On the Road Again
Astros head to Baltimore and Boston in search of wins
A quick three-game homestand is done, and the Astros now hit the road for the balance of the week with trips to Baltimore and Boston.
In theory, this should equate to a few wins, as both of those teams are under .500, but with the way Houston’s pitching has performed, I take nothing for granted.
The Astros 11-18 record leaves them dead last in the AL West, 4.5 games behind the, ahem, Athletics.
Updated Projections
We are now 17.9% of the way through the season.
One of my pet peeves is what I like to call “wasted roster spots,” which are essentially guys taking up a roster spot but simply aren’t playable.
The Astros, unfortunately, have a few of those, and the team is so injured that at least one, and sometimes two, of them have to play semi-regularly.
It’s tough to win when, on any given day, perhaps 22.2% of your lineup isn’t considered replacement-level Major League talent.
With no one at Sugar Land who is capable of helping, Joe Espada has to roll with what he has, and that’s not much.
For this offense to have the 4th-highest wRC+ and wOBA in the league, given the shape of the outfield, is remarkable.
Record by Starting Pitcher
Spencer Arrighetti to the rescue.
Kei-Wei Teng will add his name to the list later this evening.
Quality Starts
A nice start by Arrighetti to close out the Yankee series leaves the team 5-0 when they get a quality start and 6-18 when they don’t.
It’s not rocket science, especially when a team can score like this one does.
Game Scores
Arrighetti recorded a 72 on Sunday.
Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.
So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.
29 Starts: 3 A+, 3 A, 1 B, 3 C, 3 D, and 16 F.
This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.
Win Shares (not fWAR)
Add all these together, and you get a net of 11, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.
Yordan continues to pace the field, with Christian Walker gaining and Correa making a push.
Batters have combined for 5.9 fWAR, while the putrid pitching staff is at -0.4.
If you calculate that out, it would mean the batters are responsible for 11.8 wins and the pitchers for -0.8 wins.
Incredible.
K-BB% Percentiles
I’ve heard a lot about this metric, particularly that it is a better predictor of success than ERA.
These are the Astros starters and their percentile rankings in this metric.
It’s still early, but here is the general scale:
Elite: 15-20%
Solid/Above Average: 12-15%
Average: 11-13%
Poor: Below 10%
As of this writing, the league average is 11.5%.
Then and Now
A new periodic segment comparing preseason projections to current projections to see how we are doing.
You may recall I was bullish on Christian Walker in the preseason, projecting improvement over his 2025 numbers.
I didn’t expect what Walker has done so far in 2026 (1.1 fWAR, 157 wRC+), and he won’t continue this pace for a full season.
Walker’s fast start has added 2 home runs and 7 RBI to my current projections.
Assuming Walker ends up with the updated projection numbers, that would equate to a ~120 wRC+ and ~2.1 fWAR.
While he’s not the defender he once was, I continue to believe his defense at first (0 OAA, 61st percentile) is underrated.
Astros Expected Wins
1-2 and outscored 24-14 since we last spoke.
AL West Expected Wins
They are still last in the AL West.
MLB Expected Wins
Thanks for reading!