62 Down, 100 to Go
Astros improved to 34-28 as Framber sparkles again
The Astros downed the Pirates 8-2 behind the arm of Framber Valdez and the bat of Isaac Paredes, to take 2 of 3 in the Steel City and outscore the Pirates 13-5.
In related news that you may or may not care about, my orange pen that I use to annotate quality at-bats and other tidbits during games is now 9-4, while all other colors are a middling 25-24.
Expected Wins, Projected Standings and Should Be Standings
The yo-yo continues, but for the most part, the Astros have been in the 86-91 range and that will firm up as the season progresses.
In my formula, each game played means the actual record becomes more significant, while the run differential becomes less significant.
As you may recall, I had projected the Astros to first place despite the team being behind the Mariners in the actual standings and that has now come to fruition.
In the projected standings the difference is now 5 games and my theorized “two-team race” has a chance to play out with the Rangers continuing to find ways to lose on the field.
The Astros are 0.17 games to the positive in the “Should Be” standings, which is good news.
The two one-run wins against the Rays added some “luck” to the Astros side, but 62 games in they have been what their record says they are for the most part and should theoretically be closer to 2.5 games ahead of the Mariners, meaning the Mariners have had more luck on their side to date.
Batter and Pitcher Season Projections
I would have been very skeptical, say a month ago, that Yainer Diaz would finish the season at .268/.301/.434 and he still has a ways to go to get there (currently at 227/.263/.367), but there has been improvement, despite last night.
Another note is that Isaac Paredes now projects to lead the team in home runs with 28.
At some point I plan to do a post of all my “wrong” predictions and projections and Lance McCullers is an early leader to be at the top of that list.
I scoffed at preseason projections of him throwing meaningful innings, but to date “Mea Culpa”.
That could change at any time, but given the state of the rotation, he’s been a godsend.
Same Data Different View
I’ve been sharing this data in the form of a table, but didn’t like the readability, so I switched to these graphs.
Let me know what you think.
He had one last night, but Bryan Abreu only retires the side once in every four innings in order, much lower than the rest of the bullpen.
Short term, his numbers have been solid, but eventually, putting all those dudes on base is going to catch up to you.
Team average is 34.2% for the bullpen.
Similarly, Abreu’s pitching style and control issues have led to only 7.7% easy innings (10 pitches or less).
Gusto (as a reliever) has been fantastic at this and Dubin very good, too.
Seven different relievers with a 100% shut down rate is fantastic and there’s Gusto again, hinting that his best role may be out of the pen.
For the starters, I was surprised about Arrighetti, even in the small sample.
We see the struggles of Gusto as a starter and Lance is still getting his feet underneath him.
Easy innings are very important for starters as that’s how you get length.
Wesneski surprised me here (as did Gusto), but this is a stat that Framber leads Hunter Brown in by a significant amount.
Another important one for starters is the shut-down innings - holding the opponent to 0 immediately after the Astros score.
Framber and Brown have been very good, with Blanco and Gusto right there.
Quality Start Record
For the first time in 62 games, I share these numbers.
It’s not rocket science, people.
Across the league, teams that get quality starts win about 65% of the time in 2025, the Astros are better than that, likely because of their bullpen’s performance.
Quality At-Bat Percentage
Isaac’s recent struggles have taken a toll as he drops below Pena and even Cam Smith among regulars.
Team average is 38.4%.
Rando Stats of the Day
I was in the stadium when Cam Smith hit his first MLB home run on April 11 and he followed that up with 2 home runs against the Padres on April 18.
Smith has 0 home runs over his last 131 plate appearances while slashing .254/.341/.325 with a .666 OPS.
Jose Altuve is slashing .317/.353/.516 with a 139 OPS+ in Daikin Park and .202/.261/.275 with a 55 OPS+ on the road.
In wins Altuve is slashing .241/.268/.383 and in losses .294/.363/.431.
I’m headed to Sugar Land tomorrow for the Space Cowboys and River Cats and maybe a peak at Brandon Walter unless he’s pitching in Cleveland.
As always, thanks for reading!