Decisions, Decisions: Left Field

The big guy won't be a regular in front of the Crawford Boxes and that's a good thing.

Oct 23, 2024

When Yordan Alvarez slid into second base on September 22nd and came up limping, worse case scenarios began going through my mind.

Alvarez had been healthy for the vast majority of the season, a pleasant, but unexpected surprise.

For me, the injury just reinforced my long held belief that Alvarez should be a designated hitter only, or at the very least 85% of the time.

Sliding, of course, doesn’t have anything directly to do with injuring yourself in the outfield, but it reinforced how fragile Yordan can be whether running, sliding, fielding or even batting.

Alvarez didn’t play the rest of the regular season and luckily the Astros didn’t need him as the Mariners floundered.

In my mind, the less stress and wear and tear you put on his large, but oft injured body, the better, plus you get improved defense.

Alvarez is a star at the plate and you don’t want to lose him for an extended period getting hurt pulling a hamstring running after a double in the gap in May or slipping on the warning track in July.

Add in the fact that Alvarez isn’t a very good left fielder as we’ll see shortly, and you have a case for limiting his time in the field.

The Numbers

I’ve covered a lot of this earlier this week, with the easiest answer being Chas McCormick playing left the majority of the time, with Yordan getting occasional starts, most likely when Framber and other ground ball pitchers start.1

You can see the Astros philosophy at work in the numbers above. Yordan played 19 more innings than Dubon and had 24 less chances, hinting that Alvarez plays in the field when the ball is less likely to travel to left.

Chas has to hit the fastball like it’s 2023, but he plays a fine left field, recording 3 outs above average in 304.2 innings.

Meanwhile, Yordan was -7 OAA in 421 innings.

The defense is not comparable and the injury risk is unnecessary.

In full disclosure, Yordan hit a little better (mostly average, OBP and Slug were nearly identical) when playing the field (.322/.391/.563 vs .300/.393/.569), but was good in both situations.

I’m not suggesting Yordan play 0 left field, but limiting exposure is almost assuredly a wise move in his case.

Mauricio Dubon can also play left field and had 2 OAA in 402 innings in 2024.

If you didn’t read Monday’s post Chas struggled with the fastball in 2024, but the downward trend started in 2023, despite his career year.

It seems correctable, but he still has to correct it and I’m generally a I’ll believe it when I see it guy.

If a healthy McCormick returns to previous form against the fastball perhaps he becomes the “everyday MLB player” we were told he was before 2024.

Conclusion: Split Decision

First let’s tell you who’s available, per MLB.com:

Tyler O’Neill (30 years old, 3.1 WAR)
Jurickson Profar (32, 2.7)
Mark Canha (36, 2.7)
Michael Conforto (32, 2.0)
Alex Verdugo (29, 2.0)
Tommy Pham (37, 1.8)
Rob Refsnyder (34, 1.6) -- club option
Travis Jankowski (34, 0.8)
Austin Slater (32, 0.5)
Jesse Winker (31, 0.5)
Adam Duvall (36, 0.4)
David Peralta (37, 0.2)
Ben Gamel (33, -0.1)
Robbie Grossman (35, -0.2)
Eddie Rosario (33, -0.8)

I wouldn’t cry if the Astros brought Gamel back for a look, or anyone affordable for that matter.

All to often the Astros bench was unusable or non-competitive in 2024 and Gamel would be an upgrade over Cabbage or Leon based on what we saw last season.

The best in-house candidate is McCormick, with some Dubon and of course, occasional Yordan.

Yordan has averaged around 50 starts in left field over the last three seasons and it wouldn’t hurt my feelings if that number was closer to 40 or even less.

It’s an intriguing situation could be interdependent on how Jake does at the plate and if the organization sticks with him for another full season if he struggles as he has over the last three seasons.

Whatever the outcome and whoever ends up in left, the takeaway for me is less time for Yordan in left field for his health and the health of the defense.

Thank you for reading!