Final Regular Season Update + Wild Card Round Info
The Playoffs are here
Be sure to check out our new pages that are updated daily:
Astros Expected Wins | MLB Projected Standings | MLB Power Rankings | MLB Luck Rankings | Journal
Projections
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 100.0% Preseason Projections: 0.0%
The presentation and information provided will be reevaluated over the offseason.
Feedback is welcomed and encouraged.
Stress Index
The Home Run Project
This was a passion project that I don’t think “proved” anything.
The more home runs you hit (Alvarez, Bregman and Tucker, for example), the more likely you are to hit home runs in meaningless situations.
A better way to do this might be to write an article on the highest leverage home runs of the season like I did last off-season.
OVER/UNDER
Under: 91 Over: 65 Push: 5
Under: 56.5% Over: 40.4% Push: 3.1%
Streak: 2 UNDER
Expected Wins
Here’s how the AL West finished by my numbers.
Plan to do more on this next season.
Other Stats and Information
Quality Starts
The Astros won 68.5% of the time they got a quality start.
Major League average has been around 70%, though I have not kept up to date with it this season.
September Bats and Arms
Astros vs Tarik Skubal
Tigers vs Framber Valdez
Thanks for reading!