Astros Win Total in Vegas

Fans always take the over, don't they?

I’ll be in Vegas for a few days next week and therefore am looking at some of the futures bets on the Astros and their players.

The numbers I use in this post are as of the time of the post and are at the Westgate Superbook, which is where I placed my bets last summer (+$21.23 net, baby!) and still have an active account.

The thing about a futures bet is the book holds your money until the season is over, in this case, October, which is not optimal as I live in Texas. That means I’m not sure I’d bet this anyway.

My guess is I’ll bet on some NCAA Tournament games and then decide.

But we’re here to talk about the Astros.

Here’s the bet:

With this vig a $500 bet would net you $454.55 in winnings, or if you’d rather, a $100 bet and a win would net $90.91.

Is the potential for a 90.91% return enough for a 7-month wait?

If you take the under, you’re betting the Astros will win at least 10 games less than last season.

That’s a lot.

Or is it?

My projection shows 97 wins for the Astros preseason, but my projection doesn’t know about Yordan’s hand or Brantley’s shoulder and personal issues.

Realistically my 97 is closer to “best-case scenario”.

I’d take the under for all the reasons I’ve been writing about: Only obvious major upgrade is at 1st base. Replacing the Cy Young Award Winner and Ace with a largely untested rookie, McCullers, Jr.’s forearm, Yordan’s hand, Brantley’s shoulder and no Aledmys Diaz for when one of the infielders go down for a stretch.

The schedule has also changed and there’ll be more Yankees, Blue Jays and Rays and less Rangers, Angels and A’s, though I’d argue Texas will be one of the more improved teams this season.

I didn’t get many responses on Twitter, but those that did respond overwhelmingly went with the over, but they’re also overwhelmingly Astros fans.

While the 106-win regular season is fresh in everyone’s mind, remember that in 2021 (without Verlander) the Astros won 95 games.

This is a bet where both sides can be defended, but I’d take the under if I were to bet it.

How about you?