Astros Home Run Props
Proceed with caution
I’ll take over on all of them! Just joking, though you could argue for that bet on a case-by-case basis.
But first, a warning. None of these are sure things as this guy found out.
With the appropriate warning, let’s review the 6 Astros HR props on the board at the Westgate Superbook.
Jose Abreu
This fits right in with my projection of 23 making it a tough call.
Abreu’s power was down significantly last season, but other than 2022 the fewest HRs he’s had (not counting 2020) was 22.
Final Answer: Pass
Altuve’s injury Saturday night means this prop has been taken down and is no longer available. I leave the pre-injury analysis here because I believe it’s solid and the last paragraph serves as a caution against thinking anything is “a sure thing”.
Jose Altuve
I’m all over this one and don’t get the tendency to believe Altuve is aging as I heard on a podcast last year. The dude hit .300, had 28 bombs and showed very few signs of regressing, playing in 141 games.
Regression? His batting average was up 22 points, OBP 37 and slugging 44 over 2021.
An injury could derail me here, but that goes for any player and my projections show a cushion of 5.5 HRs.
Final Answer: Over
Yordan Alvarez
This would be an easy over for me if the big man’s hand wasn’t sore (the number would also be different), but given that my projections were only at 34, that makes this a tough one to take.
At some point, you have to wonder if this is a chronic issue since it didn’t improve over the winter.
I’m thinking slow start, torrid middle, slow finish.
Final Answer: Under
Alex Bregman
Probably the most polarizing player on this list and even though my projections scream under, this is a tough call.
I simply don’t think he has the power he once had, but if anyone is out to prove the doubters wrong it’s Bregman.
Final Answer: Under
Jeremy Pena
Hard over. Pena hit 22 as a rookie, my projections are at 20 for this season, but there’s a path to 23 or 24 if he can stop swinging at pitches out of the zone.
The sophomore slump is a concern, but I would argue this is not your normal sophomore with his pedigree and postseason awards in tow.
Final Answer: Over
Kyle Tucker
My projection is spot on at 29 and Tucker has hit 30 in each of the last two seasons and plans to do so again.
After peaking in 2021, Tucker’s numbers were down last year (average, OBP, slugging), but at 26 you’d think that’s more of an aberration than a trend.
That said, this number is spot on to my projection it’s hard to feel good about it either way.
Final Answer: Pass
Where am I off?