Chapter 6: How The West Was Won: The Rotations

The Astros once dominant rotation, now relegated to 3rd in the AL West

Mar 17, 2025

With the regular season inching closer and rosters firming up for the most part, let’s wander through the various segments of the AL West teams to see where they stand in what should be a three-team battle for the Division.

I’m typically a numbers guy, but for this exercise, I’m going to mix numbers with some good old-fashioned opinions.

The Numbers

Fangraphs projections have the Astros with the third-best rotation in the AL West, as measured by projected fWAR (FGDC).

Though Houston has two of the best at the top of the rotation in Valdez and Brown, expected regression from Blanco, Arrighetti not yet establishing himself and Wesneski being a project ultimately make that a sound placement.

Things could change for the Astros if some injuries heal, but I’m dealing with today and reality, not what we hope to happen.

The Mariners come in second for Fangraphs with George Kirby nursing a sore shoulder, not expected to be ready for Opening Day and being replaced by Emerson Hancock, he of the 0.0 projected fWAR.

This leaves the Rangers unexpectedly atop the projected fWAR for rotations and leaves me with questions.

The obvious question, and one I’ve touched on several times in the past, is 37-year-old Jacob deGrom projecting to a 4.0 fWAR.

deGrom is, or was, a Hall of Fame-level pitcher when healthy. The issue is he hasn’t been healthy and hasn’t started more than 15 games since 2019, including 9 games and 41 innings over the last two seasons combined and 20 games and 101.1 innings over the last three.

The various projections on Fangraphs mostly have deGrom starting between 20 and 26 games and throwing between 110 and 152 innings.

ZiPS is an outlier, and in my mind the sane one, projecting 12 starts and 52 innings.

I don’t believe deGrom will reach 152 innings or a 4.0 fWAR, which by the way, projects him to lead the AL West starting pitchers.

More fWAR than Framber, Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo or Hunter Brown.

Looking at the chart below, it makes complete sense that Houston sits third, no matter whether the Rangers or Mariners are at the top.

The Astros have the third and tied for fourth highest projected fWARs at the top of their rotation, then drop all the way to tied for 14th (Blanco), 17th (Arrighetti) and tied for 22nd (Wesneski).

The other part of this is how much the Rangers are depending on deGrom in the rotation. His projected fWAR accounts for a higher percentage of the team’s total rotation fWAR than any other starter.

If he goes down the Rangers will take a larger hit than other teams.

Yes, the Astros are depending on Framber almost as much, but he has no such injury history and is six years younger.

It’s more than just deGrom, too.

Injuries to two projected Rangers starting pitchers have left two rookies that have combined for 0 wins and 9 MLB starts to account for another 23.6% of the Rangers rotation’s projected fWAR.

Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter have a chance to be special Major League pitchers, but all three things happening - a healthy deGrom and the rookies combine for 2.5 fWAR - seems not likely.

It’s like a three-team parlay. Each team, standing alone looks like a sure thing, but the odds of two winning are lower and the odds of all three winning aren’t likely, in most instances.

Beyond The Numbers

I’m a numbers guy and that’s what I rely on for 90% of my analysis, but over the years I’ve come to believe less and less in these preseason projections.

Heck, it’s the reason this site was started in the first place.

Thirty-seven-year-old pitchers can do great things - JV won a Cy Young at 39 - but I wouldn’t bet on it and essentially these projections are assuming and hoping for a healthy deGrom and two untested, unproven rookies.

As the saying goes, hope is not a strategy.

deGrom may hit the 4.0 fWAR, but the point is I would never project that given his history.

For me, the Mariners have the best rotation in the AL West, if not baseball, and their league-leading 92 quality starts from 2024 shows why.

That number may take a hit if Kirby is out any length of time, but I would still rank them over the Rangers on a day-by-day basis and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Astros rotation ends up above the Rangers when the season is all said and done.

CSJ Ranking of AL West Rotations