Back In It

Mediocre AL West is anyone's for the taking

The Astros have gone 4-1 since my last post, making their record 7-3 in the last 10 with a three-game series with the Twins in Houston, followed by three hosting the Rays.

They only need one of three against the Twins to hit my 8-5 “minimum”, but at least two of three is obviously optimal.

Expected Wins

I’m projecting 76 wins for the Astros, 86 games in, but the AL West continues to be up for grabs.

June wRC+

A big home run from Walker on Sunday, improves his ugly numbers and the same goes for Raynel Delgado.

The team has a 100 wRC+ for June with a .238/.310/.412 slash and has scored 116 runs in 25 games (4.6 runs per game).

This is a power-laden team with 33 home runs in June (1.32 per game) and 112 on the season (1.30 per game for the season), which puts them on pace for 211 home runs.

For what it’s worth, my numbers show 192 home runs, which is a significant variance (~9%).

Simply put, my numbers project Yordan to slow down in the second half (see projections below) as the heat and number of games take their toll.

Updated Projections

Each game, moving forward, will push it 0.6% closer to the actual 2026 results.

Not shown is the projected 130 hits for Altuve. If that comes to fruition, 3,000 is likely out of reach during his current contract.

Blubaugh has been invaluable as a long man.

The team has an ERA of 4.32 in June, with starters at 5.68 (xERA much better at 4.06) and the bullpen at 2.66.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Arrighetti is struggling; Teng was optioned.

Quality Starts

There has definitely been improvement in the rotation, but will it be enough? At the current pace, the Astros will finish with 47 quality starts, which is way below the three-season average.

The 84% win percentage in quality starts is likely unsustainable, so you need as many as possible.

Game Scores

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in an easier-to-understand format.

So, I’ve converted the scores into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

Win Shares

Add all these together, and you get a net of 42, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Pena makes a move.

MLB Expected Wins

The data below is through June 28.

Down to two one-hundred-win teams as June has claimed the Braves and Yankees.

Thanks for reading!