September 23, 2024
Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for September 24 (Back Skubal, Valdez, King)
I've been a big questioner of Valdez's mental toughness, as he loses concentration easily when the smallest things go against him, but he has shoved it this season, with 17 quality starts in 27 outings.
Valdez is particularly sharp at home, going 8-2 with a 2.39 ERA at Minute Maid Park and the Astros are 18-9 and averaging 4.56 runs per game with Framber pitching.
September 13, 2024
Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for September 13 (Back Nola and Kikuchi)
Astros fans hated the trade for Yusei Kikuchi, or more accurately the return the Blue Jays got for the struggling lefty, but there's an argument to be made that the team wouldn't be in first place without him.
All Kikuchi has done is go 4-0 with a 3.07 ERA in seven starts and the Astros have won all seven games.
August 23, 2024
Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for August 23
That was one of only two starts in his last 16 that Brown has been hit hard as the Astros righthander has seen a remarkable in-season turnaround, lowering his ERA from 6.39 on May 28 to its current 3.82.
Brown has 14 quality starts in 24 starts on the season and while the Astros are only 12-12 in those starts, since Brown's turnaround they are 10-4.
August 19, 2024
MLB Regression Report: Houston Astros Set Up for AL Pennant Push, Diamondbacks Setback
There are plenty of storylines and pennant races to discuss, but one that's been under the radar a little bit is the remarkable turnaround in Houston under rookie manager Joe Espada.
July 15, 2024
MLB Regression Report: Fade Rays and Cardinals, Back Astros and Reds in Second Half
This is an extremely close division and the Astros start the second half with three huge games in Seattle that could change the direction quickly.
Seattle General Manager Jerry DiPoto also wheels and deals seemingly every season at the trade deadline so this is certainly a fluid situation, but as it stands today, I project the Astros to edge out the Mariners and Seattle to miss the playoffs entirely.
July 12, 2024
Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for July 9 (Back Wheeler, Blanco and Gilbert)
Blanco has regressed from early in the season, but that was to be expected, as his early season numbers were unsustainable.
That said, he shouldn't have much of an issue with the Marlins, who sport a league-worst 75 OPS+ as a team.
You may want to wait and confirm Yordan Alvarez is playing, as I'm rolling the dice a bit here, hoping Alvarez is in the lineup after being hit by a pitch on Saturday and sitting out Sunday's game.
June 28, 2024
Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for June 28 (Back Blanco, Gilbert)
It appeared that the expected regression was hitting Blanco in late May and early June when he gave up four runs in back-to-back starts, but Blanco's righted the ship since, allowing just two earned runs over his last 3 starts, covering 20 innings and registering three wins in the process.
June 25, 2024
Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for June 25 (Back Castillo, Cole and Brown)
Astros pitcher Hunter Brown continues to look more and more like the key cog of the Astros rotation like we expected.
Brown struggled through his first 9 appearances (8 starts) of the year with a 1-4 record and 7.71 ERA.
Since then, he's thrown six consecutive quality starts and allowed just seven earned runs in 37 innings (1.70 ERA).
June 24, 2024
MLB Regression Report: Braves Step Up, Astros Take Advantage; Red Sox and Guardians Roll On
Things looked bleak on Tuesday when the Astros were shut down by White Sox rookie Jonathan Cannon, dropping the proud franchise to 33-40 on the season.
June 18, 2024
Counting on Quality
The Mariners offense can be a struggle bus at times, but McKenzie's peripherals suggest further regression ahead and there won't be too many times this season I can get Seattle with Miller on the mound at even money.
June 17, 2024
MLB Regression Report: Mariners Take Control of AL West, Red Sox Impress
This time, they won three of four closer-than-expected games over the lowly Chicago White Sox and then swept the defending World Series Champion Texas Rangers in three games to go eight and a half games up, gaining three games over Bruce Bochy's club during the course of the week.
June 14, 2024
Counting on Quality
The narrative around Brown's improvement ignores the fact that Houston hasn't been very good and their best offensive player, Kyle Tucker, will either be out (he's eligible to come off the IL today) or likely be limited and they're getting nothing offensively from first base.
May 3, 2024
In-Season Win Totals Offer Massive Value (Fade Astros, Rangers)
At 11-20 this team would need to finish 75-56 to reach 86 wins, a .573 pace, which would be better than the .556 pace the defending American League West team played at last season.
March 25, 2024
Bet These 5 MLB Season-Long Prop Bets Ahead of Opening Day (Fade Yordan Alvarez)
But Alvarez has had trouble staying healthy, playing 135 and 114 games respectively the last two seasons, has never hit more than 37 home runs in a season. Espada has recently talked about the importance of keeping his players fresh during the season.
February 27, 2024
MLB Team Win Totals to Fade in 2024 Season (Fade World Champion Rangers)
The Rangers front office accomplished what they set out to do, bringing the Dallas Metroplex a World Series title.
In the process, they also saddled their franchise with expensive, long-term contracts that will likely hurt the Rangers for the foreseeable future, including in 2024, as they apparently don't have room to re-sign free agent Jordan Montgomery.