MLB Projection Model 3.27.2025

Three values on Opening Day

Opening Day is upon us and the model has found value in the the three picks below.

How To Read

The model was designed to find value on underdogs, but it sometimes finds value on favorites.

It evaluates the market (i.e. “sportsbook”) price vs. the Model’s perceived price and looks for undervalued teams.

Today it finds value on these underdogs.

I began running the model last season. It has evaluated 414 games and has been correct 55.3% of the time.

The Mets and Athletics fall in the same “value” range with underdogs winning almost 70% of the time in the 46 previous games in this range.

The Padres show even more value, with a smaller sample size.

Results To Date for Model

I have placed bets on the Mets, Athletics and Padres to win.