As I mentioned last week I’ve got a busy couple of weeks ahead, so the updates will be briefer, but likely more often.
The working plan is instead of one large update on off days, the updates will be broken down over multiple posts as time allows.
Thanks for your indulgence.
Today, we focus on player projections, August wRC+, record by starting pitcher and a look at the AL West race.
First up, the batters.
With only one homer in the month as play finished on the 27th, Yordan is down to 39 projected homers.
I always thought he was somewhat of a homer regression candidate, but I did not expect just one over a month.
Expect him to pick it up in the coming days.
Despite Yordan’s homer drought, I’m projecting 210 homers for the Astros, who are on pace for 216, up from 213 in our last post.
The starting pitching has been horrific, but one bright spot has been Hayden Wesneski. As we’ll see shortly, the Astros are 5-1 in his starts.
Another name that has gone under the radar is A.J. Blubaugh.
Blubaugh’s role means he won’t earn much fWAR (0.5), but he is on pace to cover 99 innings in the bullpen. He needs an award just for that.
I have him at a much higher total that he’s not likely to reach, as it would require 32 innings over the next 28 games.
Yeoman's work.
August wRC+ Check-In
The team has a 95 wRC+ so far in August.
Despite the dearth of homers this month, Yordan is still slashing .296/.426/457 for August.
Record by Starting Pitcher
As mentioned earlier, the team is 5-1 when Wesneski starts.
There has been some expected regression with Lambert.
AL West Playoff Update
First, let’s take a look at what fangraphs.com says about a potential playoff run (through games of August 27):
Projected Remaining Record: 14-14 (Previous 16-15)
Projected Final Record: 81-81 (Previous 81-81)
Win Division: 43.7% (Previous 37.5%)
Wild Card: 8.2% (Previous 8.7%)
Make Playoffs: 51.9% (Previous 46.2%)
I’m projecting 13-15, and 80-82 record and first place in the AL West.
Next update to be determined.
Thanks for reading!