Chapter 1: How The West Was Won
Movers and Shakers: Some AL West teams are more active than others this offseason.
The Baseball Winter Meetings are just around the corner, so it’s a good time to check in on what the American League West teams have done in early prep for 2025.
While most big-name free agents outside of Blake Snell haven’t found a home yet, that doesn’t mean rosters aren’t being shaped to a degree.
With my newfound respect for fWAR, I’ve been keeping track.
Below are the major transactions (as defined by me) and a short synopsis/outlook for each American League West team through December 4.
The majority of the transactions are negative as in players opting for free agency, non-tenders, etc., but this is just the initial accounting of offseason moves, Chapter 1 in How the 2025 AL West Was Won, as it were.
Los Angeles Angels
The biggest news, of course, is the signing of Astros legend Yusei Kikuchi to a three-year deal.
Kikuchi brings a 3.5 fWAR to the Angels, which is not nothing. At the MLB average of .46 fWAR per win, this signing could be worth up to 7.6 wins, if repeated.
He also brings a new metric named after him to Anaheim:
The question is will he be Blue Jays Kikuchi or Astros Kikuchi, or something in between?
Kikuchi doesn’t make the Angels a contender, but he isn’t their only addition, as Travis d’Arnaud, Kevin Newman and Jorge Soler are plus additions to a 99-loss team.
I’m less bullish on Kyle Hendricks, but he’s probably better than what they were throwing out there last season.
Early Returns for Angels
A very long way to go, but the Angels are active and moving in the right direction. If Trout can stay healthy, they could be improved.
Houston Astros
With the Alex Bregman situation up in the air, each day that goes by makes a return to the Astros feel less likely.
They’ll also need to replace the 1.4 fWAR they got from Kikuchi in his 10 starts with Houston and the starts from Justin Verlander (17 starts).
The bullpen losses shouldn’t be overlooked, either.
I’m not the biggest Caleb Ferguson fan, but Martinez could go multiple innings and Neris had his moments.
More than anything those are more innings to fill in 2025 by a currently unknown pitchers.
Early Returns for Astros
The needs are many (starting pitcher, 1st base, 3rd base if Bregman doesn’t return, an outfielder, bullpen) and it will be interesting to see how the Astros fill out the 2025 roster.
I’ve long been of the thought that if Bregman doesn’t return, the page is likely turned on an era.
Athletics
Not much happening for this vagabond franchise, but what has happened is negative or at best, neutral.
Early Returns for Athletics
This team feels lost in the wilderness. The A’s are in the market for a third baseman and starting pitching, but the owner isn’t going to pay anyone of consequence and even if he was willing, what free agent wants to play in Sacramento?
Seattle Mariners
Quietly the Mariners have lost a significant amount and I say quietly because Bregman and the Rangers have been bigger stories.
I was curious about the Rojas non-tender and Brian Elsner of Seatown Sports provided this on the situation:
While Josh Rojas is a nice player who had a great defensive year in 2024, the Mariners are operating on a limited budget. The reality is that they need to allocate funds with careful consideration and a player with a 91 OPS+ and just 31 RBI can’t be making anywhere near $4 million (projected salary).
Rojas is not a hill I want to die on and as an Astros fan I can relate to budgetary issues, but who replaces Rojas and his 1.9 fWAR and 131 starts at third base is a question, but perhaps the Mariners have eyes for Alex despite their “limited budget”?
Check out SeaTown’s excellent Mariners coverage for Oppo Research.
Early Returns for Mariners
The Mariners will contend because of their starting pitching, but the players above are worth 3.8 fWAR, a not insignificant amount.
How significant? Bregman had a 4.1 fWAR last year, so signing him would net 0.3 fWAR or an estimated 1.4 wins.
No one will think about it that way, but that’s how my brain works.
This team needs bats and Bregman has a bat, but he also comes with a price tag.
Texas Rangers
The Astros may lose the biggest individual name in Bregman, but the Rangers have lost the most, by far, of any AL West team.
Who knows if they re-sign any of these players, but a not-so-great pitching staff is immensely thinner as it stands today.
Higashioka is apparently being brought aboard to share time with Jonah Heim after Heim’s subpar 2023.
Early Returns for Rangers
I’ve previously speculated the Rangers 2023 World Series title would cost them for a decade, due to the contracts doled out to make that happen.
Do they have the money to remain a contender? Right now it doesn’t feel that way, but it’s early.
Updates Forthcoming
I’ll update this list periodically as the offseason transactions warrant as the Winter Meetings typically mean business is about to commence.
Thank you for reading!
The ink hadn't even dried on this one before the A's signed Luis Severino (2.1 fWAR in 2024).