Astros Drop Finale in Colorado, Head to Lala Land

Beat up AL West leaders trek to Los Angeles with walking wounded

I’m trying to mentally prepare for this weekend’s set of games in LA, as the Astros are put together with the proverbial duct tape and bailing wire, utilizing a lineup and rotation that would have made one shudder in the preseason.

A lineup that a year ago included the names Tucker, Bregman and Alvarez, now includes Hummel, Whitcomb and Trammell.

The Astros put up 17 runs across three games in Denver, but I still came away feeling like a ton was left on the table (and bases) and that runs will be difficult to come by against teams not named the Rockies.

Expected Wins, Should Be Standings and Projected Standings

All that said, that was the 13th consecutive series the Astros have won or tied (11-0-2) and they now project to 94 wins.

We’re at the point of the season where the actual wins/losses are weighted more heavily in our formula and will continue to weigh more and more as each game passes.

Houston split one-run games in Colorado, but they are still 1.4 games to the positive, meaning we would expect the 52-win Astros to have 50.6 wins and own a 5.7 game lead, instead of 7.

If the wins and losses and run differential continue at the current rate, we would expect the final AL West Standings to look like this:

To get there from here the Astros would go 42-33, Mariners 39-36 and Rangers 40-35.

Batter and Pitcher Season Projections

Quality At-Bats

Team average is 39.1%

Quality Starts

Since we last posted, the Astros are 1-0 in Quality Starts and 1-1 in non-Quality Starts.

Record by Starting Pitcher

48% of the Astros’ wins have come with Valdez or Brown as the starter.

Rando Stats of the Day

Cam Smith’s OPS+ is 125 and wRC+ 129.

Jose Altuve’s average exit velocity hasn’t been good for a while, but after being in the 11th percentile (86.5 MPH) in 2024, it has dropped to the 3rd percentile this season (84.9 MPH).

Lance McCullers, Jr. HardHit% of 51.6 is in the bottom 1% of MLB.

Josh Hader’s xERA (1.78), xBA (.152) and Chase% (40.2) are all in the 100th percentile of MLB, while his Whiff% (40.1) and K% (40.1) are in the 99th percentile.

Fangraphs credits Hader with 24 shutdowns and 0 meltdowns.

As always, thanks for reading!