Framber Implodes, Bats Continue to Struggle
Astros fall to the Cardinals in series opener
The struggles at the plate continue, as does Framber’s volatility from inning to inning and game to game.
First inning Framber was good, registering an “Easy Inning” (9 pitches).
2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th inning Framber were not impressive.
It’s why I argued he’s not an ace, at least by my definition.
He’s a great pitcher when on, but the problem is you’re never quite sure when that will be.
The volatility is almost off the chart below.
Updated Projections
9.9% of the way through the season and while it’s still not time to panic, it may be time to get concerned.
It’s a weird place to be for a guy like me, who relies on numbers for “comfort” in times like these.
Some of the numbers below look reachable, but others seem like pipe dreams.
That said, it’s a large part of the reason this site exists: A reality check on the internet panic or hype, depending on which way the wind is blowing.
Christian Walker is testing my hypothesis (and patience).
Preseason, I projected Walker to slash .251/.333/.479 with 30 HR and 92 RBI and may have been prophetic:
Projecting 30 home runs for a 33-year-old first baseman can be perilous business, but here we are.
Ten percent of the way through, that’s now .242/.327/.453 with 28 HR and 85 RBI.
His defense has been outstanding, and has been a large reason for the turnaround of the Astros infield defense.
The contributions from the young guys like Gusto and VanWey shouldn’t be overlooked and even Bennett Sousa contributed 2 innings last night.
Yes, it was a blowout loss that the Astros were never in, but the performances by Sousa and Luis Contreras saved the bullpen for (hopefully) tonight.
With Whitley nearing readiness and Kaleb Ort rehabbing, changes could be coming soon and the bullpen could theoretically be a strength, or at least less of a concern.
Astros Expected Wins
The early-season roller coaster continues.
My first projected standings will be coming soon, likely in my next post.
Quality At-Bat Numbers
You may be surprised.
The narrative is Chas “has provided nothing”, to which I would say he hasn’t been given the opportunity others have.
In 19 plate appearances, Chas has 3 hits, 4 walks and 2 successful sacrifice bunts.
I’m not saying he’s Juan Soto, I’m saying he quietly goes about his business and the Astros management, whether it’s Dusty or Espada, Click or Brown, continually look to other players.
It’s weird.
I know the year he had in 2024. I also know what he did in 2023 and prior.
In 1,300 career at-bats McCormick has a 108 OPS+, but the Astros will start Smith (I get this for the most part), Dubon or Dezenzo in right before Chas.
Last night he had a walk and single in three plate appearances.
Tonight he’ll likely be on the bench.
Strange.
What counts as a quality at-bat? Different people have different definitions.
Some of the things I look for:
Hard Hit >= 95 MPH
Base Hit
BB
HBP
SF
SAC
Advancing a runner
8+ pitch at-bat
RBI
Base Running
Apparently, caught stealing (Chas), hurts way more than getting thrown out on a ground ball in front of you (Dubon).
The Astros currently sit 8th in the league and +1.4 as a team, a marked improvement over 2024.
Game Scores
I was there for Gusto’s first start and I think he acquitted himself reasonably well.
A little surprised at Wesneski’s 48 from the Angels start, but he did give up 3 long balls and Game Score doesn’t appreciate that.
Rando Stats of the Day
Yordan Alvarez’s exit velocity (94.9 MPH) is in the top 4% of the league despite his struggles.
Jeremy Pena has an xBA of .321.
Yainer Diaz’s wOBA (.185) and wOBACON (.199) are in the bottom 5% of the league.
Bryan King’s wOBA allowed (.153) is in the top 2% in the league.
Bryan Abreu has allowed a 68.4% Hard Hit %, which is in the bottom 1% of the league.
As always, thanks for reading and look for a post later in the week!