Astros Need A Break

First place Astros drop 3 to Guardians

What a crazy six days it’s been for Astros fans, first with the sweep in L.A. and then being swept by the Guardians at Daikin Park.

Nuts.

They are still comfortably in front, but the injuries continue to mount and we are beginning to see some signs of regression from the bullpen (and Hunter Brown, perhaps).

Three games to go before the All-Star break and it’s three important ones, at least theoretically, against the Texas Rangers.

Two wins would be nice.

Expected Wins, Should Be Standings and Projected Standings

From 97 to 94. The second chart is the best for the short-term picture.

After gaining 8 games in June, the Astros have stood still with the sweeps in L.A. and by the Guardians in Houston.

The “Should Be” Standings are interesting, probably only to me, because they are telling a story.

The real standings have the Mariners 7 games behind Houston and 2.5 games ahead of the Rangers and just 3 days ago the Mariners had a 1.6 game lead over Texas in the Should Be Standings.

Not now.

The next 10 days could loom large over the season as the Astros take on the Rangers in the last three before the All-Star Break and then travel to Seattle immediately after.

If the wins and losses and run differential continue at the current rate, we would expect the final AL West Standings to look like this:

To get there from here the Astros would go 39-30, Mariners 35-34 and Rangers 37-31.

Batter and Pitcher Season Projections

Quality At-Bats

Team average is 39.2%

Rando Stats of the Day

Cam Smith finished the “first half” in the 90th percentile in Outs Above Average (3) and 82nd percentile in Arm Strength (89.1).

Jose Altuve is batting .295 on fastballs with a .551 slug and 10 home runs.

Cam Smith is batting .155 vs. sliders with a 38.3 Whiff%.

The Astros pitching staff’s wOBA (.295) is in the top 3% of the league, while their xBA (.235), xSLG (.382) and xwOBA (.300) are all in the top 1% of the league.

Opponents are hitting .122 against Hunter Brown’s 4-seam fastball, which he throws 35.8% of the time at an average of 96.9 MPH. In 123 at-bats on the pitch, Brown has allowed 2 extra-base hits, both home runs.

Josh Hader is in the top 1% of baseball in xBA (.151), xwoBA (.216), K% (39.1) and xERA (1.75).

Jeremy Pena is hitting .361 on fastballs, a 75-point increase over his .286 mark from last season.

Mauricio Dubon and Jake Meyers are both 10 Outs Above Average with Dubon preventing 8 runs and Meyers 9.

As always, thanks for reading!