A wild and crazy roller coaster of a season marches to its conclusion, at least the regular season, with the Astros back in first place after an electrifying sweep of the Rangers in Daikin Park, which left the Rangers’ playoff hopes on life support and the Astros in first place.
Seattle shut out the Royals yesterday, leaving the teams tied, heading into a crucial three-game set at Daikin Park with 9 games remaining in the regular season.
Expected Wins
Three straight over Texas moved the needle a bit, but the boys are still at 88.
The Should Be Standings
The Rangers losing three straight dropped them out of first in the Should Be Standings, which reflect what we would expect teams records to be given the run differential and wins and losses through 153 games.
The Astros remain third here, but more importantly closed the gap by about 1.8 games over the last three.
The Astros are 2.0 wins better than expected, the Mariners 0.9 and the Rangers are 3.7 wins worse than expected.
Projected Standings
It’s the time of year when we add the decimal to the GB column to make it more meaningful.
If the wins and losses and run differential continue at the current rate, Seattle will take the AL West:
Wild Card
Right now, I have the Blue Jays winning the East with the Yankees (91) and Red Sox (88) earning Wild Cards.
The Astros are battling the Red Sox for the 2nd/3rd Wild Card, but it’s worth keeping an eye on the Guardians, who currently project to 85 wins.
Professional Projections
Fangraphs projects both the Mariners and Astros to 89 wins, with Seattle having a slightly higher win % (.550 to .547).
The Guardians currently project to 86 wins on the site.
The sweep of Texas did wonders for the Astros playoff odds, as Houston moves to a 42.1% chance of winning the division, and a 91.8% chance of making the playoffs.
Remaining Schedules
Houston - 3 home vs Seattle, Off Day, 3 at Athletics, 3 at Los Angeles Angels.
Seattle - 3 at Houston, Off Day, 3 home vs. Colorado, 3 home vs. Dodgers.
Texas - 3 home vs. Marlins, Off Day, 3 home vs. Twins, 3 at Guardians
Batting and Pitching Projections
With 94.4% of the regular season done, the projections below are close to the final stats.
Record by Starting Pitcher
Jason Alexander continues to amaze and it helps that Houston averages 6.45 runs per Alexander start.
Quality Start Record
The top number has receded a bit, given the Astros offensive struggles, but 73% is still pretty good and right around the league average.
Baserunning
Rando Stats of the Day
Since rejoining the Astros, Carlos Correa has a 123 wRC+ in 189 plate appearances.
Christian Walker is 3 Outs Above Average at first base, which is good enough for the 81st percentile.
In 9 ninth-inning appearances, Bryan King has not allowed a run, given up only 6 hits and a single walk while striking out 12 and recording a 0.78 WHIP.
The Astros average 3.24 runs in Framber Valdez starts.
As always, thanks for reading!