AL Division Series - Astros vs. Twins
Go time
Home Sweet Home?
It’s a weird feeling. Shouldn’t Astros fans be happy the team has home-field advantage for [potentially] 3 of 5 games in the ALDS against Minnesota?
It doesn’t feel that way. The Astros haven’t played all that well at home this season.
The Astros slashed .249/.324/.411 at Minute Maid Park and .268/.337/.460 on the road.
They compiled a 4.24 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and .251 batting average from the mound at home. On the road? No. 1 in ERA at 3.62, 5th in WHIP at 1.24 and No. 1 in BAA at .232.
Maybe it was the batter’s eye thing and that’s all been fixed or maybe that was mental and an “excuse”, especially when you learn they pitched better on the road, too.
That said, I’d rather have home-field vs. starting in Tampa and following that up with a trip to Baltimore.
I have no idea why this team hasn’t played as well at home, but none of that will matter if they are able to beat the Twins, whether in Houston or Minneapolis.
Center of Attention
I’m interested to see how Dusty handles the centerfield position in the playoffs.
Baseball Savant had didn’t even have Bailey Ober listed as an option for mathcup history, likely because he wasn’t even on the Wild Card Roster.
Chas is 0-3 with 3 Ks against Sonny Gray and Dubon is 2 for 7 against Gray, so there’s at least 1 game that seemingly favors Dubon.
Similarly, McCormick is 0-2 with 2 Ks against Pablo Lopez, so chance No. 2. (Dubon is 0-2 with 0 Ks against Lopez).
Chas has a homer and single against Joe Ryan, while Dubon has no history.
Chas is 1-3 against Maeda, while Dubon is 0-2 with two Ks.
The best defensive lineup is probably Chas in left and Dubon in center, but that takes Michael Brantley (apparently healthy) out of the equation which means you’re essentially trading Brantley’s bat for Dubon’s glove against a team that is RHP-heavy and Dubon is clearly better against LHPs as the splits below indicate.
So Dubon should clearly play against LHPs, right? Well…
VS LHPs -
Chas: .325/.399/.610
Dubon: .327/.368/.491
At this point, we know what these guys are: Chas is going to strike out, provide power and play close to perfect centerfield.
Dubon is going to hit singles, has been clutch, and plays well enough in centerfield.
Dubon hasn’t been a slouch this season at all, but the postseason is about the long ball and big moments, oftentimes with a tiny margin of error.
I’m not a huge fan of the advanced defensive metrics in general, because I believe they’re more difficult to measure. That said, I don’t think their value is 0, so I give them some weight.
Dusty (and Verlander?) clearly favors Dubon in center and there are some metrics to back him up. My eyes tell me differently, but that’s a non-professional opinion.
The Astros must have something (other than Outs Above Average) that tells them Dubon is a better centerfielder than Chas.
Chas in left means Yordan at DH and Yordan at DH means no Yainer Diaz (or Brantley, as mentioned above), or at most a limited amount of Diaz.
Including Dubon in the lineup has more ramifications than just that one spot, in most scenarios.
Pitching Matchups
Batting Around
Some numbers from 2023.
Late/Close situations:
With RISP:
Splits:
Pitch Perfect
September/October numbers for pitchers.
May not mean anything notes of the day
Mauricio Dubon has 6 postseason at-bats and is 0 for 6.
Chas McCormick is a .242 hitter in 73 postseason plate appearances with 2 HR and 5 RBI, but he has struck out in 25 of those at-bats.
Yordan Alvarez has slashed .289/.407/.600 with 3 HR and 11 RBI in 54 ALDS plate appearances.
Kyle Tucker struggled last postseason:
ALDS .267/.313/.467 | ALCS .154/.313/.154 | WS .190/.280/.524 (hit 2 HR in a game 1 loss).
Framber Valdez is 7-2 with a 3.41 ERA in the postseason, but 10 of the 26 postseason runs he allowed came in 4.2 innings against the Braves in 2021. Outside of that? 64 IP, 44 H, 16 ER = 2.25 ERA.
Justin Verlander gave up 13 ER in 20 postseason innings in 2022.
Cristian Javier is 4-1 with a 2.20 ERA in 32.2 postseason innings, giving up only 14 hits. Javier gave up only 2 hits in 12.2 postseason innings last season, including 6 no-hit innings in the World Series.
In 10 postseason games last season, Ryan Pressly allowed 1 unearned run in 11 IP, giving up 4 hits and 3 walks while striking out 13 (2 HBP) and recording 6 saves.
Thanks for reading!