Money for Nothin' and Arms for Free

With the focus on the outfield, the bullpen has been taken for granted

I’m just as guilty as anyone. Spending hours and multiple posts on who is or might be playing left and right field while giving the bullpen a cursory mention or stray thought.

Maybe I assumed it would work itself out, because it feels like it always has.

There’s still time before spring training and there are still arms to be had, but the closer we get to opening day, the more concerned I grow.

I finally decided it was time to sit down and look at the situation; half of my brain is sorry I did.

This isn’t about Josh Hader or Bryan Abreu or Ryan Pressly, those guys are grizzled vets and we know, more or less, what we should expect.

Assuming Pressly breaks camp with the club, that is.

This is more about the five other guys, the “rest of the story” as Paul Harvey would say.

If last year showed us anything, we should expect arm after arm to yo-yo between Sugar Land and Houston as needed, so this is just the starting point.

Using Fangraphs.com’s Roster Resource, the projected other five members of the Astros bullpen have a total of 3.385 years of MLB Service Time and only one has options remaining.

For Bryan King and Forrest Whitley, the 2024 innings listed represent their entire MLB experience.

Other than King, none has options, meaning they make the team or they’re (likely) gone.

And when it comes time for the Sugar Land Shuffle due to injury or non-performance, they’re (likely) gone.

We know how the Astros have handled “no options remaining” in the recent past, so there’s a good chance these are the arms to start the season, if healthy.

While it’s easy to say Hader, Abreu and Pressly will be pitching when it matters, the other five (these guys and unknown others) will make up the bulk of the bullpen innings.

Hader, Abreu and Pressly combined for 206 of 551.1 bullpen innings in 2024.

Though I haven’t studied it, I guess this issue is not unique to the Astros, as the options limits are real and similar situations are playing out across MLB.

But the A’s are adding good arms to their bullpen and the Rangers have remade their bullpen into the second-best in the division.

And the Astros? Close to zip.

To be clear: I like who they have and think Dubin is a weapon in long relief.

On the flip side, I would expect some regression from Scott, King and Ort have tiny sample sizes and Whitley even less than that.

Seth Martinez is in Arizona, Caleb Ferguson in Pittsburgh and Hector Neris is still on the market along with other familiar names.

The good news is the Astros’ biggest competition in the West, the Seattle Mariners, have a worse bullpen on paper than the Astros and in my mind the Rangers still have some ground to make up in other areas before we can consider them contenders.

Dana Brown hinted that the bullpen was one place the Astros brass felt they could save money and while I agree with that in theory, the closer the season gets the more uncomfortable I become with the status quo.

Thanks for reading!