Cardinal Sin

Astros Swept at Home

The disastrous start to 2026 continued over the weekend at Daikin Park as the Astros were swept by a middling-appearing St. Louis Cardinals team.

If there was a way to lose the Astros found it, with blame being shared by the bats, arms and gloves across three games.

On to Cleveland for the 8-15 Astros.

Updated Projections

We are now 14.2% of the way through the season; it’s still early, but it’s getting late quickly in Houston.

Dustin Harris joins the Astros. Ironically, Harris was one of my favorites when the kid and I ventured to Round Rock over the last couple of seasons.

Something about the way he carried himself said, “Major Leaguer” to me, but we’ll see if my observational skills are any better than my dubious scouting skills.

The Sugar Land Shuffle is busy on the pitching staff, with guys coming and going every day the team is in Houston.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Peter Lambert has been added to the growing list.

Quality Starts

Only the Nationals (1) have fewer quality starts than the Astros, with the White Sox, Rockies, and Athletics also having 3.

That is not a list you want to be on.

Game Scores

A surprisingly high score of 51 by Burrows on Sunday, given that he only went 4.2.

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.

So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

20 Starts: 2 A+, 2 A, 1 B, 3 C, 1 D and 14 F.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get 8, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Batters have combined for 5.4 fWAR, while the putrid pitching staff is at -0.4.

K-BB% Percentiles

I’ve heard a lot about this metric, particularly that it is a better predictor of success than ERA.

These are the Astros starters and where they rank percentile-wise in this metric.

Arrighetti gets another chance tonight.

Astros Expected Wins

Being swept in 3 games and outscored 23-14 means the Astros dropped 5 games in expected wins amid early-season volatility since we last got together.

Yikes.

AL West Expected Wins

No one’s running away with the West, but the Astros are running in the wrong direction.

MLB Expected Wins

Fixed the scale.

Thanks for reading!