It's Getting Late Early
Astros lose two of three to the Brewers, lose momentum
Editor’s Note: Due to my travel schedule over the next three weeks, updates may be sporadic and may fall outside the typical schedule. I will be at the Astros games this coming Friday and Saturday against the A’s. The next update will be next week sometime.
As June dawns, the Astros have played 61 games, compiling a record of 27-34, and are in fourth place in the AL West, 4.5 games behind the Mariners.
Snatching a loss from the jaws of victory on Friday, in essence, cost the Astros the series and sapped the momentum Houston had built over the previous 10 or so days.
Despite that, the Astros have improved to an expected 73 wins since our last chat and appear to be getting healthier.
Updated Projections
Houston finished May with a 15-14 record and a 3.66 ERA, including an ERA of 3.93 for the starters and 3.27 for the bullpen.
Meanwhile, the bats slashed .219/.287/.376, smashing 39 home runs and scoring 101 runs (3.48 per game).
Record by Starting Pitcher
Spencer Arrighetti and it’s not close.
Quality Starts
The continued uptick in quality starts is encouraging, but still a long way to go. Getting Brown back would obviously help.
With 17 quality starts after 61 games, Houston is on pace for 45 quality starts on the season, after averaging 71 over the last three seasons.
Game Scores
Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.
So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.
This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.
Win Shares (not fWAR)
Add all these together, and you get a net of 27, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.
Yordan continues to lap the field, but Walker has been impressive, too.
I also have to give Cam Smith credit here, after pointing out how bad he was offensively over the first third of the season.
Abreu has been an abomination, and should not be in competitive games as he was Friday night. I would rather see Alimber Santa or anyone else in there.
Something Weird
This may surprise you, but Cam Smith has the fastest bat speed on the Astros at 77.3, while Zach Cole is second at 76.3, and Yordan Alvarez is coming in third (76.0).
That’s weird enough, but Cam’s average exit velo is “only” 88.4 MPH, while Cole’s is 92.5 and Yordan’s is 94.7.
That means the ratio for Cam is 1.14 (88.4/77.3), while Cole’s is 1.21 and Yordan’s is 1.24.
That’s 6% lower than Cole and 8% lower than Alvarez.
The league average is 1.24, and I would think the higher, the better.
Not even sure if that’s a thing, but it’s curious that the guy with the hardest swing has the 8th-highest exit velocity on the team, below guys like Loperfido, Shewmake and Matthews.
For whatever it’s worth, I looked back at 2025, and Cam was fifth in bat speed and, ummm, 17th in exit velocity on the team and his ratio was 1.17.
What does it mean? I don’t know. Maybe nothing. Maybe he’s due for positive regression, but I’ll keep an eye on it periodically to see if it remains an outlier.
Corpus
Watched Corpus play in San Antonio Friday night and it was horrendous. The pitching staff walked 12 (including at least two with the bases loaded), hit 2 and threw a wild pitch, while the offense had 2 hits.
They were shut out on five hits Saturday, before finally scoring 6 in a Sunday win.
I’m no scout, and it was 1 game in a long season, but it was not encouraging.
I understand their best offensive prospects are in Asheville, but that’s my point - they are a long way from MLB.
MLB Expected Wins
The data below is through May 31.
Thanks for reading!