Bruised and Battered
Injuries mount as Astros struggle
We just thought the Astros suffered a lot of injuries last season, but with back to back injuries in batting practice earlier in the week, 2026 may ultimately turn out to be worse than 2025, injury and record wise.
The Astros have a 15-23 record and are tied with the Angels for fourth/fifth place in the AL West, 4.0 games behind the Athletics.
Updated Projections
We are now 23.5% of the way through the season, and the team has a 115 wRC+ (5th) and 5.82 ERA (30th).
Record by Starting Pitcher
Arrighetti leading the way and it’s not close.
Quality Starts
Fantastic outing by Lambert, outdueling Ohtani, but the team is running at about half of last season’s quality start %.
As I mentioned last time, teams win about 70% of the time they get a quality start across the league.
It’s not rocket science, especially when a team can score as this one does.
Game Scores
Lambert nudges out Arrighetti for active leader role.
Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.
So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.
This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.
Win Shares (not fWAR)
Add all these together, and you get a net of 15, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.
Yordan continues to lead, but Christian Walker gaining.
That Correa injury is depressing.
Lambert takes the pitcher lead.
Astros Expected Wins
1-2 and outscored Boston 21-7 by the Dodgers and 28-17 in the last 6 games, that’s why they’ve lost 4 expected wins in the last 6 games, despite going 3-3.
AL West Expected Wins
The good news is the AL West is so mediocre that they are not out of it.
MLB Expected Wins
Thanks for reading!