MLB Projection Model 3.19.2025

Dodgers going for Tokyo Sweep

After a no bet on the opening game, the model has it’s first bet of the season for Game 2 in Tokyo.

How To Read

The model was designed to find value on underdogs, but it sometimes finds value on favorites.

In this game the Cubs are the underdogs, model history says similar (underdog) teams have won 36.7% of the time and there have been 30 similar games in model history.

That means underdogs have won outright in 11 of 30 games, in similar situations.

At -140 on the Dodgers that’s a bet of 1 unit for me.