Looking for Luck in All the Wrong Places
Another non-perfect measure
The concept of recognizing the role of luck in winning and losing baseball games is not new, but the concept of measuring it is relatively new.
It used to be we would just say something like “That Rangers team sure is lucky”, for example, without any real way to measure how or why we determined they were “lucky”.
There’s also an inherent bias. We always remember when the teams we hate are lucky, but we never remember when they were unlucky, balance those out and come out with a final measure.
So, I endeavored to do just that, at least to the degree I’m able.
What you see below is driven by four main criteria: Runs scored, runs given up and record in one-run and extra-inning games.
We use runs scored and runs given up to determine what your record “should” be and then assume, over time, teams will be .500 in one-run and extra-inning games.
This is not a perfect formula because while there’s luck in winning (or losing) one-run and extra-inning games, there can also be some skill to it, and it’s impossible to tell how much is luck and how much is a skill.
Also, you can have bad luck and lose 13-2 or good luck and win 6-3 or vice versa.
Consider this an estimate or an indication that maybe a team is over or underperforming, or at least that their success (or lack of success) in these games is unsustainable.
The number on the right is the percentage of a team’s winning percentage that I consider luck.
An example: The Marlins winning percentage last season was .519 (84-78) or 51.9%. Their expected winning percentage was .464 or 46.4%.
Why? They overperformed by going 33-14 in one-run games and 7-3 in extra-innings and the likelihood that was all skill is 0.
If the 84-78 Marlins went .500ish in one-run and extra-inning games their record would look more like we expected.
Again, there’s some skill in winning one-run games, but there’s also some element of luck and the odds are slim that the Marlins can repeat this performance in the coming season.
The goal is not to be exact in the distribution of skill and luck, but rather to point out when regression, either negative or positive, is likely to come calling, as I believe it will with the Marlins in 2024.
There’s also the opposite end of the stick, the San Diego Padres. This 82-80 team was 9-23 in one-run games and 2-12 in extra-innings.
The Padres could have been so much more.
As for the Astros, they were 20-21 in one-run games and 1-8 in extra-innings, winning the fewest games in extra-innings of any team in MLB.
Many things go into improving (or getting worse) a team’s record year over year, mainly roster and injuries.
But the teams at the top and bottom of this list have a head start on less (top) or more (bottom) wins in 2024.
Once free agency settles a bit more, I’ll have an article on which teams I believe are the best candidates to improve and get worse in the coming season.