Chapter 2: How The West was Won
Digging into the roster construction across the AL West
With the Winter Meetings done and while we wait for the trade/signing to drop, I wanted to review exactly where the AL West stands as of this morning.
The Big Picture
Using fangraphs.com roster resource and the players’ 2024 fWAR, here’s a color-coded, at a glance, best to worst for each segment of each team’s CURRENT roster.
Rosters change frequently, so this is a snapshot in time.
Big picture: The Astros are no lower than third in any area, while every other team in the division is last in one.
Still, there are things that need to be addressed: The bench (more on that below) and if Tucker is traded there’s a real chance the Mariners lineup will pass the Astros.
The Details
I want details. Where do the Astros need to improve? How big is the gap between the Astros and Mariners lineup? How about the difference between the Rangers and Astros benches?
And while we’re at it, how about the total fWAR for teams today?
The Notes for Each Team
Quick notes for each team:
Astros
*The rotation stands out as an area of need, especially with Luis Garcia being listed as the 5th starter.
*Dubon and Caratini are solid off the bench, but the Astros largely waste two roster spots with Grae Kessinger and Taylor Trammell.
Mariners
*The best rotation and worst bench in the division. I’m a bit surprised the lineup is that close to the Astros and if Tucker is removed the Mariners will likely lead in that area, too (depending on who replaces Tucker in the lineup).
Rangers
*Re-signed Nathan Eovaldi, but the rotation is still only fourth in the division and the bullpen is far and away the worst.
Athletics
*The top three in the lineup are legit and the best bullpen in the division with Mason Miller leading the way.
Angels
*Kikuchi was a nice add, but this roster has a long way to go. A healthy Mike Trout will help, but what are the chances of that?
The Estimated Wins
So, what’s it all mean?
Using the player’s 2024 fWAR and each team’s 2024 average fWAR per win we come up with estimated wins as things stand today.
Each team’s 2024 fWAR per win:
Astros: .46
Mariners: .50
Athletics: .48
Rangers: .54
Angels: .53
That gives us estimated wins based on the current projected roster.
The Astros aren’t going to win the West with 80 wins, so where do the rest come from?
The first part of the answer is the natural fluctuations in players’ fWAR. Maybe Chas gets back on track and ends up on the positive side of the ledger or Josh Hader is lights out and doubles his 0.9 fWAR from 2024.
Then there’s rookies, current minor leaguers and other players who will contribute. Think Jason Heyward, Ben Gamel, etc.
The Astros currently have 37.0 fWAR on their roster and they finished last season at 45.9.
Still A Two Team Race in the AL West
Despite Ron Washington saying the Angels are coming and the signing of Kikuchi or the A’s signing Luis Severino, my grand conclusion is not surprising: It’s a two-team race and the other three have a long way to go to make it a three (or more) team race.
The Mariners have a higher total fWAR, but the Astros were more efficient, if you will.
Houston averaged .46 fWAR per win, while Seattle averaged .50.
I haven’t developed a theory about why some teams earn less fWAR per win, but I know it happens.
I also haven’t figured out how to use this in-season, but I have some initial thoughts. If you have ideas, please reach out.
As always, thanks for reading.
