Inching toward more stolen bases or not really?

Bases are bigger, but impact on stolen bases will be small

They’re not perfect by any stretch of the imagination, but, in general, I like the new rules.

One of the changes is the size of the bases, which many have interpreted as a boon for stolen bases.

I doubt it.

Some may have not realized this, but it was never 90 feet between bases. For example, the distance from first to second base was 90 feet from first base (the edge) to the center (not the edge) of second base.

With the new bases that distance has been shortened by 4.5 inches, or somewhere around 0.4%.

Not 4%, 0.4%. Tiny.

That’s the equivalent of shortening an NBA court by 4.7 inches or shaving 15 inches off a 100 yard football field.

This particular rule was not even designed to encourage more stolen bases, it was designed for safety, to give players more room around the bases to avoid collisions.

The impact in the minor leagues? Injuries around the bag went down significantly, while success rates on stolen bases increased 1% to 2%.

The number of steals didn’t increase 1-2%, the success rates improved 1-2%, that’s an important distinction.

Chas McCormick has stolen 8 bases in 13 attempts in his two Major League seasons (61.5%). The new distance would theoretically increase his odds to somewhere around 62.5% to 63.5%.

That just doesn’t move the needle.

What will move the needle are the limitations on disengagements (pick off attempts or time outs) from the rubber.

Afterall, if you know the pitcher can’t throw over without risking a balk that gives the runner and inherent advantage.

After two disengagements per at bat a pitcher has to be successful on the pickoff or he is assessed a balk.

Early data shows more attempted steals and a higher success rate in spring training, but it’s really too early to tell if that’ll translate to the regular season as early games are filled with minor leaguers trying to make their mark.

Stolen bases may well be up over the 2,487 in 2022, but it’ll be because of the disengagement rule and not the bigger bases.

The Astros stole 83 bases on 105 attempts (79%) in 2022 after stealing 53 in 69 attempts (77%) in 2021.