How Sweep It Is
Astros sweep Cubs in Windy (literally) City, head to Arlington
Editor’s Note: Due to my travel schedule over the next three weeks, updates may be sporadic and may fall outside the typical schedule.
Exactly one-third of the way through the season, the Astros stand in fourth place, yet only 4.5 games back of the Athletics in the AL West and are coming off a three-game sweep in Chicago of the Cubs.
Despite outscoring Chicago 15-7 my formula projects the team to 68 wins, one less than their pace of 69.
The reason for this is their run differential (233-281).
Updated Projections
The Astros have gone 8-8 over the last 16 games, with a 77 wRC+ in that span, which was 25th in the league, while scoring just 48 runs for an average of 3.0 runs per game, while slashing .208/.276/.348.
The pitching staff was improved during the same timeframe: 3.64 ERA, including 3.76 for the starters and 3.44 for the bullpen.
Record by Starting Pitcher
6-1 when Arrighetti starts.
Quality Starts
A slight tick up in quality starts, but still a long way to go. Getting Brown back would obviously help.
With 13 quality starts after 54 games, Houston is on pace for 39 quality starts on the season, after averaging 71 over the last three seasons.
Not enough given their offensive struggles.
Game Scores
Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.
So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.
This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.
Win Shares (not fWAR)
Add all these together, and you get a net of 23, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.
Yordan continues to pace the field, with Walker making a recent move.
MLB Expected Wins
Thanks for reading!