Outs Above Average and Runs Prevented

The Astros have work to do in the field as well.

With the angst over the departure of the bats of Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker, lost has been the fact that the Astros haven’t been good on defense, particularly in the infield and I don’t mean just Jose Altuve.

Losing Bregman won’t help that, but the net in the infield will be positive with Christian Walker at first and Altuve mainly in left field.

I expect significant improvement at first and second base with some regression at third, and am hopeful Tony Perezchica can help Pena return to the positive side of the ledger.

By the Outs Above Average metric, Pena has regressed each season of his three-year career.

The outfield should be solid in center and right as long as they are manned by Jake and Chas, but their bats have to be worthy of playing time, Chas’ more than Jake’s, if history is any indication.

An improvement in the infield would likely push the Astros above their mediocre level of 2024, pending Altuve’s results in left.

The AL West is expected to be a competitive three-team race and stealing a game or two on defense could make the difference in making the playoffs or not.

Fangraphs projections has the Rangers, Astros and Mariners within a single game.

The Astros’ margin for error has decreased over the last two seasons and it’s likely even smaller this season given the roster turnover.

Little things that were insignificant in the past could easily be the difference between playing in October or watching in October.

Thanks for reading!