2026 Projections: Yordan Alvarez and Zach Cole
The Comeback and the Breakout
These will probably be the two most frustrating projections for readers of this Substack for very different reasons.
Yordan Alvarez
My model relies heavily on the most recent seasons of a player’s career, so it isn’t going to project 145 games for Yordan Alvarez in 2026.
I can even agree that the numbers seem low, IF Alvarez remains healthy and plays in, say, 140 games.
The thing is, Alvarez has only done that twice in five possible seasons, peaking at 147 in 2024, and has averaged 103 games over the last three seasons.
Given his importance to the team, my guess is that he is given plenty of rest and precautionary days and innings off, and it would be foolish to project him to 140-ish games.
Alvarez’s fWAR in 2024 was 5.2.
Astros fans dream of the 185 wRC+ and 6.4 fWAR of 2022, but I think those days are a thing of the past, given Alvarez’s injury history and the Astros propensity to handle the slugger with care.
Summary: The numbers above represent solid value for a DH in limited games. If Alvarez can stay healthy and available, they project to ~3.6–3.9 WAR over ~650 PA, but Alvarez has never seen that many PAs in a season.
Zach Cole
My model is also based on MLB statistics, not MiLB or college data, so for players with one season (or part of one), it will project those same numbers in year two.
Not very satisfying, I know, but it saves us from unrealistic expectations and the disappointment those typically lead to.
Have no fear, these will adjust during the season, when actual 2026 data begins to accumulate.
I’m not blind to the potential Cole has, but I’m also not oblivious to the potential for heavy negative regression, either.
In short, my model needs more than 52 plate appearances to project larger numbers like THE BAT X projects for Cole.
Summary: That said, Cole’s 2025 numbers hint at a solid-to-very good regular corner outfielder—borderline All-Star level if the power/speed combo sticks and he plays enough.
While the high K% introduces regression risk (power could dip if contact doesn't improve), the early flash suggests potential as a 20+ HR, 15+ SB contributor with above-average offense.
Roster Resource currently has Cole platooning and receiving 413 plate appearances, so that could limit any huge upside, but certainly enough to exceed my conservative projections of 4 home runs and 11 RBI.
Small samples are volatile, but the profile screams breakout candidate for 2026.
Projections to Date
