Astros Take Two of Three
On to Toronto
After taking two of three against the Guardians, Houston hits the road with a 37-42 record, but just three games back in the AL West.
As I mentioned last time, I personally feel like they needed 8-5 in this thirteen-game stretch to feel like a contender, and a 2-1 start keeps that within reach.
A 7-game roadie starts tonight in Toronto, the first of three in Canada, followed by 4 in Detroit and then three back at Daikin against the Twins.
It’s certainly doable, but the question is, will they?
Expected Wins
After Friday’s game, the Astros sat at 75 expected wins, a total that they haven’t exceeded since April 11.
Saturday’s 8-1 loss knocked them down a peg, and Sunday’s 2-1 victory was enough to get them back to 75.
June wRC+
Walker continues to struggle.
Updated Projections
The team is 10-8 in June with a 4.58 ERA and 4.11 FIP, including 5.91 ERA for the starters and 2.84 for the bullpen.
Meanwhile, the bats slashed .242/.314/.425, with 24 home runs and scored 85 runs (4.7 per game).
Great work by the bullpen over the weekend and a really good start by Teng Sunday.
Record by Starting Pitcher
Some regression from Arrighetti, not totally unexpected.
Quality Starts
Twenty-two quality starts on the season, 18 wins. This game can be really simple at times.
Houston is on pace for 45 quality starts on the season, after averaging 71 over the last three seasons.
Not a recipe for making the postseason.
Game Scores
Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in an easier-to-understand format.
So, I’ve converted the scores into letter grades, as you’d get in school.
This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.
Win Shares (not fWAR)
Add all these together, and you get a net of 37, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.
A slight step back for Yordan and Arrighetti.
MLB Expected Wins
The data below is through June 21.
Thanks for reading!