On to Arizona

Astros salvage one in Seattle, take on DBacks next

Losing two out of three in Seattle might not be optimal, but it also could’ve been worse.

Expected Wins, Should Be Standings and Projected Standings

Yesterday’s win was a two-game swing in the real standings, as the Astros now have a four-game lead over the Mariners, with the Rangers 7.5 games back.

The Astros are -2 in expected wins in July, helped out a bit by the run differential in Seattle, where, despite losing two of three, they outscored the Mariners 18-16.

The “Should Be Standings” show a much closer race than the actual standings, and they also show the Rangers in second place.

Why?

Despite being 50-50 the Rangers’ run differential is +51, while the Mariners is +30.

If the wins and losses and run differential continue at the current rate, we would expect the final AL West Standings to look like this:

The season series is tied at 5, with the final three coming in Houston September 19-21.

It’s the time of year to play one of my favorite games: “If the Astros go XX-XX, then…”

If the Astros go 32-31 the Mariners will need to go 36-27.

If the Astros go 33-30 the Mariners will need to go 37-26.

If the Astros go 34-29 the Mariners will need to go 38-25.

Simply playing 5 games over .500 (.540) for the balance of the season means Seattle would need to play .603 ball to catch Houston.

Possible, but not likely.

Batter and Pitcher Season Projections

Quality At-Bats

Team average is 39.1%.

Rando Stats of the Day

Cam Smith is slashing .250/.292/.338 with 0 HR, 9 RBI(3 in the last two days) and a 75 OPS+ in July. His last home run came on June 28.

Over his last three starts Hunter Brown has given up 17 hits, 7 walks and 13 earned runs in 15 innings 7.80 ERA).

Victor Caratini is slashing .377/.397/.660 with a 1.057 OPS and 186 OPS+ in 58 plate appearances in July with 4 homers and 17 RBI.

As always, thanks for reading!