so I’m optimistic this is the floor.
Enyel De los Santos
I had no idea who De los Santos was when the Astros acquired him, but my son’s scouting report was not positive.
De los Santos was better than expected with the Astros and looked like he belonged at the MLB level after ups and downs at several stops.
It’s important to know what De los Santos is and what he is not.
Bullpens are notoriously unpredictable from season to season and one look at De los Santos’ history provides an example.
It’s a roller coaster.
Summary: De los Santos is a typical middle/lower-leverage reliever, an innings eater with okay stuff but HR vulnerability.
Projections to Date
As always, thanks for reading!