Congrats to Seattle; they played well down the stretch, which the Astros did not.
Expected Wins
My expected wins formula is designed to match the actual wins at the end of the season and therefore, there is no doubt about this one.
The Should Be Standings
This is the more interesting one and it shows Houston overperformed, finishing with 1.9 more wins than expected given their run differential and won/loss record.
Projected Standings
Again, these are designed to match the actual standings at game 162.
Batting and Pitching Projections
Both of these are also designed to match actual stats after game 162.
NOTE: The Projected OPS+ did not work as intended and will be scrapped next year, if I’m unable to devise one that provides a better estimation of the ACTUAL OPS+.
Altuve finished at 112 and Alvarez at 121. Not close enough for me.
The ERA+ projections are much closer with Abreu finishing at 184 and Alexander at 115, for example.
Other
After going 10-1 with Alexander starting, it fell apart at a crucial time.
I continue to bang the drum.
Offseason/Future
I have some things in mind, such as Win Shares, etc. to wrap up the season in the coming weeks, after some downtime.
I also use this time to figure out what I want to incorporate next season.
Most of the newest subscribers are non-Astros fans and I’m not quite sure what the reasons are, but I have some suspicions.
I have an interest in expanding my audience, but I’m not quite sure what that looks like.
I also have interests outside of baseball that I’ll be pursuing.
I’m always interested in anything you may be interested in seeing, so please reach out if that is you.
As always, thanks for reading!