Another Version of Clutch
This one may surprise you, too. I was shocked.
Earlier in the week we took a look at a metric from fangraphs called “Clutch”.
I found it interesting, especially in that it didn’t measure batters against other batters as most metrics do, but measured a batter against his average self in clutch situations.
The results were fascinating, dispelled some myths and cemented (at least for 2023) others.
Today, we take a look at hitting with two outs and runners in scoring position and like me, you’re likely in for a surprise.
Narratives are a funny thing. Once they’re in place they’re tough, sometimes impossible, to dispel, even with facts, numbers and even eye balls.
No matter how clutch Chas is, Dusty was never going to think he was a “Big Boy” and no matter how bad Martin Maldonado was Dusty would find a reason to play him.
For many Astros fans such is the case with Jose Abreu. He will never be Yuli Gurriel and his start last season cemented him as a complete and abject failure.
I’m not here to apologize for Abreu. He was terrible for a good chunk of the season, particularly early.
On the flip side, he finished with 90 RBI, was solid at first base and was available (almost) every day.
And he hit with two outs and runners in scoring position. Nearly half of his RBI came in these situations, which seems remarkable to me, though I have nothing to judge it by other than the ratios of other Astros.
I’m not here to tell you Jose Abreu was great in 2023 or will have a great 2024, just that he wasn’t all bad.
I also wonder how Abreu would be perceived if he started hot, cooled in the middle and evened out in the end, ending up with the same numbers.
My guess is likely very different.
Other thoughts on the data:
Speaking of narratives, at least for this metric Mauricio Dubon was not great. I see him as a replacement-level player (a good one) despite all the hysteria over his season.
I’ve been tough on Jeremy Pena, both on his non-difference making home runs and lack of clutch, but Pena was solid here. Kudos.
Another stat where Yainer and Jake leave a lot to be desired (more coming for Jake).
Very smart people tell me that lineups don’t matter. I usually defer to very smart people because I’m not very smart, but intuitively it seems they matter, in this metric and others. Imagine Yainer batting 5th instead of Abreu. Who knows if Yainer would have stepped up, but these numbers suggest the odds of that happening wouldn’t be high. Just food for thought.
Thanks for reading!