MLB Projection Model 3.18.2025

And away we go...

Doubt this happens every day, but eager to test this model over a full season.

Of course, we start out with a no bet.

How To Read

The model was designed to find value on underdogs, but it sometimes finds value on favorites.

In this game the Cubs are the underdogs, model history says similar (underdog) teams have won 52.0% of the time and there have been 25 similar games in model history.

That means underdogs have won outright in 13 of 25 games, in similar situations.

It’s a no bet for me for several reasons, with small sample size being a major contributing factor.