Astros Finish August with a Thud
With 25 games to go Astros flounder as the Mariners and Rangers charge
The Astros finished July with 91 expected wins (by my calculation) and finished it with 87 and while there is plenty of blame to go around, the offense is the obvious answer as to culprit No. 1.
No longer is the excuse “No Yordan Alvarez”, as the Astros are Jake Meyers and Victor Caratini away from being as healthy as one can expect to be in September.
Expected Wins, Should Be Standings and Projected Standings
The Astros have dropped 5 expected wins since the All-Star Break.
The Should Be Standings
Last time around we explained why the Rangers are atop our “Should Be” standings and that gap has only widened as Houston has only touched home plate 3 times since that post.
Projected Standings
The Rangers have added a couple of expected wins since our last post, but if the wins and losses and run differential continue at the current rate they will fall short in the AL West:
The Astros a three-game series with Seattle in late September at Daikin Park and six remaining games with the Rangers.
Professional Projections
Fangraphs agrees, projecting the Astros to 88 wins over Seattle’s 87 and 83 for the Rangers.
The site gives Houston a 55.7% chance of winning the division and a 88.0% chance of making the playoffs.
Batter and Pitcher Season Projections
Downward trend for Correa, and almost everyone else, continues.
Abreu took a hit (literally) in these projections. It was unrealistic to think his perfection would continue indefinitely.
Quality At-Bats
Correa’s regression continues as Yordan adds quality from the No. 2 spot in the lineup.
Team average is 39.1.
Rando Stats of the Day
In 22 plate appearances since returning from injury, Yordan Alvarez has an OBP of .500, including 7 walks, 1 strikeout with a HardHit% of 57.1% (178 Hard%+).
Cam Smith slashed .147/.227/.221 over 75 August plate appearances, with a 28 wRC+.
Mauricio Dubon slashed .200/.229/.275 in 84 August plate appearances with a 38 wRC+.
Hunter Brown finished August with a 1-2 record and 1.67 ERA.
Enyel De Los Santos went 2-0 in August, pitching 8.1 innings over 9 appearances, allowing a single run (1.08 ERA).
In 5 August starts, Jason Alexander was 3-0 with a 2.17 ERA over 29 innings pitched.
After registering a 112 wRC+ for the first two weeks of the month, the Astros fell to a 71 wRC+ from August 15-31.
As always, thanks for reading!