Finding A Champion: 3 Teams Stand Out
Using Historical Data to Predict the 2024 World Series Champion
Like individuals who play them, sports go through periods where teams play a certain style.
And when a team plays a certain style and wins, other teams follow the lead.
That’s the general idea of this exercise - what has won in the recent past will likely win now.
With that in mind, I looked at at the last 6 World Series winners to determine what they have in common.
Below is a chart of selected team stats and the average rank of the champions in that category and this year’s playoff teams and their ranks in the same categories.
Light red means “warning sign”. Dark red means likely a deal breaker.
For entertainment purposes only!
My takeaway from this is that three teams are likely to win the World Series IF recent history holds or comes close to holding - San Diego, Philadelphia or Los Angeles.
Let’s take a look at each team and where they are vulnerable, in a big picture sort of way.
Analysis covers 2018-2023.
San Diego: OPS+, Runs and Runs Allowed - No champion had a ranking lower than 7th in OPS+, 1 team ranked lower in Runs Scored and one team ranked lower in Runs Allowed.
Houston: WHIP, BB/9, SO/BB - No champion ranked lower than 12th in WHIP, 14th in BB/9 and 15th in SO/BB.
Baltimore: OBP, ERA+ - No team has been double digits in OBP or lower than 19th in ERA+.
Philadelphia: WHIP, Runs Allowed: Only 1 champion was ranked lower in WHIP and one team allowed more runs.
Milwaukee: OPS, FIP - No champion has been ranked in double digits in OPS or lower than 18th in FIP.
New York Yankees: FIP, WHIP, BB/9, SO/BB - No champion has had a FIP above 18, WHIP above 12, BB/9 above 14 or SO/BB above 15.
Los Angeles: FIP, ERA+: Only 1 champion had a worse FIP ranking and only one had a worse ERA+ ranking.
Kansas City, New York Mets, Braves, Guardians and Tigers shortcomings are pretty obvious.
Two Notes: The Rangers pitching set three new highs last season (ERA+, FIP and SO/9), while being close on the other 4, so the trends could be shifting.
Secondly, the Braves pitching is historically good (last six seasons speaking) and is only rivaled by the 2020 Dodgers (they didn’t strikeout many batters).
That said, it looks like the champion will be Philadelphia or Los Angeles, with a possibility of San Diego.