American League West Update
Game by Game
I thought for today I would update the AL West race and add a few odds and ends.
American League West Update
The Astros are very close to having a 90% chance of winning the West per fangraphs.
What that doesn’t mean is that Houston will win the West. It means they’re most likely to and those are very different things.
A four-game lead with 27 to go is good, but if anything I’d likely have lower odds, though I typically trust fangraphs, well except for their Wild Card odds (without further explanation or understanding how they got there).
The numbers below are mine.
To hit these Houston would have to go 15-12 which is certainly doable and reasonable.
If the Astros went 15-12, Seattle would need to go 19-8 to tie and the Mariners would have the tiebreaker unless the Astros can sweep Seattle in late September.
Each Astros win tightens the vice a little, each Mariner loss tightens it more.
A season long look at expected wins by my formula.
It’s been a slow and steady climb since early June, with a few smallish dips.
MLB Projected Standings
These are my numbers and are not predictive.
This is basically saying, “if they continue to play like they have they will end up like this”, because after all we have 135 or so data points.
LUCK
The Astros haven’t been very lucky on the season as a whole (my numbers) coming in 27th, just ahead of Kansas City.
This is based on wins and losses and run differential - the difference between what your record is and what it should be.
The larger the number is, the luckier the team has been. The smaller the number the unluckier a team has been.
Just on an observational basis this seems to fit the Astros with a bunch of tough, one run losses and weird happenings.
You can argue the White Sox aren’t unlucky, just horrid and I’d agree.
The White Sox likely broke this model this season, but I think it adds context when evaluating a team.
It shouldn’t be the only data used, but rather one more piece of data for an argument.
Why are the Rays considered the luckiest team in baseball by my calculations?
Well for starters they’ve been outscored by 63 runs, but are just one game under .500 after 133 games. They are 25-14 in one-run games which is unsustainable over the long term and 8-5 in extra innings.
In short, their season would look very different if they were 20-19 in one-run games and 7-6 in extras.
Take away those “luck” factors and you are looking at around a 60-73 team and a whole different feeling.
The Kikuchi Factor
The Astros are 5-0 when Yusei Kikuchi starts, winning thrice by one run.
Kikuchi has pitched 5.2 innings in 4 of his 5 Astros starts and 5.1 in the other.
Home Run Project
I have some preliminary findings on this, which is the exact opposite of what I thought going in.
I’ll share at a later date.
30-Day Bats and Arms
Thanks for reading.