NOTE: On vacation this week, so this post is limited to an AL West Update.
The Astros offense has been offensive for some time now and yesterday the defense and some of the pitching joined them in game 3 in Toronto, which leaves the Astros at 2-4 at the beginning of the crucial 21-game season-ending stretch.
That and the Mariners and Rangers continuing their winning ways have left the Astros south of first place in the AL West for the first time in a long time in our projected AL West standings.
Let’s check it out.
Expected Wins, Should Be Standings and Projected Standings
I haven’t updated the graph, but as you can see below in the projected standings, the Astros are projected to win 86 games.
The Should Be Standings
The Rangers +91 run differential has them at the top of the Should Be Standings, despite being in 3rd in the “real” standings.
No doubt, that’s not typical, but the Rangers have been excellent at run prevention.
Projected Standings
If the wins and losses and run differential continue at the current rate, Seattle will take the AL West:
Wild Card
Right now, I have the Blue Jays winning the East with the Yankees and Red Sox earning Wild Cards at 90 wins each.
That means the Astros and Rangers are battling for the final AL Wild Card spot and it’s a dead heat as shown above.
Professional Projections
Fangraphs projects the Astros and Mariners to 87 wins with Seattle a few percentage points ahead and the Rangers finishing with 84 wins.
Houston’s playoff odds have plummeted and are now assigned just a 38.9% chance of winning the division, while holding a and a 76.8% chance of making the playoffs.
I’ve mentioned in the two previous posts that I believe the Rangers to be the most dangerous team because of their run prevention, but they may have started this run too late and be facing too many injuries to pull it out.
Remaining Schedules
Houston - 3 at Atlanta, 3 home vs. Texas, Off Day, 3 home vs Seattle, Off Day, 3 at Athletics, 3 at Los Angeles Angels.
Seattle - 3 home vs Angels, Off Day, 3 at Kansas City, 3 at Houston, Off Day, 3 home vs. Colorado, 3 home vs. Dodgers.
Texas - 3 at Mets, 3 at Astros, Off Day, 3 home vs. Marlins, Off Day, 3 home vs. Twins, 3 at Guardians
Rando Stats of the Day
Immediately after the trade deadline from August 1-14th, the Astros slashed .262/.326/.433, averaged 4.3 runs per game, compiled a 112 wRC+ and went 6-6.
Since then, the Astros have gone 11-15, slashed .223/.293/.359, averaged 3.5 runs per game and recorded an 81 wRC+.
As always, thanks for reading!