On The Road Again
After taking 2 of 3 against the Tigers, the 16-14 Astros hit the road
The Astros are 18.5% of the way through the season and the sample size is “getting there”.
The Astros have won series against the Mets, Padres and Tigers, all at Daikin Park.
They’ve also lost series to the Cardinals and Royals on the road and were swept by the Giants at Daikin.
Up and down it has been.
Batter and Pitcher Season Projections
When guys near 100 or so at-bats, things get more difficult to “turn around”.
It’s simple math.
If Yainer hit .297 (his preseason projection) for the rest of the season, we expect him to finish at .276 (based on 519 plate appearances and 490 at-bats).
To reach the .297 preseason projection in his next 398 at-bats, Yainer would need to hit .362.
Not likely.
On the other hand, Christian Walker would have to hit .264 over his next 424 at-bats to finish at his preseason projection of .251.
Also, not likely, but much more likely than Diaz.
The musical chairs have begun early and another move will be made before Lance makes his debut on Sunday.
Quality At-Bat Data
The team average is 38.9%, with Cam Smith being the cutoff line.
Patience My Friend
Isaac is still leading the way, despite a slight decline.
The team average is 3.86 and the league average is 3.90, so the Astros are “slightly below average” in this category in 2025.
Running With The Devil
I mentioned last update that the team was trending in the wrong direction and that continues.
For the first time this season the Astros are below average at -0.5 and are now 19th in the league.
Detailed Pitching Numbers
Really good numbers from the rotation.
The Astros starters are retiring the side in 10 pitches or less every five innings, in order more than a third of the time, getting shut down innings 71% of the time and throwing a quality start nearly every other game.
The bullpen has been even more impressive, as a whole, though their numbers are a bit lower.
Steven Okert stands out with 15.4% easy innings, 100% shut down rate and retiring the side in order 61.5% of the time.
Win Shares - Divvying Up the 16 Wins
Updated through 30 games.
Pitching continues to dominate, accounting for 9.1 Wins vs 6.9 for the batters.
It also matches the eyeball test that the team is being led by Hunter Brown, Jeremy Pena, Isaac Paredes, Framber Valdez, Ryan Gusto and Josh Hader.
Expected Win Total
Astros went 2-1 against the Tigers, outscoring Detroit 18-16.
Projected AL West Standings
You can find all of MLB on the MLB Projected Standings page, which is linked at the top of the home page.
Rando Stats of the Day
Hunter Brown is 3-0 with a 1.13 ERA in 4 road starts in 2025, pitching six innings in each.
Framber Valdez is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA in 3 road starts in 2025.
Seven of the nine runs Framber has allowed on the road came in one start in St. Louis (April 14).
The Astros are 20th in batting average (.236), 18th in OBP (.310), 25th in SLUG (.357), 23rd in wOBA (.298) and 21st in wRC+ (94).
I’m off to San Antonio to watch the Hooks vs. Missions, so next update will likely be Monday.
As always, thanks for reading!