Down Goes Paredes
Astros take 2 of 3 from White Sox, but could lose star for a while
The relative excitement of winning a series over the lowly White Sox was tempered before it was even over as Isaac Paredes injured himself running to first late in the game.
If Paredes is out for any extended amount of time, it’s a crushing blow for the Astros, as Paredes is slashing .255/.353/.478 with 15 home runs, 42 RBI, a 136 wRC+ and 2.3 fWAR.
That 2.3 fWAR is 24.5% of the Astros’ batters’ total of 9.4, and it calculates to 4.3 Win Shares for Paredes.
If you’re the kind that believes in such things, my apologies for mentioning that Luis Guillorme is versatile and “…if needed, I would feel comfortable with him for a while.”
It’s my fault.
Word is Brice Matthews may be the one, but that’s TBD.
Expected Wins, Projected Standings and Should Be Standings
Winning 2 of 3 against the White Sox jumped the win total by 2, to 90, mainly because of the big win on Wednesday.
At this point of the season run differential is still 58% of the formula (decreases each game), so a 10 run win pushes the win total forward.
Interestingly the Astros have upped their expected win total by 4 since Yordan last played.
Houston has opened up a 7-game lead in the projected AL West Standings, which estimates the final standings if teams continue to play the way they’ve played to date.
The Astros lost a game in the projected standings, but not to the Mariners, but rather the Rangers, who have improved by four expected wins since our last look.
You can find all of MLB Baseball Projected Standings right here.
The Should Be Standings tells us what a team’s record “should be” at this point in the season.
Currently, the Astros are 0.13 games to the positive, meaning they have benefited from a pinch of luck, likely due to a 11-7 record in one-run games and a 3-0 record in extras.
The takeaway? The Astros are playing solid ball and are not getting overly lucky.
These vary wildly from the actual standings which show the Astros leading the Mariners and Angels by 4.5 games and the Rangers 5.5 back.
It mostly has to do with run differential as the Rangers are +23, while the Mariners are -14 and the Angels -50.
That matters over the long run.
Batter and Pitcher Season Projections
Yainer Diaz (see Rando Stats section) continues to improve his numbers and now is projected to a .275/.307/.444 slash and .751 OPS.
Nice work from the bullpen last night despite the home run given up by Hader.
1 run in 4 innings is great work.
Quality Start Record
Across the league, teams win 65% of the time they get a quality start.
The Astros have done better, likely because of their bullpen and defense.
Record by Starting Pitcher
There’s no doubt that Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown are at the top of the list in the Astros rotation, but every win they get with Ryan Gusto, Brandon Walter or Colton Gordon starting is huge, because Hunter and Framber aren’t going to be perfect.
Rando Stats of the Day
Since May 1, Yainer Diaz is slashing .291/.329/.463 with 6 home runs, 17 RBI and a 124 wRC+.
Isaac Paredes has swung at the first pitch of an at-bat only 16% of the time and when the first pitch is put in play Paredes is slashing .368/.368/.632 with a 114 OPS+ on first pitches.
The interesting part is when he puts the second pitch in play:
When the count is 1-0, Paredes is 2 for 9 slashing .222/.222/.222 with two singles.
When the count is 0-1 Paredes is slashing .471/.500/1.353 with 5 homers and 7 RBI in 18 plate appearances (8 for 17) with a 345 OPS+.
As always, thanks for reading!
Guillotme…great glove…no bat….try the rookie IMHO
I was shocked to find out his career is .251, but it looks like that's based mostly on the pandemic season and 2022. He's versatile, but I came to the same conclusion in the end.
Guillorme made two fantastic plays last Saturday when me and the kid were in Sugar Land.