Mr. Cooper Goes Yard

Astros mash A's to split first two in Sac Town

Jun 18, 2025

Holding on to the last memories of the 2022 World Series-winning team and thinking the 2024 version of the Astros was something they weren’t, I was critical of Cooper Hummel’s presence last season, as brief as it was.

This year, I’ve grown to appreciate him more, seeing him play in person a couple of times, watching him get cycled through three organizations and 17 transactions before landing in left field with Houston due to a rash of injuries.

Is he an everyday player? No.

But there’s something to be said for guys who just want to play ball and will do anything to keep that dream alive.

Last year, I watched 38-year-old Johnny Cueto, who has made around $173,000,000 in his career, pitch in Round Rock, Texas.

Why?

Maybe he blew all the money, or maybe he just wanted one more shot in The Show.

Hummel isn’t close to Cueto baseball-wise, but what a journey for him this season.

And when he connected last night, I was happy for him.

Happy he got the opportunity.

Happy he got to feel what it was like to hit a Major League home run again.

Expected Wins, Projected Standings and Should Be Standings

The Astros are up to 93 expected wins despite splitting the first two in Sacramento, helped out by a close loss and a blowout win, outscoring the A’s 14-6 over the two games.

But wait, there’s more…

Because of the scale, the graph above doesn’t do a great job of showing just how much they’ve gained in June, but Houston started June with an expected win total of 86 and completed June 17 with an expected win total of 93, a gain of 7 games in 17 days.

The Should Be Standings also put the Astros in the lead, albeit over the Rangers, not the Mariners, at about the same as the actual standings (4.5 games).

The 42.11 expected wins imply the Astros have been a bit unlucky, but also shows their record hasn’t been heavily influenced by luck.

I’m a little conflicted here, because it will be difficult to maintain a 65% win rate in one-run games (13-7) and undefeated record (4-0) in extras.

The 10-run win last night is affecting these numbers and will likely even out over the next several games and shift the Astros back to “just a bit on the lucky side”.

The run differential (and a Texas loss), pushes the Astros lead in the Projected Full Year Standings to 9 games.

Batter and Pitcher Season Projections

Perhaps some of that regression I expected for Pena is happening. (see Rando Stats), but he’s been incredible this season as the projections, Win Shares and our eyeballs tell us.