AL West Standings Update

Where the Astros stand with 40 games to go

With 40 games left in the Astros’ regular season, I thought I would share information on the AL West, the standings, probabilities, and projections, separate from the stats projections for one simple reason.

I don’t want it to get lost at the end of a lot of numbers.

Tuesday night in Round Rock - Space Cowboys vs. the Express

First, let’s take a look at what fangraphs.com says about a potential playoff run (through games of August 12):

Projected Remaining Record: 20-20 (Previous 24-22)

Projected Final Record: 82-80 (Previous 83-79)

Win Division: 52.4% (Previous 39.1%)

Wild Card: 10.6% (Previous 17.2%)

Make Playoffs: 63.0% (Previous 56.3%)

To summarize: Odds of winning division have increased in the last week; the odds of being a wild card entrant have decreased.

Trending toward division champs OR non-playoff team.

There is good news - in case of a tie with the Rangers, the Astros would be the winner by virtue of the Silver Boot stomping that has occurred this summer.

Expected Wins (as of August 12)

First, the big picture.

This chart tells you about the entire season, but it doesn’t tell you a whole lot about recency, because it’s 120 data points all jammed together.

So, I created these two that start after the All-Star Break.

These two contain the same information, in a different format.

The important thing is, you can clearly see the Astros rise from a projected 76 wins to the current 81.

The AL West Race

So far, we’ve been looking at the Astros in a vacuum, without regard to any other team, but that’s not how this works.

Here is my traditional look at the AL West.

So, I’m projecting a 19-21 finish for Houston, not the 20-20 that fangraphs projects.

I use a formula I created, which blends the Pythagorean formula with actual wins and losses over the course of the season, with the actual wins and losses weighted more and more as the season progresses.

When I do that to this point in the season, I get these results:

How to read these: My formula says the Astros “should be” 61-61 - they have overperformed by a game. The Plus/Minus column tells you these standings have 1 less win than the actual standings.

What this graphic also shows you is how close my formula correlates to the actual standings, with no team more than a game off the actual standings 120ish games into the season.

Using the PCT column above we can extrapolate the entire season to a final of:

A note - the win totals are rounded. A .501 winning percentage = 81.162 wins. Obviously, the Astros won’t have 81.162 wins, so we round to the closest whole number, 81 in this case.

MLB Expected Wins (as of August 12)

Dodgers stumble, Cubs chasing the Brewers.

Zero 100-win teams currently projected.

I plan on being back tomorrow with the regular updates.

Thanks for reading!