Just a quick update on batter and pitcher projections and the AL West race as I head to Houston later this morning to take in a couple of Astros - Braves matchups.
Let’s start off with the basics: We are 94.4% of the way through the regular season.
That means 94.4% of this is actual performance and 5.6% is projection.
Yordan now projects to 41 homers, and 5 Astros are over 20. Current team projection is 216 home runs.
Better pitching of late, but still tough to find many days in the rotation where you are “sure” you have a win.
AL West Playoff Update (as of September 17)
First, let’s take a look at what fangraphs.com says about a potential playoff run (through games of September 17):
Projected Remaining Record: 5-4 (Previous 6-6)
Projected Final Record: 82-80 (Previous 81-81)
Win Division: 77.7% (Previous 73.3%)
Wild Card: 3.2% (Previous 2.8%)
Make Playoffs: 81.0% (Previous 76.1%)
I project a 4-5 finish and an 81-81 record, but holding on to the AL West.
The White Sox/Guardian deal is an incredibly close one. Technically the White Sox are only 0.2 games ahead (82.7 to 82.5), so I chose to leave the GB at 0.
xWins and GB are rounded.
As mentioned, I’m traveling to Houston today for two games of the Braves series, so the next update will likely be Monday.
I’ve got some exciting news coming, that is if there is baseball next season.
Thanks for reading!